How to handle a losing streak

[trying2win]

Very interesting thread!

First of all, some of the PA members have mentioned they have been on a "loosing" streak, or they've been discussing about when they "loose" at the races. Spelling tip...It should be losing streak, or lose at the races.

It's refreshing to see some members being candid about some of the losing streaks they go through. That's a change from all the bragging about some of the big-priced winners, that we have a tendency to talk about at this forum....not that there's anything wrong with that. I guess it's human nature. We like to talk about our winners, but not about our losers.

There's the emotional component to losing streaks as well. These losing skids sure can be frustrating, aggravating, anxiety-producing, and confidence-sapping to name a few. Been there, done that as well.

I'm not doing that great at the througbred races either this week. Been doing more researching at my past results and doing a bit of fine tuning.

I like to lower my bets during a losing streak. Sometimes I just make some small place bets for a few days. This is to increase the chance to cash a few tickets, in order to help get my confidence back. I'm not the kind to take a week off from betting the races. Certain days of the week are quiet for betting, like Monday or Tuesday. On those days I may have very few if any bets, whether I'm in a winning or losing streak.


T2W

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Valuist
Pylons-

I don't understand why you used the puzzled emoticon. You bet and get out. That way you cannot chase.

How can anybody suggest betting without having a reasonable idea of price? Not knowing the most important thing needed to make a wager is nonsense. A chaser shouldn't be betting the races under any circumstances.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
How can anybody suggest betting without having a reasonable idea of price? Not knowing the most important thing needed to make a wager is nonsense. A chaser shouldn't be betting the races under any circumstances.

The price can often be predicted well enough in advance, depending on the type of horse you normally key on. If we can handicap what the horses are likely to do, why can't we handicap what the public is likely to do? (I ask because this is not the first time you've scoffed at such an idea.) In truth, predicting how the public will bet is much easier than predicting how the horses will run...

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by GameTheory
The price can often be predicted well enough in advance, depending on the type of horse you normally key on. If we can handicap what the horses are likely to do, why can't we handicap what the public is likely to do? (I ask because this is not the first time you've scoffed at such an idea.) In truth, predicting how the public will bet is much easier than predicting how the horses will run...

Yes, I could handicap Smarty Jones would be 1-5 in the Belmont.

Find me a 12 horse field at Churchill with 3 ? droppers, 3 ? layoff horses, and 3 ? contending shippers and you are going to tell me how the betting will go? You are a moron!

How many times have most people said....."I can't believe he was that price" or "I can't believe they made that horse the odds-on favorite".

Not one winning player I know (and I know many) that makes a very good living solely from betting races would ever bet before they knew the prices except in a rare rare occurrence, (we call it betting blind) usually with a BM.

I can't tell you how many times I've looked at a race I thought I was going to pass because I liked 3 horses pretty much equal all thinking they would be between 5-2 and 4-1 and then 2 minutes to post they are 6-5, 2-1, and 8-1. Well needless to say, I went from passing to making the largest bet feasible into the race.

[Jeff P]

learned long ago when using a method that produces a low percentage of winners NOT to use a percentage of bankroll. It's the kiss of death. I will say each wager is roughly 1%...but generally it's never adjusted.

Different strokes for different folks...

I tend to look at things from a long term perspective. Over the course of an extended period I have found that a percentage of bankroll approach works best for me. I never know in advance whether I'll be hot or whether I'll be cold in the short term. For me, consistently betting a percentage of bankroll over an extended period is my chance to put the law of large numbers to work for me and get into the long run. Theoretically, every bet I make has some positive expectation. The percentage of bankroll that I use in relation to my hit rate and average win mutuel along with recalculating bankroll size up or down each time a new $100.00 increment is reached kind of insures that I have very little real chance of ever tapping out. So it kind of mechanically forces me into playing for the long run. Over any extended time period (generally measured in months) I will have several highs and lows. But, at the end of an extended time period (at least it's worked this way for me over the past several years) the ending bankroll is just about always several times higher than the starting bankroll.

I also find it interesting that many of us on this board are posting in this thread this week. It's been a losing week for me as well. A lot of what I bet might be described as speed at long odds. There hasn't been much of that in the winner's circle in the past week. It's as if my horses all across the country are hitting the wall at the sixteenth pole this week.

