Exacta play will save your rears.

[teddy]

dirt Sprint 05624 00172 03% 09% 19% 0.59 0.63 0.63 29.8 $38.9 $147 0.25
Dirt Route 01818 00052 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.58 0.56 29.1 $39.4 $130 0.23

surface, dist ,number of races teste,d actual occurences, percet of time it occured, percent winners, percent placers, percnet showers, roi for win roi for place roi for show, avg payoff. high payoff

[VigorsTheGrey]

Thank you...that helps...
So one other question...in your data, shots 10-1 and over really suck in the place hole...just so i’m clear about this...how much better do those same 10-1 and longer do in the win spot...?

[coachv30]

Interesting topic...this weekend i plan on testing a new exacta strategy. I would like to share it with you and would gladly welcome feedback.

First off...with this strategy, I'm looking for a $24 return or better for $1. The Max total wager is $8.00. I will begin by handicapping the race as usual, narrowing it down to my top 5 contenders. Based on qualitative / quantitative factors, i will identify those top 5 using (A-E). "A" being my top selection, "E" being my fifth selection.

Only selections A and /or B can / will be on top in the exacta, depending on the projected will pays.

At 5 minutes to post, i will look at projections to see which combos meet my $24 goal. I wiil look at the following combos:

A-B, A-C, A-D, A-E as well as B-A, B-C, B-D, B-E..

If by chance, all eight combos are paying $24 or more, then my ticket wii be...

$1 EX- A, B / A,B,C,D,E

Lets say only B-C and B-D meet the criteria....i will then play..

$4 EX- B / C,D- $8

Im interested to see how it goes.

[teddy]

They only suck unless they are top class or top in other catagorieslike early speed or best closer.

[teddy]

Originally Posted by coachv30

Interesting topic...this weekend i plan on testing a new exacta strategy. I would like to share it with you and would gladly welcome feedback.

First off...with this strategy, I'm looking for a $24 return or better for $1. The Max total wager is $8.00. I will begin by handicapping the race as usual, narrowing it down to my top 5 contenders. Based on qualitative / quantitative factors, i will identify those top 5 using (A-E). "A" being my top selection, "E" being my fifth selection.

Only selections A and /or B can / will be on top in the exacta, depending on the projected will pays.

At 5 minutes to post, i will look at projections to see which combos meet my $24 goal. I wiil look at the following combos:

A-B, A-C, A-D, A-E as well as B-A, B-C, B-D, B-E..

If by chance, all eight combos are paying $24 or more, then my ticket wii be...

$1 EX- A, B / A,B,C,D,E

Lets say only B-C and B-D meet the criteria....i will then play..

$4 EX- B / C,D- $8

Im interested to see how it goes.

sounds good. Smashing them on highest paying ones. I still would weight the water based on how well I liked what was left. More on bc than bd

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by teddy

sounds good. Smashing them on highest paying ones. I still would weight the water based on how well I liked what was left. More on bc than bd

More on the combo paying less?

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by teddy

sounds good. Smashing them on highest paying ones. I still would weight the water based on how well I liked what was left. More on bc than bd

I get it....more on my higher ranked.

[teddy]

[QUOTE=coachv30;2422227]I get it....more on my higher ranked.[/QUI\


I usually have one I like more for some reason. I will bet a
$100 ab
$50 ac
$20 ad

[teddy]

I have found the local handicapper like NIck at GP is a great place to start when doing your handicapping. His top 2 should be part of your wagers as he knows the local trainers and horses so well. Probably adds a few percentage points to the roi. Also start with Mark at mtn. Build your ticket from there. IF they pitch a horse you like then pitch it. Or if a fav is cold on the board , pitch it. If you rate a horse even money and its 2 to one. Then there is something up. Probably broke down.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by teddy

They only suck unless they are top class or top in other catagorieslike early speed or best closer.

Does the data suggest that 10-1 or higher that also “are top class or top in other categories like early speed or best closer” out-perform as winners rather than as placers...?

[teddy]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Does the data suggest that 10-1 or higher that also “are top class or top in other categories like early speed or best closer” out-perform as winners rather than as placers...?

Not really but payoffs are huge with a 10 to one on top. Even if the chalk is second.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by teddy

Reverse racing styles is touted by brisnet. They are pretty smart so i think its worth following.

I just did a quick search and found the article linked below on Brisnet. It sounds like what you are talking about. They call it "Opposing Pace".



http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/allwaysexacta

[teddy]

Originally Posted by Clocker

I just did a quick search and found the article linked below on Brisnet. It sounds like what you are talking about. They call it "Opposing Pace".



http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/allwaysexacta

Yes I have also read this article but never actually tried to put it into my way during . I tried to see how well it worked on my computer program but was not able to see any corelation I think I will try it in real life today and only bet opposing pace.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Maybe this will help


http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?s=risk+intelligence

[Appy]

" I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet... "

Teddy, I would consider that one of the most costly pieces of bad advice I ever heard. Right on par with automatically tossing anything 8-1 or higher from W contention.
Never fails to amaze me how often the place horse is one of the highest odds horses in the field.