Two Phil's

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

The Preakness would be very interesting if they both go, especially between the top finishers of the Derby. I believe that the stretch in the Preakness is a little bit shorter naturally than CD. The race is a half of a furlong shorter. at 9.5 panels. Depending on how TwoPhil's, Mage and Angel of Empire all came out of that race (hopefully in exceptionally good order) the pace dynamics should set up for an excellent race.

I will be shocked if Angel of Empire runs in the Preakness. Cox didn't run Mandaloun back in two weeks when there was the possibility he was going to be declared the winner of the Derby.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by GaryG

Mark Cramer once observed that horses with misspelled or unpleasant names generally offered overlaid odds because bettors subconsciously shied away from them. Example: Core A Apple.

Subconscious? It actually crossed my mind, "they don't even know how to use an apostrophe, how the hell are they winning the Kentucky Derby?" I wasn't sure whether to check my bias like Cramer or just embrace the theory.

I factored him a wildcard that was a bit too rich a price, and stood him until the waning minutes, considering adding a saver with him. Sadly, I remained disciplined. I just couldn't fit him in to the already big swing I was taking, a big spread as it was.

Not sure what to think of him next time. He did get a good trip, but he ran a good race—at what point do you just accept he's a good horse?

[f2tornado]

He’s 7/9 hitting the money and winning his last two graded affairs. Good horse, no doubt, but not yet convinced he’s one to double first at the window in something like the Travers or Breeders Cup Classic.

[Inner Dirt]

I did not bet a dime on the Derby, not looking at a form but watching the race and the charts, Two Phil's is probably my Preakness pick. As for the OP
the race Two Phil's ran matched quite a few of my horses on Oaks and Derby day the only time I went in 1999. Looking like a winner at the head of the stretch only to end up 2nd or 3rd. I finally learned my lesson, betting on the Derby is a losing proposition for me. About 30 years of betting the Derby I am 4-30, and there were no prices either. Also I never hit an exacta or trifecta.
Had about the same luck betting the Belmont. I am well ahead on the Preakness.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by zico20

How do you know that if Mage had a better break and was just a couple lengths behind Two Phils down the backstretch that he wouldn't have run off and won by five. I think he would have!

Mage was 13 lengths off the pace early & Two Phil's was about 1.5 lengths off of it. That's a huge difference in early energy expenditure.

Mage's turn of foot will quickly evaporate if he reverts back to a stalking style. The evidence for this is his 2 Gulfstream efforts. Compare his Fountain of Youth effort to his FL Derby effort. Gained nearly 6 lengths on the very consistent champion Forte in the FL Derby & made that one work for the win after getting blitzed with a stalking trip in the FOY.

Originally Posted by zico20

Two Phil's didn't run better, he got a perfect trip. I hope he runs back in the Preakness, I am tossing him for the trifecta at this point. Two huge races for a horse that isn't that all talented. I just don't see three monster races in a row. I think he regresses big time if he goes.

I can see being convinced Mage is the better horse at this point, but why would you toss Two Phil's from the trifecta?

Because he's run too many good races? How do you reconcile Mage continuing to run consecutive good races w/ much less seasoning than Two Phil's?

Two Phil's certainly had a clear run (a testament to his jockey) but he was much closer to a hot pace than he ordinarily would be & had to make his bid for the lead earlier than is ideal on a track like CD with its interminable stretch.

In that regard, it's a bit curious that Mage, with absolute dead aim on sitting duck Two Phil's at the 3/16 pole, took nearly a furlong to put that rival away. And to be perfectly frank, he had Forte dead in the water in the Florida Derby, too, but blew a 3 length advantage inside the final furlong...

[Michael]

Originally Posted by zico20

How do you know that if Mage had a better break and was just a couple lengths behind Two Phils down the backstretch that he wouldn't have run off and won by five. I think he would have!

I'm not questioning Mage... However, I do personally award twophil's the kentucky derby in my mind. Obviously, he didn't win.. but his run was a derby winning run if you ask me.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Mage was 13 lengths off the pace early & Two Phil's was about 1.5 lengths off of it. That's a huge difference in early energy expenditure.