The one thing I do know about losing streaks from experience is that they DO end.

[freeneasy]

your betting to many longshots. i dont subscribe to limiting myself to certain types of long odd or short odds horses. when i see a winner then all i want to know is whats the best way to amke money with this horse. win place ex. tri pk3,4 doesnt matter. is there money to be made with this horse. anything else other then a win bet then the risk escalates. get a good horse. i dont care if he's 10-1 or 1-10. get your winner first. not some overlay horse that you give 3-1 on and hes on the board at 15-1 tho they certainly have their place, if your line is right. get your winner first. if hes not your top handicap pick then hes not your winner. sorry. then if you make that top pick 3-1 and hes 6-1 all the better. bet it. and what if hes 2-1. what? your going to go to your next highest pick?
well how often does your top pk win? how often does your top 2 win? top 3? top 4? top 5?
how often does your top pk win in a field of 5? in a field of 6. field of 7,8,9,10 and on up
how often does your top 2 win in a field of 5,6,7 and on up?
how often does your top 3 win in a field of 5,6,7 and on up?
how well does your top pick do in 2yo races only?
2yo races for fillies only?
2yo races for fillies at 5f?
2yo races for fillies at 5f in a field of 5?
2yo races for fillies at 5f in a field of 6? ect

how well does your top 2 picks do in
2yo races for fillies at 5f in a field of 5? field of 6? ect

how well does your top 3 picks do in
2yo races for fillies at 5f in a field of 5? field of 6? ect

how well does your top pk do in
2yo races for fillies at 5 1/2f in a field of 5? 6? ect

how well does your top 2 picks do in
2yo races for fillies at 5 1/2f in a field of 5? 6? ect

how well does your top 3 picks do in
2yo races for fillies at 5 1/2f in a field of 5? 6? ect

that horse you gave a line of 3-1 to? could be the reason you didnt bet him is because he should have been 4-5 on your board and you didnt realize it and now hes sitting on the board at an overlaid price of 2-1 but to you he looks like an underlay when he crosses the wire first, so you put your money elsewhere without realizing he was your bet. result 68 straight losers cause you probably passed over a few legitimate winners during the whole of it all. but iam a believer that once you catch hold of the right nitch? you aint never going to see no 68 straight losers. suddenly i can hear an old fight song in the background, you know, the one you never forgot, here it comes, ahh now i hear it, cheer, cheer for old notre

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by GameTheory
The price can often be predicted well enough in advance, depending on the type of horse you normally key on. If we can handicap what the horses are likely to do, why can't we handicap what the public is likely to do? (I ask because this is not the first time you've scoffed at such an idea.) In truth, predicting how the public will bet is much easier than predicting how the horses will run...

Just a little interesting story concerning this nonsense from about 3 or 4 weeks ago. My friend calls me about 30 minutes to first post at a track that he keys on. He is very sharp and also thinks he can grasp at what the "public" will bet on. He gets a little lazy sometimes and will pre-pass races he thinks will have no value. I have told him a million times that you never really know. He and I both have the race narrowed down to 6 contenders, in effect, what appears to be ABCDEF. He decided that he couldn't make any money in the race and was going to skip the race and go get a rack of ribs instead of a burger or tacos and be back in time for it. Well needless to say, the "public" made a mistake and overbet (what I thought would be B) a horse down to 4-5 and somehow skipped over D, who was a non-win type but ultra consistent while usually hitting the number somewhere, who was hovering at 29-1 with 2 minutes to post. I aimed for the center of the green with my first bets, keying him to be somewhere in the number with the other 5 contenders. My extra presses were keying him underneath with the 4-5 shot on top only(somewhat respecting the action on this ? horse (win or out type)) and then keying him 1st and 2nd with the other 4 contenders throwing out the 4-5 shot completely. He ended up running 2nd with the 4-5 shot and the second favorite nowhere while being surrounded by the longer price contenders. What looked initially like a pass, turned out to be just over a 30K win. About ten minutes after the race was official, the phone rings and my friend, in a sick voice, said "can you believe what that paid?". My reply was that it would have paid a lot more if I had gone to get ribs too!

