track variants

[PSTfredk]

Is there a way to make your own track variants like you would make your own betting line for example. I'm lost in tring to make
my own variant and just looking for a heads up on how to
proceed. I believe that it's the secret to final numbers on all races.

[JackS]

Fred- If you have pars for your track, you can easily create a daily variant. Separate sprint, routes, dirt and turf. Keep a daily log on final times for different class levels male or female, 2,3yo, 3up and 4up. The variant you create will be the difference fast/slow from your par sheet. Since most pars are created from times performed by older horses, you might consider a point system adjustment for younger horses to save time. Also a single class level can be used and then adjusted for all class levels. Plenty of info in various books can clear things up if you have any doubts or questions..

[PSTfredk]

thanks for your help.
can you name some books that might help me

[cj]

Picking Winners, by Andy Beyer
Thoroughbred Handicapping: State of the Art, by William Quirin
Figure Handicapping, by James Quinn
Betting Thoroughbreds, by Steve Davidowitz

These all talk about variants, I'm sure there are others I'm forgetting right now.

[Tom]

Revised Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohammer

[kenwoodallpromos]

"Daily" means nothing as seperating daily final times by sex, dlass, distance, whatever gives you a reference (standard) of 2 or 3 races to judge how the track affected the horses.
Previously I suggested one could calculate final times for dirt races for the place horse, then use plus or minus notation depending on if the average for the day is under or over 11 1/2 seconds per furlong.

[PSTfredk]

IT'S ALLgreek to me. i'm totally lost on how to start. i would just like to do belmont which is my track of choice. drf will have something like speed 78-15 what does that mean, is 15 the variant and if so how does it convert into hundreds of a second.

[cj]

Read the books I mentioned if you are really interested.

As for the 78-15, the fifteen is the variant, and it means the track was 15 1/5s of a second slower, on average, than the best times at the track over the last three years. There is a pretty good description of how it is calculated on the DRF site, search around there.

[JackS]

Fred- A very simple way is to use the printed variant in the DRF. Determine what the average is for sprint and routes over a few days on a track rated fast. This method is also described in a few books and is described as a PAR VARIANT. If the average at Belmont ranges between 14-18 for sprints the average is 16. Using this method a pace line at Bel rated 18 would be adjusted by 2/5 slow. Not as accurate perhaps as the more involved methods but could be accurate enough to give you an adjustment that only a relative few may have. This could also give you an edge at times when the TV has been under or over estimated . I don't (at present) use a variant, but if I did, this is the way I'd do it because of the time saving factor.

[kenwoodallpromos]

DFR converted FROM seconds to variant; Each point is 1/5 second.

[PSTfredk]

THANK YOU ALL

I hope I can put it to good use, it will take a while to get every
thing in place, I really appreciate your help.
there is not much help for a bad speller.

[Secretariat]

Fredd,

Also if you don' want to accumlate pars, you can use the projection method, based on your estimated time (DRF SR_TV) of the race?

[JackS]

Fred- In the above example using 2/5 for a variant of 18 at Bel ,maybe an explaination of how this time adjustment might be used. Convert 2/5 to 4/10= 0.4 tenths of a second. My feeling is that the variant is most heavily applicable to final time but, some part of the variant should probably be applied to earlier parts of the race. My rec would be 0.2 tenths to final and 0.1 tenth each to the first call and pace call. If your opinion is different, change the adjustment distribution to your own idea that may more accrurately reflect what is actually happening. The only problem I have with using the full value for final time is in the event of an off day. If Bel should post a TV of 26, this would be a full 2 seconds difference ,possible I guess but to me it does seem a little excesssive . Half the total variant to final time seems more reasonable.