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Old 01-29-2018, 11:12 PM   #76
linrom1
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Originally Posted by AskinHaskin View Post
ROFL - that is an insane interpretation.


For obviously there was no chance that 10,000 could hit it no matter the outcome of the finale.


Another conspiracy theorist bites the dust.
With logic like yours no wonder that track management considers handicappers stupider than Loto players especially those that play scratch off games after all the tickets in play are already paid off.

Here are just a few facts:

1. Those giant rainbow seven figure pools only occur on Sundays following Pegasus card. Last year on Sunday Jan 29, the pool reached about $16million.

2. If Emisael Jaramillo does not JUMP off his mount on 12/28/17, there is no giant pool on Pegasus day weekend.

3. During the last leg of the rainbow six 3 seemingly unrelated events just happened resulting in the most improbable outcome: a 12th choice out of field of 14 wins. One being that Sandro, a horse that would have likely been on the front with Forest Gator was scratched; two of lowest will pays in the Pick 5 took themselves out of contention?

If you want forensic evidence watch TV, if you want to convict swindlers, all you need is circumstantial evidence to reach the right conclusion.

Last edited by linrom1; 01-29-2018 at 11:14 PM.
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Old 01-30-2018, 12:50 AM   #77
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I have not seen will-pays since that screw-up a couple years back when an early bet from Chicago was placed before early scratches known. Will-pays were shown, but late betting made a new favorite that won. The early scratch bet was switched to the favorite, making 2 tickets on the winner and no jackpot.
It's been very frustrating with GP instituting this policy of almost no pick 6 will-pays for several seasons now after the above mentioned incident, but once in awhile they'll show will-pays which confused me even more. Finally had the a-ha moment to realize what's going on here - on days when there are no scratches in the final race they will show the pick 6 will-pays, and on days when there is a scratch (which is most often cause they love these final races with 12 horses & 4 AE's) the bettor is on their own to take a guess.

A track with any decency would maybe put up a graphic before the final race to at least show how many tickets are alive to each horse (rather than just total tickets alive), but we're talking about GP here. Considering with the threat of late afternoon rain on Sunday they actually put the turf races early in the pick 6 sequence shows that someone there does have the capability for horse-player compassion, I just wonder where that person is every other day of the meet.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:41 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by AskinHaskin View Post
ROFL - that is an insane interpretation.


For obviously there was no chance that 10,000 could hit it no matter the outcome of the finale.


Another conspiracy theorist bites the dust.
The favorite was 3 to 1 so 10,000 or right in that neighborhood was possible if it won.
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Old 01-30-2018, 12:47 PM   #79
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The favorite was 3 to 1 so 10,000 or right in that neighborhood was possible if it won.

No wonder your math and data awareness are so constantly under question.

The "favorite was 3-to-1"... and just what percentage of the total wagering is required to send a horse away at $3.10-to-1 ?


Even the clueless guy identified 42,000 (+) tickets 'alive' before the last race (though he's sure they were all destined to win)(were it not for some longshot, I'm guessing...).


Now how about you adopt some accurate data presentation and show the nice people some reality for a pleasant switch?


And for heaven's sake, stop defending people who state that the most improbable outcome occurs when the 3rd longest shot on the board wins, and that "pay(ing) off about 42,000 ticketholders" was ever a conscious choice.
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Old 01-30-2018, 01:23 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
Given the positive expectation pool and amount of public money, I would say the payoff was disappointing. But that leads back to 2 of the 3 heaviest chalks winning(the 2 that won also made the most sense the other that lost I have no idea why hes was odds on). Had one more of them lost you would have seen a lot more value in the payoff.
I agree.

The 10th race winner FIRST DISTINCTION was a jump-off-the-page single.

A good case could be made that the 9th race winner DREAMING OF JO JO was a single as well (I went 2'A's with a flyer on a 10-1 Navarro long shot).

I'm with you on the favorite of the 11th seeming to be overbet. The Romans horse DANCE RHYTHMS looked strong(and was certainly a CONSENSUS 'A'), but I felt the need to couple with the winner . The had just broke maiden by dropping and wiring the field. Throws some 'unknown' into the mix facing winners with a different trip.

I wouldn't be surprised if I was able to look at the pools, if I saw that (r10)First Distinction in particular, and perhaps (r9)Dreaming of Jo Jo as well, took significantly more Rainbow6 money than (r11)Dance Rhythms. It may have simply been a case where 2 favorites won in a row, the public was ready to hammer an obvious horse with a name trainer, and perhaps even some Rainbow 6 players were beginning to look at a possibility of a very light payout should the 3rd consecutive favorite won. Can only speculate.