After a few minutes of whining and crying, he conservatively estimated that the rack of ribs cost him about 12K-15K. He has done this before and he'll do it again. He just doesn't learn.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Just a little interesting story concerning this nonsense from about 3 or 4 weeks ago. My friend calls me about 30 minutes to first post at a track that he keys on. He is very sharp and also thinks he can grasp at what the "public" will bet on. He gets a little lazy sometimes and will pre-pass races he thinks will have no value. I have told him a million times that you never really know. He and I both have the race narrowed down to 6 contenders, in effect, what appears to be ABCDEF. He decided that he couldn't make any money in the race and was going to skip the race and go get a rack of ribs instead of a burger or tacos and be back in time for it. Well needless to say, the "public" made a mistake and overbet (what I thought would be B) a horse down to 4-5 and somehow skipped over D, who was a non-win type but ultra consistent while usually hitting the number somewhere, who was hovering at 29-1 with 2 minutes to post. I aimed for the center of the green with my first bets, keying him to be somewhere in the number with the other 5 contenders. My extra presses were keying him underneath with the 4-5 shot on top only(somewhat respecting the action on this ? horse (win or out type)) and then keying him 1st and 2nd with the other 4 contenders throwing out the 4-5 shot completely. He ended up running 2nd with the 4-5 shot and the second favorite nowhere while being surrounded by the longer price contenders. What looked initially like a pass, turned out to be just over a 30K win. About ten minutes after the race was official, the phone rings and my friend, in a sick voice, said "can you believe what that paid?". My reply was that it would have paid a lot more if I had gone to get ribs too!

After a few minutes of whining and crying, he conservatively estimated that the rack of ribs cost him about 12K-15K. He has done this before and he'll do it again. He just doesn't learn.

Your story illustrates that you may miss some opportunities if you try to predict the odds in advance. True enough, but not really relevant. I also said it "depends on what type of horse you tend to key on". It can work for some people well enough to make a decent profit is my point. Will you be right about every race? Of course not. But it is certainly possible to be right often enough to still make money with the right kind of plays (generally "spot play" type situations).

And if you want to get sophisticated about it, you can. I've been saving real-time tote board pool information for years -- you can not only predict what the likely odds are going to be, but you can predict very accurate probability distributions of the odds and be able to know just how likely it is for any specific given odds to occur (based on the usual handicapping information we know about the horse along with the morning line, etc). Once you know that, you can allocate your bets accordingly just like you would allocate an investment in the stock market. If you invest in a company, do you know exactly what the rate of return is going to be? No? I guess it is impossible to make money in the stock market because you have to make an educated guess on the price, huh? It also shouldn't be lost on you that even if you are watching the tote board, the prices can and will change after you bet, even if you bet 5 seconds before the cut-off. So you STILL have to guess the price, albeit with a smaller likelihood of a gross error. So even in that case, if I think the price is going to go up or down after the late money comes in, I'll adjust accordingly. The basic process is essentially unchanged if you bet at 1 minute to post or 6 hours to post. Only the time frame has changed, which increases the possibility of larger errors. But as long as you know that, then you can account for it.

The benefit of betting this way is, of course, that you can make all your bets in 10 minutes and be done for the day. You'll miss some opportunities, yes, but maybe having all that free time available is worth something to some people, eh? Maybe you could be doing something even more profitable (personally or financially) with that time?

You seem to think that anyone that disagrees with you or doesn't act just as your "winning friends" do is a moron. Which tells me that you are... well, a moron. Why do so many people seem to think their way is the only way? It's just absurd.

[dav4463]

I understand losing streaks and I ....."was"... a winning player. That was last year ! This year has not been profitable. It's not just the losing streak of 0 for 18, it is more the way some of them went. Either totally out of the race with no chance, or steward's inquiry, jockey objection, etc. that looks like a no-brainer on the replay......"NEVER going my way !!!! " At least it feels like that when you are losing. But, on the bright side, that 0 for 68 makes my streak seem like nothing !

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by GameTheory
The benefit of betting this way is, of course, that you can make all your bets in 10 minutes and be done for the day. You'll miss some opportunities, yes, but maybe having all that free time available is worth something to some people, eh? Maybe you could be doing something even more profitable (personally or financially) with that time?

