Preakness Stakes

[zico20]

I did my handicapping for the Preakness and I don't think there is going to be much interest in the race from this forum. Remember there is a super hi five for those looking to increase the payout in this chalky looking finish. I will rank them the way I see them finishing.

Mage is by far the best horse and will win easily. If he breaks well and the pace is slow he will be up close to the lead. He keeps improving and the competition is just plain bad. Anyone thinking they are getting 8-5 is in for a rude awakening. He is going off 1-1 or 4-5. Now, if you bet him in the Preakness futures at 22-1 you are looking great!

National Treasure is Mage biggest threat. He draws the rail, puts blinkers on, is back with Baffert and is going to try to wire the field like Medina Spirit did. This is a paceless race and it sets up perfect for a steal job. I am not high on the California horses this year and he clearly isn't the top horse out there but I got a feeling he is going to run a big race. He for some reason can't close so new tactics are coming.

First Mission is not as fast as some are making him out to be. His last two races were slow early and he was stalking. Has the right to improve again being the fourth start but he barely beat Arabian Lion who doesn't impress me.

Blazing Mission is maybe the best of the rest but none of them have any talent. His Champagne was in the slop and he lost ground in the Bluegrass after a 112.2 six furlongs. That doesn't inspire much confidence. He is totally devoid of any early foot which makes it hard to see him finish in the exacta.

Red Route One I swear a good harness horse could beat him for the first quarter mile. At least you can say he always runs in stake races and his Bris speed figures have improved five straight races.

Perform has gotten better finally going two turns the last two but this is much deeper waters here. The final time was so slow it is hard to believe he can improve against the top three and hit the trifecta. Maybe get fourth with some luck.

Coffeewithchris isn't getting the lead like some are saying if National Treasure goes for it. He is cheap speed that is going to get run over on the turn by many in here. Easy toss for the superfecta and even the super hi five.

Chase the Chaos only dirt race was horrific. He might run seventh if the totally collapses in the stretch.

I think a trifecta pays around $25 and the super with or might get you in the $100-120 range. The super high five going with the obvious numbers will probably pay $200-300 tops.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by zico20

Chase the Chaos only dirt race was horrific. He might run seventh if the totally collapses in the stretch.

Only "dry" dirt race. His very first was an off-the-turfer on a muddy track at Canterbury at 6.5 furlongs. He closed to finish 2nd. Trained by Diodoro then.

I'll definitely root for him - I ALWAYS root for geldings in any of these big races. But the only reason he's here is because Stronach has the El Camino Real as a Preakness "Win and You're In".

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by zico20

... Now, if you bet him in the Preakness futures at 22-1 you are looking great! ...

A wise person once told me, "it's only an overlay if it wins...."

The dog looks very tough, has room for upside, and numbers that dwarf the other runners. I can't believe I foolishly posted Mage might be 5-1 in the Preakness if he won the Derby (in the Preakness futures thread), nor can I believe I bet a couple of other horses and not him in that pool. I agree with you that Mage will be 4-5 or so.

The negative I see is that Mage has made his move on the turn in the last two races, and trying that with the tighter turns at Old Hilltop might, just maybe, will leave him a bit short in the stretch. Though, admittedly, Mage looks like he could regress, run a 99 Beyer, and still possibly win by 5.

So, I'm looking for the dog to "Summer Squall" Mage, the way Unbridled got beat, and hope for the best. Maybe use cheap a cold super or SH5 for a saver, though the 1,5,6,7 look an awful lot a like after the top two.

Good luck!

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

A wise person once told me, "it's only an overlay if it wins...."

The dog looks very tough, has room for upside, and numbers that dwarf the other runners. I can't believe I foolishly posted Mage might be 5-1 in the Preakness if he won the Derby (in the Preakness futures thread), nor can I believe I bet a couple of other horses and not him in that pool. I agree with you that Mage will be 4-5 or so.

The negative I see is that Mage has made his move on the turn in the last two races, and trying that with the tighter turns at Old Hilltop might, just maybe, will leave him a bit short in the stretch. Though, admittedly, Mage looks like he could regress, run a 99 Beyer, and still possibly win by 5.

So, I'm looking for the dog to "Summer Squall" Mage, the way Unbridled got beat, and hope for the best. Maybe use cheap a cold super or SH5 for a saver, though the 1,5,6,7 look an awful lot a like after the top two.

Good luck!

You haven't listened to me for over 30 years why start now! I told everyone to bet Mage in the future bet and you didn't do it. The tighter turns at Pimlico has been proven false. NBC a few years ago put a picture of Pimlico and Churchill imposed and they were identical. The good news is we are going to have a horse go for the Triple Crown this year.

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by zico20

I did my handicapping for the Preakness and I don't think there is going to be much interest in the race from this forum. Remember there is a super hi five for those looking to increase the payout in this chalky looking finish. I will rank them the way I see them finishing.

Mage is by far the best horse and will win easily. If he breaks well and the pace is slow he will be up close to the lead. He keeps improving and the competition is just plain bad. Anyone thinking they are getting 8-5 is in for a rude awakening. He is going off 1-1 or 4-5. Now, if you bet him in the Preakness futures at 22-1 you are looking great!

National Treasure is Mage biggest threat. He draws the rail, puts blinkers on, is back with Baffert and is going to try to wire the field like Medina Spirit did. This is a paceless race and it sets up perfect for a steal job. I am not high on the California horses this year and he clearly isn't the top horse out there but I got a feeling he is going to run a big race. He for some reason can't close so new tactics are coming.