Interesting to imagine the payout, had the long shot occurred in the 10th race(or both the 9th and 10th) rather than the 12th. Those would be the opinions/days I would want to target if I expected a huge pool to almost offset the takeout.
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Old 01-30-2018, 01:39 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by AskinHaskin View Post

The "favorite was 3-to-1"... and just what percentage of the total wagering is required to send a horse away at $3.10-to-1 ?


I'll answer that for him, but I won't show my work. Allowing for the takeout, approximately 20%, +- 2% or so.
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Old 02-02-2018, 02:03 PM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1 View Post
2. If Emisael Jaramillo does not JUMP off his mount on 12/28/17, there is no giant pool on Pegasus day weekend.
You're a complete idiot. Sorry, I don't call people names very often in the horse racing section (or even off topic), but you are a complete ****ing idiot with this comment.
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Old 02-03-2018, 11:38 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Ocala Mike View Post
I'll answer that for him, but I won't show my work. Allowing for the takeout, approximately 20%, +- 2% or so.
100-TO%/odds +1

in example using a 20% TO:

100-20/3.10 + 1 = 80/4.1 = 19.5122% bet

Last edited by AndyC; 02-03-2018 at 11:39 AM.
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Old 02-03-2018, 11:53 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by AskinHaskin View Post
No wonder your math and data awareness are so constantly under question.
LOL, OK. Always cool to take shots at somebody sitting behind a keyboard anonymously. Please feel free to introduce yourself if you get the chance. I'd love to meet you. Somehow I'm sure that won't ever happen though.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AskinHaskin View Post
The "favorite was 3-to-1"... and just what percentage of the total wagering is required to send a horse away at $3.10-to-1 ?


Even the clueless guy identified 42,000 (+) tickets 'alive' before the last race (though he's sure they were all destined to win)(were it not for some longshot, I'm guessing...).


Now how about you adopt some accurate data presentation and show the nice people some reality for a pleasant switch?


And for heaven's sake, stop defending people who state that the most improbable outcome occurs when the 3rd longest shot on the board wins, and that "pay(ing) off about 42,000 ticketholders" was ever a conscious choice.


I said 10,000 was possible, not 42,000. Apparently in addition to being a dickhead your reading comprehension sucks as well. I know very well what percentage a 3 to 1 favorite is. So yes, given that percentage in a different pool, 10,000 winning tickets was quite possible.
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Old 02-03-2018, 12:41 PM   #85
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You're a complete idiot. Sorry, I don't call people names very often in the horse racing section (or even off topic), but you are a complete ****ing idiot with this comment.
Thank you Einstein for contradicting yourself in the same sentence. In my opinion he jumped off the horse but you can have your opinion.
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Old 02-03-2018, 02:09 PM   #86
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Bad language

Pace Advantage & CJ,

So, it's evidently OK for you two to call people names. Very derogatory names.

I get an infraction and a warning for much less.

What's up with that?
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Old 02-03-2018, 02:53 PM   #87
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Pace Advantage & CJ,

So, it's evidently OK for you two to call people names. Very derogatory names.

I get an infraction and a warning for much less.

What's up with that?
PA obviously can do what he wants. He owns the site. I would guess I get some leeway from PA but if he thinks I overstepped he will let me know I'm sure. At some point people need to be called out for being trolls. That is what happened here with two different posters. We know the history of the posters in questions.

What he try to avoid is having other users make the same sort of determinations.

As for the language, I stick to the NYPD Blue rule which has been in place for a long time on this board. If it was allowed on that show, it is allowed here.
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Old 02-03-2018, 05:02 PM   #88
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PA obviously can do what he wants. He owns the site. I would guess I get some leeway from PA but if he thinks I overstepped he will let me know I'm sure. At some point people need to be called out for being trolls. That is what happened here with two different posters. We know the history of the posters in questions.

What he try to avoid is having other users make the same sort of determinations.

As for the language, I stick to the NYPD Blue rule which has been in place for a long time on this board. If it was allowed on that show, it is allowed here.
I hope posters aren't allowed to post pictures of their though. Lol
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Old 02-03-2018, 07:15 PM   #89
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I hope posters aren't allowed to post pictures of their LOSING TICKETS though. Lol
FTFY
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Old 02-03-2018, 07:20 PM   #90
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Can I get 1-1 on CJ having AskinHaskin horizontal within 60 seconds?!
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