Mage's turn of foot will quickly evaporate if he reverts back to a stalking style. The evidence for this is his 2 Gulfstream efforts. Compare his Fountain of Youth effort to his FL Derby effort. Gained nearly 6 lengths on the very consistent champion Forte in the FL Derby & made that one work for the win after getting blitzed with a stalking trip in the FOY.


I can see being convinced Mage is the better horse at this point, but why would you toss Two Phil's from the trifecta?

Because he's run too many good races? How do you reconcile Mage continuing to run consecutive good races w/ much less seasoning than Two Phil's?

Two Phil's certainly had a clear run (a testament to his jockey) but he was much closer to a hot pace than he ordinarily would be & had to make his bid for the lead earlier than is ideal on a track like CD with its interminable stretch.

In that regard, it's a bit curious that Mage, with absolute dead aim on sitting duck Two Phil's at the 3/16 pole, took nearly a furlong to put that rival away. And to be perfectly frank, he had Forte dead in the water in the Florida Derby, too, but blew a 3 length advantage inside the final furlong...

Lot to dissect here. Of course turn of foot evaporates if you are closer to the lead in fast fractions but if Mage is up close in slow fractions then the turn of foot is still there but it isn't as easily noticeable.

I am tossing Two Phil's right now because I simply don't believe he is talented enough to run three huge races in a row. In his seventh start Sun Thunder blew by him, that isn't a sign of a talented, special horse. Mage on the other hand is only getting ready to run his 5th race and he has improved greatly in his last two. For a horse to run out of his comfort zone after bad starts and impress like he has means he has the ability to be something special. Seasoning goes out the window after the fourth start, besides making two monster moves shows he knows what the game is all about.

Yes it took a furlong but it wasn't like they were crawling home, Two Phil's kept running his heart out. Mage got tired in the Florida Derby after that stunning run which had it started a 16th later he wins like a champ. Thankfully Saez stupid ride made me a whole lot more money since he would have been 5-1 had he won the Florida Derby.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by zico20

Lot to dissect here. Of course turn of foot evaporates if you are closer to the lead in fast fractions but if Mage is up close in slow fractions then the turn of foot is still there but it isn't as easily noticeable.

Fair enough, but it was fast fractions in the Derby, so it would have been ill-advised to try to lay closer with Mage. The horse was certainly attractive given his FL Derby effort, but for me it wasn't certain that he would try to come off the pace again.

For example: Much was made of Reincarnate breaking slow, sitting back, and making a sustained run (with trouble) in the Rebel to the extent that I think he was made starting favorite for the Arkansas Derby. But he went right back to his speed/presser role in that race & predictably wilted for a ho-hum 3rd place finish.

I would believe Mage would have done much the same had he been up there early with Two Phil's or Confidence Game yesterday.

I am tossing Two Phil's right now because I simply don't believe he is talented enough to run three huge races in a row. In his seventh start Sun Thunder blew by him, that isn't a sign of a talented, special horse.

I don't think he needs to be special to win the Preakness & he's been consistent enough even in his losses to think he'll hold his form next out. Perhaps more so than Mage, as his career has progressed smoothly whereas Mage has had to move up leaps & bounds in a short time frame. That will take a toll on him physically eventually if they keep it up (and they are keeping it up if he wheels back in 2 weeks).

Meanwhile, Two Phil's is at a phase where his trainer is able to work him less (note he was working on average every 10 days for the Derby whereas everyone else was working every 6-7 days...including the ones that got scratched) because he's got plenty of foundation & doesn't need to be worn down with training.

Mage on the other hand is only getting ready to run his 5th race and he has improved greatly in his last two. For a horse to run out of his comfort zone after bad starts and impress like he has means he has the ability to be something special.

I don't think he's out of his comfort zone sitting back and unleashing a huge run. I think they stumbled upon (no pun intended) his preferred style. Hopefully they stick to it.

