Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[NorCalGreg]

Hit your first pick of the day = sweet

[NorCalGreg]

Was asked why I wager the minimum amounts on my pick-3's--the reason is simple enough:

I don't bet with wild abandon anymore (at least not after having gone through untold bankrolls ). At this wager level, I'm not sweating the outcome at all. Psychologically, I'm sure I wouldn't make the same bets at a higher level if I worried about "busting".
Playing maybe 3 pick-3's, at the tracks I play is usually around 50 bucks a day...give or take. Even with the inevitable losing streaks (I just came off a 30 bet losing streak) I know I can relax and wait for the next winner. (funny, they seem to come in bunches after a losing streak)

TUP, GPX & TAMPA are all 50cent p-3 minimums. PARX is $1 min, but I do fairly well there, so can risk what amounts to doubling my bet.

Do your due diligence and find your "sweet spot", in other words find where the heck you can win. I use Speed Demon's DEMON POWER-TMPACE-& B3PST depending on the track. There are ratings, rankings, and spot-plays all across the PaceView programs--find what wins for you. If all you are finding is low-priced betting favorites on top-just pass that sequence or look for an exacta, etc.

-NCG

*just remembered a story an old-timer at a keno lounge told me: He seemed to know all the employees, keno-runners and drink ladies, etc at that casino. We got to talking...and he told me something very interesting:

He had been playing there 5 nights a week for almost 15 years. Played the same ticket with 6 numbers for a dollar every game. He won two times a few years ago...in the same week!

He never won before-or since.

[ric4nier]

Thanks Greg...that's good advice. I stick to the tracks with 50 cent pick 3's and keep my bets to the minimum. I use a combination of your different programs everyday.....still a work in progress trying to figure out what wins at what track. I got to say though, the scratches are a pain in the butt everyday,,, scratches can change everything in the race.

Rick

[NorCalGreg]

I agree completely, ric...I even avoid tracks that seem to have a ton of scratches. LAUREL & HAWTHORNE come to mind--don't really win much there, so why even bother.

Last year I recall winning just under 50% at Rillito--using one rating, only. I'll let ya figure out what that one rating is, since it's easily found. Here's the tally so far (first 3 days of 12 day meet)



Will post today's Rillito plays after scratches are up

I did happen to see one horse at AQ that looked interesting:

RACE 5 AMERICAN RULE 10-1

Popular at the claim box- horses with this kind of speed usually are. He shows improving numbers, and today's longer distance could be just the ticket.

[NorCalGreg]

RILLITO 03-06

1ST MS FARRARI DIABLO 5/2
2ND CHOCOLATE WAGON 2-1
3RD WHISPERING FLAME 10-1
4TH COSMIC TRIPSTER 12-1
5TH CONQUEST MOONMAD 6-1
6TH TIGER BY HIS TAIL 3-1
7TH DOG CHOICE 2-1

*once again-pay no attn to the ML-there is little relation to the actual closing odds

[lefty359]

Over Betting The Br leads to gambler's ruin
Found that out he hard way.

[NorCalGreg]

3 short winners out of 7 doesn't do much for the ol' ROI, but still in the black :

[NorCalGreg]

MORISSETTE (#4, 7/2), is entered at Parx Racing in Race 11, a 6 1/2 Furlong Dirt $5,000 CLAIMING, is scheduled to run at 5:37 PM.

[GreenTreeSports]

Hey NCG I found this new place to post picks and links for free all is welcome go check it out all
https://freehorseracingpic.boards.net/

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by GreenTreeSports

Hey NCG I found this new place to post picks and links for free all is welcome go check it out all
https://freehorseracingpic.boards.net/

Yep...looks like a real popular site....Plus...Why should he ???

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Yep...looks like a real popular site....Plus...Why should he ???

Of course, it is 5thstreetpicks who created that forum

The bad thing is that 5thstreet is NOT an Authorized Advertiser here at PA yet he posts about his "winning selections" with links to his website without authorization which is a big no no

His forum is next lol

[geroge.burns99]

I just love when people try to make asses out of us....

PA ask him to donate if he wanted to post picks...

So he says (probably) FU and opens his own site not to pay.

And then uses another name to promote it....

Gotta love it

[NorCalGreg]

I'll be out of town til Sunday...on a Nevada casino run. Meanwhile here's today's PARX BEST-FIVE.

Good luck,

-NCG

[Vinnie]

Good Luck Greg!! Have a blast and kick some ass....

[NorCalGreg]

I had a good time, Vinnie...didn't kick any @$$, though


Here's the tally of posted Rillito wagers-since the meet runs only 6 weekends, we're already half-way through after 6 racing days. Still at 50% winners. Mostly low prices, but if you can hit 50% of anything - you almost can't help but show a profit




Did I mention how I'm getting these plays? Speed Demons gives the best-3-of-last-4 avg Bris speed ratings...I'm simply copying the top rated in each race. The only other track I've used this "selection method" successfully, is at Emerald Downs. Yes it's another short meet, as well. There may be others I just haven't checked.
*In case of ties--your choice.

And 1 from the Stable Watch tomorrow:

Morissette (#7, 8/1) is entered at Parx Racing on Monday, March 14th, 2022 in Race 3 .


Good luck,

-NCG