Will Mage win The Preakness ?

[zico20]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Fair Odds for the projected Preakness field *-New entry not above
Please note: I'm horrible at making lines so take these with a grain of salt

Mage 9/5
Disarm 4-1
National Treasure 9/2
Red Route One 10-1
Henry Q* 11-1
Blazing Sevens 12-1
Confidence Game 15-1
First Mission 15-1
Arabian Lion* 15-1
Il Miracolo* 20-1
Chase The Chaos 25-1
Perform 30-1

Fair odds on Disarm should be closer to 10-1, he isn't that good.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by zico20

Fair odds on Disarm should be closer to 10-1, he isn't that good.

Horse is well on its way to being another Tenfold or Midnight Bourbon for the barn (i.e., a career also-ran); could have developed into something for this summer instead of being tire-ironed into the Derby.

I guess there's still hope since this race will be marginally better than the Sir Barton. I think one horse in there re-routed from yesterday's Long Branch because the Long Branch came up "too tough"...

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Yeah - my opinion in Post #1 is under serious reconsideration.
Looks like Disarm and Confidence Game will be the only other Derby runners in the field.
Desormeaux sat CG down after the Rebel, saying he needs time between races, and then wheels him back in 2wks? I wonder if he's going to run.
As it looks now, Mage may waltz into New York with a chance at the Triple Crown.

Looks like we'll have a grand total of two Derby runners in the Preakness, possibly an all time low, as CG is a no go.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by zico20

Fair odds on Disarm should be closer to 10-1, he isn't that good.

That’s why I say “Take it with a grain of salt.” In other words don’t take them too seriously as I am 100% bad at making fair odds/morning line odds.

Personally I think he would be top 3 for sure since he had prior experience in the Derby but also his form looks good heading into today. The other invaders we will have to see how well they get supported in the draw tomorrow. Just my 2 cents.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Looks like we'll have a grand total of two Derby runners in the Preakness, possibly an all time low, as CG is a no go.

Shaping up to be the worst Preakness field of my lifetime. And I bought Prince's 1st album.

And like the Derby, this field is completely devoid of any speed.

May have to simply take First Mission because it looks like he will simply inherit the lead. And as we've seen before, front-runners can certainly wire the field in the Preakness.

[Geno_Gino]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Looks like we'll have a grand total of two Derby runners in the Preakness, possibly an all time low, as CG is a no go.

Twitter

And then there was one.

[Big Stanley]

What a disgrace. It might as well be greyhound racing on Saturday. I'd seriously rather bet an average turf route at Canterbury.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Big Stanley

What a disgrace. It might as well be greyhound racing on Saturday. I'd seriously rather bet an average turf route at Canterbury.

Plus, a Paul Allen race call can be quite entertaining.

Paul Allen

[pandy]

I don't know who I'm going to pick in the Preakness yet but the Preakness is a lot easier to win than the Derby, since most of the top colts skip the race. This year is really bad as Mage will face none of the Derby horses.

[Robert Fischer]

how will National Treasure adjust to his barn change?

[Geno_Gino]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

how will National Treasure adjust to his barn change?

As a bettor, I will have to assume the horse will be so excited that he is running in the Preakness that he will look and act like a monster -- almost to the point of breaking the assistant starter's arm.

Can't wait to see Johnny V. implement the famous "Baffert horse leads from the start in a fast time and re-breaks in mid-stretch on the way to victory" game plan.

My money will be on National Treasure to win (hope I get 3-1) with Red Route One and First Mission rounding out the exacta and trifecta.

[Robert Fischer]

I'd like to see National Treasure's May 12 workout.

Mage flashes brilliance, and should win if he runs back to form, but this could be tough race if he doesn't.
and maybe are all pretty good.

As a local fan, I'd like to see CoffeewithChris hit the board. Seems unlikely, but Rodriguez is a hell of a jockey.

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by Geno_Gino

As a bettor, I will have to assume the horse will be so excited that he is running in the Preakness that he will look and act like a monster -- almost to the point of breaking the assistant starter's arm.

Can't wait to see Johnny V. implement the famous "Baffert horse leads from the start in a fast time and re-breaks in mid-stretch on the way to victory" game plan.

My money will be on National Treasure to win (hope I get 3-1) with Red Route One and First Mission rounding out the exacta and trifecta.

I agree. I will bet him too unless the price is lower than 3/1. Baffert has won this race enough times

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by zico20

God do I hope everyone thinks like you. Mage is not a true closer, he can easily be on the lead if the fractions are slow. He is going to keep getting better and better. His turn of foot reminds me of Sunday Silence! That move in the Florida Derby into fast fractions was something you rarely see. I can't believe more didn't pick up on it. Mage is much faster early than Two Phils, he just needs a decent break in the Preakness and it is on to the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line.

Looks like a lot of folks did think like me
Mage should have been way less than 7-5 vs that field...wonder why he wasn't.
Maybe a lot of people know that deep closing Derby winners tend to struggle at Pimlico, and now you do too.
He did pay $2.40 to show though

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Dawdling pace.

Gotta hand it to Johnny V. He was able to get away with it. 23.4, 48.4, 1:13.49. After 4 furlongs it became a merry-go-round, and after 6F it was over.

It is one thing to get to the front and run them off their feet. A whole other to just jog around the track and win. Race looked to be devoid of any speed, but that was slower than I even thought possible.

Track was playing fairly fast too. Arabian Lion went 1:41 for 8.5 in the Sir Barton for 3YOs earlier. They crawled early, but finished fast in 1:11 for 6, 1:35 for the mile.