Saturday Card at Belmont

[PhantomOnTour]

Wow - what a lineup!

An embarrassment of riches. It's almost overwhelming.
So much quality - so many stacked fields.

The Jaipur (just to name one) is incredible.

[classhandicapper]

NYRA has far exceeded my hopes with this weekend.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wow - what a lineup!

An embarrassment of riches. It's almost overwhelming.
So much quality - so many stacked fields.

The Jaipur (just to name one) is incredible.

Speaking of the Jaipur, I'm going to give Big Invasion another shot. He was kind of sawed off/bothered throughout the turn down on the inside last time at CD, and had to check in the lane (his chances of winning were over at that point though). He did gallop out well, and I think he may fare better being drawn further out on Saturday. Rosario should keep him in the clear to make his run, and he can be right there at the end.
I guess he will be the 3rd choice in the wagering and should offer some value.

A total bomb who I think might be able to hit the lower rung of the tri/super?
How about Thin White Duke ? Third off the shelf, strong work since his last (where he chased a slow pace), had bit of traffic trouble just as they turned in, and ran on okay when he got clear. He needs pace and should get it on Saturday. Then again, he's never hit the board in 5 tries at Bel, he isn't exactly on the level of the best in this field & it may be best to wait until Sar to play this guy.
Anyway, you'll get 30-1 or better on him.

[burnsy]

Those fires have been burning for weeks . The smoke came down to upstate Ny several weeks ago . Then the wind changed and we had two weeks of blue skies. It’s a day to day deal . As soon as the wind blows its normal direction , from west to east , the smoke won’t even come this way . It can happen up here in less than a day (hours). From what they are predicting, which is not always 100 % accurate . The wind direction is beginning to change . Saturday looks to be a nice day.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Speaking of the Jaipur, I'm going to give Big Invasion another shot. He was kind of sawed off/bothered throughout the turn down on the inside last time at CD, and had to check in the lane (his chances of winning were over at that point though). He did gallop out well, and I think he may fare better being drawn further out on Saturday. Rosario should keep him in the clear to make his run, and he can be right there at the end.
I guess he will be the 3rd choice in the wagering and should offer some value.

A total bomb who I think might be able to hit the lower rung of the tri/super?
How about Thin White Duke ? Third off the shelf, strong work since his last (where he chased a slow pace), had bit of traffic trouble just as they turned in, and ran on okay when he got clear. He needs pace and should get it on Saturday. Then again, he's never hit the board in 5 tries at Bel, he isn't exactly on the level of the best in this field & it may be best to wait until Sar to play this guy.
Anyway, you'll get 30-1 or better on him.

Thin white Duke has JJ on board this time. So you got that going for you.

Here's some of my value plays:

R7: #1 Pass the Champagne 8-1
Won the "prep" for this race five weeks ago at the same track, from the same post, the G2 Ruffian.

R8: #12 Gilmore 12-1
With five speed horses contesting the lead, one of these late runners has to get through. Having Irad can't hurt.

R9: #5 Dr Zempf 8-1
OK, only Chad Brown horse in the field but if you draw a line through his last race (too long), this looks like his perfect distance.

R10: (I have a couple here.)

#8 Doppelganger 20-1: Won his last three races with ease. ML is so high due to the low Beyers. Trainer likes the extra rest (eight weeks), she's 34% with that.

#4 Hoist the Gold 30-1: Was second to Cody's Wish (CW) last out. CW is 7/5 here. Saez jumped off Pletcher's #5 for this.

R11: #9 Ocean Atlantique 20-1
Race is very short on speed. Will look to wire the field.

R12: #7 Hit Show 10-1
Love this plodder here. Virtually equal pace figures tells me he can run all day if needed, yet won't burn himself out too early.

Thanks for listening!

[Michael]

Nobody's mentioned this... has anyone noticed that High Definition (who's running in the gold cup) is missing 4 line items?... pretty sure the horse ran 4 hurdle races?

for the record, I'm short on sleep (life makes demands - I just go with it ) AND I'm on the back foot handicapping... so I'm finally looking at the Gold Cup for later today.

Brisnet's "Premium PPS" show it missing... may or may not be important.. but still the data looks incomplete to me.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1335180

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/h...efinition/form

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Michael

Nobody's mentioned this... has anyone noticed that High Definition (who's running in the gold cup) is missing 4 line items?... pretty sure the horse ran 4 hurdle races?

for the record, I'm short on sleep (life makes demands - I just go with it ) AND I'm on the back foot handicapping... so I'm finally looking at the Gold Cup for later today.

Brisnet's "Premium PPS" show it missing... may or may not be important.. but still the data looks incomplete to me.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1335180

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/h...efinition/form

You're right, those look like jump races, but should be included in the pp's.
He's actually run four times this year. Three of them appear to be Group 1 races.

Good catch

[PhantomOnTour]

I think we may see the coming out party for the #4 Marketsegmentation here in the Gr1-New York.

Hoping she wires this field. Her last race was fantastic.
9-1 is a great price

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I think we may see the coming out party for the #4 Marketsegmentation here in the Gr1-New York.

Hoping she wires this field. Her last race was fantastic.
9-1 is a great price

Nicely done.

Had dutch and EX. Yes, looked like would get the lead, but :50 and change and then 1:16 and change?

Race was over.

Thought and would surely keep the honest. Not. Even. Close.

[PhantomOnTour]

Thanks Palace

Acorn
Competitive field. I'll try to get the #8 Accede home from just off an expected fast pace.

Ex: 5-6 w 8
Win: 8

[ScottJ]

For a $600,000 pot in the Grade 1 New York, very sad to see that the opening six furlongs goes in 1:15+, but even worse is that not a single jockey in that race saw fit to make a move against Market Segmentation. Could no one feel the race's pace? Extremely disappointed in the efforts put in by McKulick and War Like Goddess who were both pulled back to last-and-next-to-last from the flag fall.

[affirmedny]

Originally Posted by Michael

Nobody's mentioned this... has anyone noticed that High Definition (who's running in the gold cup) is missing 4 line items?... pretty sure the horse ran 4 hurdle races?

for the record, I'm short on sleep (life makes demands - I just go with it ) AND I'm on the back foot handicapping... so I'm finally looking at the Gold Cup for later today.

Brisnet's "Premium PPS" show it missing... may or may not be important.. but still the data looks incomplete to me.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1335180

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/h...efinition/form

Brisnet is not having a good year

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 11

Taking a shot with #1 Poppy Flower, currently 6-1.
She may not get the pace she wants but kicked in well last time and was rolling late. Third off the shelf, groundsaving trip, maybe she gets there.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Race 11

Taking a shot with #1 Poppy Flower, currently 6-1.
She may not get the pace she wants but kicked in well last time and was rolling late. Third off the shelf, groundsaving trip, maybe she gets there.

That is some solid 'capping today Phantom.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

That is some solid 'capping today Phantom.

Thanks - I had a good day