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Old 11-30-2017, 07:27 PM   #1
Tape Reader
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S&P top?

I値l start. I say we are at a top or at least a short term correction.
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Old 12-01-2017, 10:40 PM   #2
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S & P off 0.2 % today blamed on Flynn's guilty plea. I'd hate to see what will happens if a few big companies miss their earnings forecasts.

I agree with you.A lame excuse like that to explain an off-day might be a bad sign.
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Old 12-04-2017, 10:25 AM   #3
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S & P off 0.2 % today blamed on Flynn's guilty plea. I'd hate to see what will happens if a few big companies miss their earnings forecasts.

I agree with you.A lame excuse like that to explain an off-day might be a bad sign.
a lot have people have lost their shirts calling for a top from 15k.
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Old 12-04-2017, 03:47 PM   #4
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Bond yields are not signaling a recession. I understand the urge to find a reason to hate a market that has gone up for 8 years but I think you値l see better earnings and possibly even some more p/e expansion over the next 4 quarters.

I知 not a trader but you might see a short term drop when tax reform is signed (selling the news). But otherwise I値l wait for an inverted yield curve before I get worried. It could come next year if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. But historically the market has run up for quite a while even after the curve inverts.
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Old 12-04-2017, 04:23 PM   #5
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Bond yields are not signaling a recession. I understand the urge to find a reason to hate a market that has gone up for 8 years but I think you値l see better earnings and possibly even some more p/e expansion over the next 4 quarters.

I知 not a trader but you might see a short term drop when tax reform is signed (selling the news). But otherwise I値l wait for an inverted yield curve before I get worried. It could come next year if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. But historically the market has run up for quite a while even after the curve inverts.
the yield curve has been flattening, the 30 year is only 40 basis points more than the 10 year now. in the past that has signaled a recession is on the horizon. today i don't know what it means, because there is no such thing as conventional wisdom in the markets now.
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Old 12-06-2017, 06:30 PM   #6
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Bond yields are not signaling a recession. I understand the urge to find a reason to hate a market that has gone up for 8 years but I think you値l see better earnings and possibly even some more p/e expansion over the next 4 quarters.

I知 not a trader but you might see a short term drop when tax reform is signed (selling the news). But otherwise I値l wait for an inverted yield curve before I get worried. It could come next year if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. But historically the market has run up for quite a while even after the curve inverts.
On the other hand, E-Trade痴 current 泥on稚 get mad, get even ads do remind me a little bit too much of their 2000 campaign:


Maybe Tape Reader has a point.
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Old 12-06-2017, 07:26 PM   #7
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the yield curve has been flattening, the 30 year is only 40 basis points more than the 10 year now. in the past that has signaled a recession is on the horizon. today i don't know what it means, because there is no such thing as conventional wisdom in the markets now.
Hi Lambo.

The traditional yield curve has the 3 month, 6 month, 2 year, and 30 year as data points. The difference between the 10 year and the 30 is probably as important as the difference between the 3 month and 6 month. What you want to look at is when an actual short term rate exceeds the yield on an actual long term rate. You don稚 want to compare one long term rate with one even longer term rate.

A flattening yield curve doesn稚 always signal a recession. Half the time it signals you are coming out of a recession (when it痴 flattening out from being inverted).

But thanks for sharing. Always enjoy your input.
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Old 02-01-2018, 09:55 PM   #8
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I値l start. I say we are at a top or at least a short term correction.
I will bump this thread. What say you?
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Old 02-02-2018, 01:51 PM   #9
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I will bump this thread. What say you?
I think we concluding this correction, which began on Monday(?), Tuesday(?) of this week.

Today's down market is the blow-off. You could start buying now.

But what do I know?
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Old 02-02-2018, 03:27 PM   #10
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If 1/22 was a real top, there really should have been a lot more volume...it was an average volume day at best...tough to believe that was the top that indicated a massive correction is coming.
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Old 02-02-2018, 04:48 PM   #11
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FWIW, since no one really cares ...

I bought some Apple, Discovery Communications, Viacom, Sinclair Broadcasting, Tegna, and General Electric late this afternoon.

We'll know by Wednesday afternoon if this was a good idea ...
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Old 02-02-2018, 04:58 PM   #12
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the precious metals are going for the program as well today.
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Old 02-03-2018, 06:10 PM   #13
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If 1/22 was a real top, there really should have been a lot more volume...it was an average volume day at best...tough to believe that was the top that indicated a massive correction is coming.
I thought this was an interesting post, so I went back to market peaks from two past cycles (mid to late March 2000 and early October 2007). Volume did not spike at those junctures. I'm using S&P 500 volume in both instances. Perhaps Nasdaq volume spiked in March 2000. I'll need to check that.

If the long bond moves from roughly 2.8% (currently) to 4%, I'm not sure how that's equity friendly. MV=PQ. The Fed and other central banks have ramped "M" significantly over the past 10 years, and that ramp resulted in almost no inflationary pressures. Why? V (i.e., animal spirits [confidence] were absent). What if V now returns and starts to translate into a higher P (price/inflation). Year-over-year wage growth was 2.9% last month, the highest since 2009. Nominal GDP is arguably running at 5% to 6%. Given those two data points, a 4% long bond doesn't seem crazy to me.
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Old 02-03-2018, 08:18 PM   #14
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Big bounce Monday?
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Old 02-03-2018, 11:20 PM   #15
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The market can go down some more and I still won't be blinking an eye...it hasn't even touched the halfway mark of the run-up that started in November of 2016. The S&P has to drop another 160+ points for that to happen...and that would erase only half of what's happened in the last year plus...

So again, this current drop is pretty much nothing...and on zero extra volume to boot...
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