Seasoning goes out the window after the fourth start, besides making two monster moves shows he knows what the game is all about.

My point with seasoning is that the horse is having to do too much too soon & eventually it will catch up with him. However, perhaps your right & he has the constitution of a horse like Curlin who had the book thrown at him & kept rolling.

Yes it took a furlong but it wasn't like they were crawling home, Two Phil's kept running his heart out. Mage got tired in the Florida Derby after that stunning run which had it started a 16th later he wins like a champ. Thankfully Saez stupid ride made me a whole lot more money since he would have been 5-1 had he won the Florida Derby.

I see a bit of hang in him. Street Sense--who had phenomenal acceleration--was like that, too, but got the job done most of the time.

At this juncture, I think there's a good chance we see a similar battle from these two in the Preakness. Hopefully some solid speed lines up so that neither horse has to change tactics too much.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by GaryG

Mark Cramer once observed that horses with misspelled or unpleasant names generally offered overlaid odds because bettors subconsciously shied away from them. Example: Core A Apple.

I almost did not include Two Phil's in my Derby exacta box (which didn't hit anyway) because of the apostrophe.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

I almost did not include Two Phil's in my Derby exacta box (which didn't hit anyway) because of the apostrophe.

I just pretend he's got one owner of Italian descent & "Two Phil" is his neighborhood nickname:

YouTube

[Inner Dirt]

Look at the chart, Two Phil's was the only horse close to the pace who did not fad badly in the stretch.

[Robert Fischer]

they both ran well. So did Angel of Empire.

Mage flashed some brilliance and wasn't blunted by the setup (he got a good setup)
Two Phil's indicated that his stretch runs may now be expected to be consistently strong. He stayed on very well and galloped out very well. I know this was a all-in huge event and big purse and incentives and all eyes, but too often you see a 'Two Phil's' get passed and then the effort from jockey stops and the horse feels it and you're lucky to get 3rd on your ticket. Often no gallop-out. It was nice to see.

Two Phil's arguably ran the best race. His brilliance was blunted a little from the tough setup, and Mage is just more of a flashy run type, and Angel of Empire has that relentless stride.

3 big performances.

derma sotogake ran troubled enough that he didn't disprove his abilities in my opinion.

Hit Show was more involved than i expected and he finished closer fin pos than I expected, but if Mage, Two Phils and Angel of Empire are G1, then Hit Show is about where I thought (in spite of not contending) at 'G2' (and G2 is fucking GOOD, not a knock if anyone misinterprets this) (I liked him but expected a worse trip).

Tapit Trice was a horse that went off 5-1 and I said you should confidently toss him from the exacta or even more placings, before the race, but I also thought he is a very good G2 that can (and already has) do some big running in races that fit him.

Kingsbarns was an easy toss at 4th choice (and 4th choice here wasn't a ton more money than many other mid range to 20ish/1 shots) but he is a very good G3 who may shine if health and race selection are good.

Verifying is a horse I thought was G1/G2 and did no running, albeit against a nightmare pace/flow. He may yet run some good races.

Practical Move is a solid horse, Disarm may keep improving (hopefully beyond 3yo)... Others that didn't enter the Derby are damn good.

This is a good crop (i know horseplayers almost never say this).

[PhantomOnTour]

Rivelli says he will not run Two Phil's in the Preakness.

https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/2...for-two-phils-

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Look at the chart, Two Phil's was the only horse close to the pace who did not fad badly in the stretch.

He's a beast!

[metro]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Look at the chart, Two Phil's was the only horse close to the pace who did not fad badly in the stretch.

Didn’t those faders finish where most handicappers thought they would, regardless of what the expected pace was going to be? Going into the race how many “professionals” were touting Jaces Road, Kingsbarn, or Reincarnate?

Verifying would be the outlier, I can understand them wanting to use speed from their inside draw to get position but not to that extent.

Speed and stalking types were what played best all week in dirt races at CD too, exact trip that Two Phil’s got. The horse ran a good race but let’s wait awhile for his coronation.