First Mission is not as fast as some are making him out to be. His last two races were slow early and he was stalking. Has the right to improve again being the fourth start but he barely beat Arabian Lion who doesn't impress me.

Blazing Mission is maybe the best of the rest but none of them have any talent. His Champagne was in the slop and he lost ground in the Bluegrass after a 112.2 six furlongs. That doesn't inspire much confidence. He is totally devoid of any early foot which makes it hard to see him finish in the exacta.

Red Route One I swear a good harness horse could beat him for the first quarter mile. At least you can say he always runs in stake races and his Bris speed figures have improved five straight races.

Perform has gotten better finally going two turns the last two but this is much deeper waters here. The final time was so slow it is hard to believe he can improve against the top three and hit the trifecta. Maybe get fourth with some luck.

Coffeewithchris isn't getting the lead like some are saying if National Treasure goes for it. He is cheap speed that is going to get run over on the turn by many in here. Easy toss for the superfecta and even the super hi five.

Chase the Chaos only dirt race was horrific. He might run seventh if the totally collapses in the stretch.

I think a trifecta pays around $25 and the super with or might get you in the $100-120 range. The super high five going with the obvious numbers will probably pay $200-300 tops.

#1 National Treasure definitely horse to beat and my Preakness pick. He will probably be 9/5, As usual, better value on the undercard on big days of racing.

[sovereign]

Mage - just because a win will bring more interest to The Belmont. If he is crowned he will have earned it because I expect a full field of spoilers coming in for the 3rd jewel if he wins today.

Blazing Sevens - if there is an upset it might be him; just handicapping as if it were any other race: 3rd off the layoff and bullets in the AM; he finally gets his saddlecloth number, so that might be a sign.

National Treasure - anything from California shipping east is suspect no matter how good the numbers look

[Aerocraft67]

Big of you, Zico, to put together a proper analysis of this race. You flatter the humble event.

Now with the scratch, it's just with a gap to and a big gap to the rest, with a rock bottom hard toss.

All the contenders but & seem to have plateaued a big step below those two without much indication of substantial upside. I guess could step forward, but it has farthest to go.

Could the pace be little hotter than expected? Some are speculating that they send the . Not sure why they'd do that, given a solid late pace rating to track and pounce instead.

Alternatively, maybe can set more reasonable fractions than last time and hang on for a surprisingly big piece. Hard to imaging him stealing this from either of the top two, but it's a thought to get a price underneath.

I feel obligated to bet the Preakness. Maybe dutch the / exacta if it'll pay better than even money. Or put that on top of a super part wheel with all.

Since this is Zico's thread, maybe a high 5 play is in order. Wish I had more time for the undercard.

[rastajenk]

I was plugging in some High 5 numbers...they add up quick!

[zico20]

Well that sucked! I bet 600 into the race and my big bet was a 200 superfecta 3-1-7-5. I was looking at around 8000 if Mage won. I knew the race was lost when they went almost 49 to the half and 113.2. You simply can't be three lengths behind in that time. Castellano should have moved Mage for the lead as soon as they hit the backstretch. I knew National Treasure was going to be on the lead I just never thought it would be that slow. Oh well, I bet Mage to win in the Derby so still up after the two races.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Someone has to explain to me how these were the final odds:

National Treasure: 2.9/1 This makes sense. Then again, thought he'd be 2/1. 1.5 times the odds on this one was a steal.
Chase the Chaos: 10.5/1 - Who in their right mind is betting this horse to win at odds under 25 or 30/1? 11/1 is a joke
Mage: 8/5 - Seriously should have been 1/2
Coffeewithchris - 10.5/1 - Should have been 50/1. Again, who was betting this horse at nearly 10/1?
Perform - 8.5/1 - Thought he would have been 12/1. Not horrific odds, his off odds actually made a bit of sense
Red Route One: 8/1 - Why? Deep deep closer in a paceless race? Had some class, but not 8/1. Should have been at least 15/1
Blazing Sevens: 4.9/1 - Made some sense. Brown has won this race before with this type of pre-schedule, but you should have got 6/1

[sovereign]

I was absolutely wrong about National Treasure. Or did they just get lucky with the pace shape?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by sovereign

I was absolutely wrong about National Treasure. Or did they just get lucky with the pace shape?

When First Mission dropped out, National Treasure was the true pace of the race. Coffeewithchris has showed speed in all his races, but he was cheap speed. Natty didn't have to worry much about him.

Only question was 9.5 panels. When it was 1:13 after 6F it was game over.

[HottalkersinKY]

it was the pace basicly there were 3 horses and jockeys that should have probably not have been in the race Mage needed a quicker pace and so did red route one that left the first and second finishers probably the worst field ever for a prekness

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by sovereign

I was absolutely wrong about National Treasure. Or did they just get lucky with the pace shape?

The jockey on National Treasure stole the race, a masterful ride he lulled them to sleep. Glad I did not bet. I thought Mage would be 3-5, looking at National Treasure's past he was a gamble as he had a couple 3rds around the same odds as yesterday. A few races back it appeared Mage had enough early speed to press the pace, I would say Mage got a poor ride. I looked at the PP's and just watched, I did not bet. At 7-5 Mage was tempting.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by HottalkersinKY

it was the pace basicly there were 3 horses and jockeys that should have probably not have been in the race Mage needed a quicker pace and so did red route one that left the first and second finishers probably the worst field ever for a prekness

Sorry for the people that lost money but if Mage won a triple crown, it would be by default not because he was a great horse.