You have a point. You usually get out of something what you put into something. Since I have switched in the last three years to making betting my strength instead of handicapping, I would love to cut the time I waste betting from 100 hours a week to 1 hour. One problem though, I can't live on the $5000 a year that work load would figure to return to me.

Originally posted by GameTheory
You seem to think that anyone that disagrees with you or doesn't act just as your "winning friends" do is a moron. Which tells me that you are... well, a moron. Why do so many people seem to think their way is the only way? It's just absurd.

You are right again. I apologize for thinking that it is a must to take into account the odds of horses before you make your wager. I was wrong. I was sure it was a big piece of the puzzle when trying to extract money from races, but after thinking about it again, I am the moron for not realizing that odds don't mean anything, the public never makes mistakes, and I am the only one here that can't project accurate closing odds for each horse.

I am once again very sorry about my mistake.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by GameTheory

You seem to think that anyone that disagrees with you or doesn't act just as your "winning friends" do is a moron. Which tells me that you are... well, a moron. Why do so many people seem to think their way is the only way? It's just absurd.

Most all of my "winning friends", were once my "losing friends" until I taught them how to attack races with my wagering methods. Don't worry, I was called much worse than moron by them when I was explaining how to extract money from their opinions.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
You have a point. You usually get out of something what you put into something. Since I have switched in the last three years to making betting my strength instead of handicapping, I would love to cut the time I waste betting from 100 hours a week to 1 hour. One problem though, I can't live on the $5000 a year that work load would figure to return to me.

I'm talking about betting too, or at least handicapping the public as well as the horses, which I see as part of the process. Maybe in another 3 years you'll be doing the same. I agree with you about emphasizing the importance of wagering technique. But this is wagering technique I'm talking about. And I'm certainly not saying anyone must or should do this. Only that some people *CAN* and still make money. There are lots of people that would be quite glad to make an extra $5000 a year without spending much time to do it (that assumes they've got some quick automated way to handicap as well) and still have all day to do their normal job or whatever.

You are right again. I apologize for thinking that it is a must to take into account the odds of horses before you make your wager. I was wrong. I was sure it was a big piece of the puzzle when trying to extract money from races, but after thinking about it again, I am the moron for not realizing that odds don't mean anything, the public never makes mistakes, and I am the only one here that can't project accurate closing odds for each horse.

I am once again very sorry about my mistake.

Please find me the part when I said you don't account for the odds of the horse. Please find me the part where I said the odds don't mean anything. Please find me the part where I said the public never makes mistakes. We live off their mistakes. I'm saying that many of their mistakes are predictable, and you can often predict the very meaningful odds in advance close enough to know if something is going to be a decent overlay or not. Of course you account for the odds of the horse -- that's what we're talking about. You can use an estimate that is made at 1 minute to post (still only an estimate), or you can use an estimate that is made sometime before that.

If we had a contest where we took a hundred races and you picked a horse in each race to win, and I picked a horse in each race to be the betting favorite, who do you think would be right more often? (Assume you can look at the tote board when making your selections, and I can't.) Is it easier to predict who the favorite will be, or who the winner will be? I would say picking the favorite is much much easier.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Most all of my "winning friends", were once my "losing friends" until I taught them how to attack races with my wagering methods. Don't worry, I was called much worse than moron by them when I was explaining how to extract money from their opinions.

I'm not worried, and if you offered some useful method instead of spending your time calling people names and acting superior then you wouldn't get called moron or anything worse.

[ponyplayer]

Good thread. Now let me start off by saying I am a recreational player, I don't do this for a living, I just love the game.

I think we all have been playing long enough to know that losing streaks are just that, a streak. Winning streaks are streaks too. We just have to have the mental tenacity (and the bank roll) to weather out the losing streak.

When I get cold, I take a step back, maybe read a new handicapping book, read all these long posts on player forums, and try to regain my confidence with spot wagers...eventually you get on a winning streak again and we're all smiles.

For me it's a game, I do it for the enjoyment, If I win, that's gravey. Some people spend a lot of money on bass boats, or other such extra-curricular activities, I play the ponies....same-same for me.

[Exactaman]

It has been nine weeks now of almost unbroken losing. Was feeling kind of bad about it today, and was talking about it with my 9 year old daughter. She assured me that it's impossible to lose EVERY time.