How to handle a losing streak

[Valuist]

Pylons-

I don't understand why you used the puzzled emoticon. You bet and get out. That way you cannot chase.

[Dick Schmidt]

CJ,

Of course that quote looks familiar. It's a quote. I don't make this stuff up, I steal it!

Dick

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." -Robert Heinlein

[The Skeptic]

I'll re-affirm Dick Schmidts comment and the other comment as a "hiccup".

At the risk of sounding arrogant which is not the intent...by the shear fact you asked the question confirms you're not a winning player. Sorry as you never said you were in the first place. If you can admit this to yourself we can build upon that.

Why do I say this is proof? You need to understand loosing streaks. I'm not going to get my probability software out or my math text book but lets use simple logic here.

Public Handicappers win approx 30%. How often do you see them go 0 for 10. Happens all the time. I've seen them go 2 or 3 days yet they still get 30%.

Flip a Coin. 50% How often will you say get 4 or 5 heads in row if you flip it 100 times. It'll happen but not unusual. Wouldn't surprise me if you had 6,7 or 8 or 8 in a row. You'll still end up at 50% over time.

Pro Football against the line...I believe what 65% (60%) if you're good...70% if awesome...(I could be wrong as I don't bet football). How often will a guy loose 4, 5 or 6 in a row? It'll happen but 65% should be around the number in the end?

The point to these numbers...your 17 races is not unreasonable at all when you're playing a game that max is in the 30 some percent range. It's a mild hiccup.

I don't want to brag on what my loosing streak is but lets put it into context. My winning selections hit about 17% of the time. I should expect 20,30,40,50,60+ loosing streaks...with the 20-30 being the norm when it in fact is a streak at all.

[Valuist]

FWIW, sports bettors shoot for 55-60%. Over the long haul NOBODY will top 60% over 1000 plays. Yeah guys may go 40-20 or 35-15 but over 1000 plays they won't win over 600.

[shots]

Track your picks that lost and give them an extra close look the next time out. You might just bet him a race early, and the next one is the that gets the cash. You have to learn something from each lost. Make a short check list of factors for you picks. You might find a weak spot that is having a dominating effect on your handicapping or selections

[timtam]

I keep hearing about guys having huge losing streaks and then come out and win X% in the next few days. But how did you wager to continue betting with a depleted bankroll. I'm sure somebody either decreases or increases their wagers while they are having a long losing streak. Did you stop betting and then miracuously have a winning streak and find money to start betting again. How did you bet to maintain capital while your going thru these 17 and 18 race losing streaks? Does someone really keep betting thru these streaks or are these paper wagers like some of the books I've read??

[penguinfan]

Tinman, I can add this, I am currently in the midst of an odds defying streak and yes I am continuing to bet, I have had to reduce my base wager a couple times and am now to the point where if I reduce it again it will take me forever to get back in the black for the year. That brings up an interesting point as I will have to catch a nice streak to make up for the losses considering I am now wagering less per bet. Next step will be to stop and reload, that will be the only choice as a smaller wager than I am at now will just be useless. I started with a bankroll and tried to manage it the best I could, but the best management won't help much when you just are not cashing tickets. I am not saying I am personally broke, just that I may have to reload my wagering bankroll, I don't think anyone can play out of their everyday checking account and expect to do well over the long haul. I will take a break before reloading though.

Penguinfan

[headhawg]

Hmmm... I think that if anyone is in danger of tapping out his/her starting bankroll was too small (% of bankroll bet per race too aggressive), and you might need to rethink your money management strategy.

[JimG]

Originally posted by penguinfan
Tinman, I can add this, I am currently in the midst of an odds defying streak and yes I am continuing to bet, I have had to reduce my base wager a couple times and am now to the point where if I reduce it again it will take me forever to get back in the black for the year. That brings up an interesting point as I will have to catch a nice streak to make up for the losses considering I am now wagering less per bet. Next step will be to stop and reload, that will be the only choice as a smaller wager than I am at now will just be useless. I started with a bankroll and tried to manage it the best I could, but the best management won't help much when you just are not cashing tickets. I am not saying I am personally broke, just that I may have to reload my wagering bankroll, I don't think anyone can play out of their everyday checking account and expect to do well over the long haul. I will take a break before reloading though.

Penguinfan

Penguinfan,

Sorry to hear about your run of losers. As they say, "Been there, done that, got the T-shirt".

My advice is to really study the wagers you have made over this period and take a break from playing. Are you playing differently than when things were going well? Different tracks? Different types of wagers? What types of races are you "in the ballpark"?

I think if you take the time to honestly study your losing streak, it will serve you well. If the problem is too many losers in a row, then your money management needs review. Likely you are playing too much per playable race or the streak would not concern you.

Whatever the case, I am sure it will turn around and wish you much success.

