Taking the Guesswork out of Racings most important issue!

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by bob60566

The average daily Southern California attendance on-track attendance declined 5.1% from 9,680 in 2010 to 9,187. The 2010 meet did include a Zenyatta appreciation day (Dec. 5) that attracted 17,868 fans

Mac

So their solution will be to have a Zenyatta appreciation day every Sunday next year....

[Cardus]

Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail

So their solution will be to have a Zenyatta appreciation day every Sunday next year....

Won't work.

Her core constituency -- little children and Jay Hovdey -- have short attention spans.

The former group has probably forgotten about her.

[Tom]

But she will remain HOY forever, so future generations will remember.

[Robert Goren]

We have pretty good idea what raising the takeout rate by a certain % will do the handle. I don't think it is out of line to think that cutting the rate by same amount will produce the same kind of result in the opposite direction.

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by Caroline

Yes, obviously a bunch of factors affect handle and revenue other than takeout rate. The relationship between takeout rate and revenue is a conditional one, i.e. conditional on all other factors, and I showed the Laffer Curve to illustrate that conditional relationship because, as you point out, it does exist (and in a variety of proportional tax rate contexts) even if it isn't something you can eyeball. The discussion was mainly about the methods one can use in practice to isolate that relationship from all other factors affecting handle and hence revenue. My suggestion was that field experimental methods, as applied market research, be used to identify revenue maximizing takeout rates in preference to structural econometric modeling or simulations of structural models and so on. Field experiments are the most efficient and immediate way to find optimal takeout rates in the sample that you care about - here, today, under current market conditions - rather than trying to infer optimal takeout rates from estimates and simulations based on data samples from other dates, tracks, conditions and so on. These are the methods that other businesses are using to find optimal pricing points. Really, this should not be a matter of a one time study, but should be a part of ongoing market research in my opinion.

Back in January 2011, I recommended at a meeting with local track and horsemen's reps that they contact academics in the experimental labs at Cal Tech and U of A to discuss the possibility of setting up an appropriately designed experimental study. U of A would be perfect, I agree, via association with RTIP, although unfortunately they have lost recently some of their experimental group to other schools. Their Nobel Prize winner Vernon Smith, for example, is now at Chapman in Orange County.

I enjoyed meeting Vernon. Seemed like a pretty good guy. NYU establishe an experimental lab as well several years ago. They might be worth contacting. I can give you an introduction if you would like to PM me

[andymays]

Originally Posted by andymays

The Pick 5 (14% takeout) pool with the carryover reached almost 1.5 Million today with the 183k carryover money.

The TOC and CHRB said it would never work.

That's how much they know.

Must watch video on the P5.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIodu2J8eQs

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by andymays

Must watch video on the P5.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIodu2J8eQs

They can't even make a decent commercial...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by andymays

Must watch video on the P5.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIodu2J8eQs

eeeeek... replace the bumbling bald head guy with the ShamWow dude and get Goren to replace Jimmy the Hat and maybe they'd get somewhere.

[jelly]

That guy was annoying.

[DJofSD]

Originally Posted by rwwupl

Another eye opening segment by Andy on the Roger Stein Radio Show.

For those who would like to hear it, go to archives for Sunday,12-18-11

http://www.rogerstein.com/


rw

I find it mildly humorous the wise-guys did not come up with a backwheel using all as the way the bet was taken down.

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by andymays

Must watch video on the P5.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIodu2J8eQs

Makes me long for the old Xpressbet ad:

Trifecta baby!

Which takes some doing.

[takeout]

Originally Posted by jelly

Andy,Nice job on the Roger stein show today

Ditto.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

But she will remain HOY forever, so future generations will remember.

I'm not looking forward to the discussions that occur here when her offspring start running.

I think Caroline hit the bulls eye with this quote:

"Really, this should not be a matter of a one time study, but should be a part of ongoing market research in my opinion".

[Caroline]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

I enjoyed meeting Vernon. Seemed like a pretty good guy. NYU establishe an experimental lab as well several years ago. They might be worth contacting. I can give you an introduction if you would like to PM me

I'll be in touch for sure. USC also now has an experimental lab and team, as does UCLA. The question is - who is interested in parimutuel issues? Historically, Cal Tech has been, especially in the context of efficiency - and I discussed some of that... but as I tried to make clear at the symposium, asking academics that are capable of designing appropriately designed controlled experiments to become interested in revenue maximization for the industry is a long shot - without seed funding and field access. Nonetheless, it's a better bet than asking a commission based company that will ask millions to come up with a recommendation for racing that a first grader could...imo.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by andymays

It’s a sad commentary on California Racing when the leadership of the TOC can’t understand that they need to let the tracks compete for customers.

When I compare my California betting for 2006 vs 2011, I notice a dramatic drop. But It has nothing to do with the take out. It's a matter of the disappearance of the mid-level purse. I think the race condition mix is unhealthy in California.

There are plenty of high end purses in S. California. And plenty of $4,000 B claiming races in N. California, but there is a drop in the number of mid level purses -- a28,000 and msw28,000 races as a whole. It takes the fluidity out of class style handicapping. I need to look outside California for ideal drops in class. Golden gate suffers more, because the quality of horses being shipped North has dropped, making their product dismal. For the day after Christmas, which has always been a family tradition, I say "Why would I want to bet $4,000 claimers. I'll look elsewhere. In the fall of 2006 I bet $9,200 in N. California. Compare this to $800 so far this fall.

The interest thing with my own play is that my drop in betting in California has been made up by an equal amount bet outside of California. I think this is because the East Coast has an abundance of purses that are more suitable for trainers to find good spots for horses, and there is a dynamic fluidity for class handicappers.