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Old 06-07-2017, 09:18 PM   #1
jocko699
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2017 Belmont

I hope this finds you all doing well.

I am finalizing my top pick but I have decided to toss all those that raced in the KD and Preakness. I really felt if I was going to catch CE the Preakness was the play and as you all know he got beat late.

The issue I am debating is the Japanese horse coming from Dubai. History has shown these horses typically take longer to get over the trip, race, etc.

I am down to 3, Irish War Cry, J Boys Echo and Patch.
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Old 06-08-2017, 01:29 PM   #2
Robert Fischer
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3 interesting horses that ran in the Preakness or Kentucky Derby

Multiplier - probably ran better than Lookin At Lee, but hit traffic late. More of a bottom tri/super contender than a win contender. Although Irad gives Lee a puncher's chance, much more value than his rival for similar scenarios.

Tapwrit - more efficient energy distribution than Gormley or Irish War Cry(and most/all others) in the Kentucky Derby. If allowed to patiently run his race, he can capitalize on anyone who falters.

Gormley - Used a lot of horse in the Kentucky Derby racing wide with the pace, in an inefficient manner. Possibility exists that Espinoza rides much more conservatively, and is able to get a 3rd or 4th in the Belmont.





------------------
Epicharis - this is a good solid horse. Unlike Thunder Snow, his form will translate to the United States. Have to respect him in your group of contenders. The fact that he hung a bit late in Dubai, and he draws wide, along with his low price make him likely to be a poor value win or place.
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Old 06-08-2017, 02:00 PM   #3
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looking at the energy distribution and the peak for 3 Belmont contenders who ran in the Kentucky Derby.

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 06-08-2017 at 02:07 PM.
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Old 06-08-2017, 02:09 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
3 interesting horses that ran in the Preakness or Kentucky Derby

Multiplier - probably ran better than Lookin At Lee, but hit traffic late. More of a bottom tri/super contender than a win contender. Although Irad gives Lee a puncher's chance, much more value than his rival for similar scenarios.

Tapwrit - more efficient energy distribution than Gormley or Irish War Cry(and most/all others) in the Kentucky Derby. If allowed to patiently run his race, he can capitalize on anyone who falters.

Gormley - Used a lot of horse in the Kentucky Derby racing wide with the pace, in an inefficient manner. Possibility exists that Espinoza rides much more conservatively, and is able to get a 3rd or 4th in the Belmont.





------------------
Epicharis - this is a good solid horse. Unlike Thunder Snow, his form will translate to the United States. Have to respect him in your group of contenders. The fact that he hung a bit late in Dubai, and he draws wide, along with his low price make him likely to be a poor value win or place.
Robert. thank you for your insight!!
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Old 06-08-2017, 03:29 PM   #5
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no, thank you, Exalted One!
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Old 06-08-2017, 05:37 PM   #6
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no, thank you, Exalted One!
Brilliant, lol!!!!
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Old 06-08-2017, 11:59 PM   #7
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Thumbs up Belmont Stakes

Here are my choices for the Belmont:

11 Epicharis

9 Mean Time

8 Senor Investment

7 Irish War Cry


Good luck to All. Have a Great day.
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Old 06-09-2017, 07:05 PM   #8
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Final Pick

Irish War Cry to win.

Good luck to all.
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Old 06-09-2017, 11:27 PM   #9
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Going with Gormley

Top 4 pace
Gormley 99
Meantime 92
IWC 88
Tapwrit 87

Top 4 speed
Gormley 104
IWC 99
Epicharis 99
Senior Investment 96
Multiplier 96
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Old 06-10-2017, 11:05 AM   #10
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Current odds as of 11am:

1 Twisted Tom 7-1

2 Tapwrit 5-1

3 Gormley 9-1

4 J Boys Echo 10-1

5 Hollywood Handsome 18-1

6 Lookin At Lee 5-1

7 Irish War Cry 4-1

8 Senior Investment 6-1

9 Meantime 14-1

10 Multiplier 14-1

11 Epicharis SCRATCHED

12 Patch 11-1
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Old 06-10-2017, 11:22 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FantasticDan View Post
Current odds as of 11am:

1 Twisted Tom 7-1

2 Tapwrit 5-1

3 Gormley 9-1

4 J Boys Echo 10-1

5 Hollywood Handsome 18-1

6 Lookin At Lee 5-1

7 Irish War Cry 4-1

8 Senior Investment 6-1

9 Meantime 14-1

10 Multiplier 14-1

11 Epicharis SCRATCHED

12 Patch 11-1
Interesting. Twisted Tom taking action. Hard to look past his breeding.
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Old 06-10-2017, 11:27 AM   #12
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Interesting. Twisted Tom taking action. Hard to look past his breeding.

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Old 06-10-2017, 12:57 PM   #13
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Twisted Tom was the value per ml, but NY money has been sharp this weekend, and it has also been overreacting to bad mls, and committing to that overreaction regardless of how the actual odds show up.


Just be happy that Patch(who may surprisingly land in the tri or super) is taking fan money.
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Old 06-10-2017, 01:32 PM   #14
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Belmont Stakes

Revised thoughts

12 Patch or 9 Mean Time
7 Irish War Cry
6 Looking at Lee
10 Multiplier

Good luck to All.
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Old 06-10-2017, 06:21 PM   #15
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Meantime

In the paddock? No shot!
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