Jim

[JackS]

Penguinfan- If your confident in your methods, things will eventually change for the better. Depending on your type of play, i.e- high risk, high profit exotics, losing streaks are to be expected. The main thing to do now is to get your confidence back by playing less money and hopefull cashing small tickets. Bet size can increase at a later time. Don't chase lost money, this is what keeps Vegas in business. Small action bets are now preffered over bets for big profits.

[timtam]

Penguinfan,

I appreciate your honesty and the fact that you did reduce your wager size while you're in this hopefully soon defunct losing streak. That was what I was hoping to hear from some of these other guys who are mired in a slump. Do they drop down so low that it will take a long time just to get back into the black? Do they change from maybe a 4 horse box to a 3 horse box or maybe backing a key with 3 horses as opposed to 4?? I wish the guys who had the 17 or 18+ losing streaks would tell us exactly what they do to get back into the "game'' and into the black. I now know you have reduced your bets and once again hope your losing streak ends now. Thanks again..

[Jeff P]

timtam posted:

But how did you wager to continue betting with a depleted bankroll. I'm sure somebody either decreases or increases their wagers while they are having a long losing streak.

I use a percentage of bankroll approach, generally betting agout 2 percent of bankroll to win on each play. I sometimes recalculate the bankroll size several times during the day- I try to keep it rounded to the nearest $100.00 increment. Doing this results in two things: 1. During a losing streak your bankroll will shrink, and during extended streaks, it shrinks to the point where it becomes (to the mind's eye anyway) almost trivial when compared to its last high point. When this happens, don't get discouraged. Because 2. During a winning streak it will grow, and during a really hot streak, it can grow to the point where the size of it becomes (again to the mind's eye) gargantuan when compared to its last low point. If you can somehow remove the human element of worrying about it, and if you really are making profitable plays, the streak will eventually end and you will begin regressing back to your own mean.

[pmd62ndst]

I think this thread has jinxed me. I am now currently going through one of my worst dry spells ever. Yesterday, I went 0 for 30 which puts the 4 day total at 1-68.

My wager strategy calls for me to wager from 5-1 to 18-1 odds. Looking back, chalk has had a hell of week with an unusually high hit rate on the races I wager on.

My bankroll is incredible low right now along with my attitude. Maybe it's time to take a break.

PMD

[The Skeptic]

I learned long ago when using a method that produces a low percentage of winners NOT to use a percentage of bankroll. It's the kiss of death. I will say each wager is roughly 1%...but generally it's never adjusted. "Kelly" will not work if you loose alot of races in a row. "Kelly" has promise if you don't endure long loosing streaks. A quick example...how will you capitilize when you suddenly get hot and you're wager is still just 1% of your now depleted bankroll? This is why "Kelly" has no promise when wagering something that wins 15%.

Someone asked how do you get you money back after loosing 20 or 40 races? It could be just be a few days...as my play produces alot of plays. Secondly and to the point....let's say I just lost 50 races in a row and I was hypothetically wagering $2 a race. I just lost $100 right? 2 $50 horses suddenly makes me even. It's really that simple.

Back to my example in the first paragraph: If I just endured a 50 race loosing streak and assuming $2 was my original 1% of bankroll.....I just lost $100. Now my bank roll is down to $100. If I believed in the power of "Kelly" my wagers would now be adjusted down to $1 each. So now I hit my 2 $50 horses and instead of getting my $100 back I only get $50. It's going to be that much more difficult to get into the "profitable zone" again. This again is why "Kelly" is so dangerous. "Kelly" would be ideal for Sports Wagering where succesful hits are far more frequent and long loosing streak less prevalent.

Honestly here: When I finally became a winner was when I learned how to loose. How did I learn how to loose? I learned by understanding the mathematics behind potential loosing streaks. They're par for the territory.

Note: I'm using "Kelly" and "Percentage of Bankroll" interchangeably.

PMD - if you want to email me privately I have a suggestion?

[penguinfan]

Thanks for the well wishes guys.
JimG I actually only play 2 tracks on a daily basis and it has really been a case of near misses coupled with some bad plays, but who among us has not bet on a horse that limped home last. I have had some unbelievable beats at the wire and I could direct you to replay via TSNBET of a race I still think I won with a 12-1 horse that somehow got second, but to answer your question I am still in most of the races I bet, running 2nd and 3rd alot an I know this stuff evens out eventually, but it is very disheartening when you are mired in the middle of it.

Tinman- I really only play win tickets with the occasional all/1 to back it up and kinda use a % of bankroll but I maybe wait too long to adjust it down and I know I wait too long to adjust it upwards so I wasn't taking full advantage of the times when I was ahead and now playing catch up is difficult with smaller than normal wagers so I will have to rethink my money management strategy for sure, but it did serve me well the previous 2 years as I did make a profit in 02 and 03, nothing you could live on but it payed for my hobbby and a little drinking money, this year is another story so far, but I got 6 months to make good on this, we'll see.

Penguinfan