Late money "still king" Mahoning 7th

[porchy44]

7th race Mahoning, I bet (# 1 Due North .)ML 9/2. Breaks out of the gate at 4/1.

Halfway down the stretch announcer calls him "up by 10." Right on cue, the horse drops to 6/5 Im watching from app on phone.

I know this has been discussed ad nauseum, still bothers me. (I know, why do i still love this game ?)

[thaskalos]

A friend of mine was the manager at a now defunct OTB...and I complained to him about a similar case a couple of years ago. His reply to me was:

"You fvcking horseplayers are never satisfied. You get 6/5 on a runaway winner...and you still complain".

[porchy44]

You know what is interesting, the 3/5 horse that went up to 7/5 bolted on the turn and was walked off. Seems like when something goes amiss with the heavy favorite during the race, his odds go up. No hard data, just many years of observation. This is from a man who always had a habit of keeping one eye on the board during a race.

[The_Turf_Monster]

What do people expect to happen when everybody is sitting around their computers waiting til the absolute last second to bet? It’s like being stuck in traffic and complaining about it

[Gamblin4ever]

A few years back, racetracks were closing wagering @ 2MTP due to a P6 scandal that happened. IMO that worked out as all wagers were in at start of race and horseplayers pretty much new the odds.

[Robert Fischer]

The 'wise guys' have been very sharp today.

Either that, or I've been wrong a lot.

One thing today, a lot of the bad/low ML favs haven't taken money.

As I type this, I was going to bet against DELTA R10 9/5 ml ... currently 9/2...

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

The 'wise guys' have been very sharp today.

Either that, or I've been wrong a lot.

One thing today, a lot of the bad/low ML favs haven't taken money.

As I type this, I was going to bet against DELTA R10 9/5 ml ... currently 9/2...

And crushes them at 5/1. That kinda day...

camaraderie

[dlivery]

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

What do people expect to happen when everybody is sitting around their computers waiting til the absolute last second to bet? It’s like being stuck in traffic and complaining about it

When young would wonder why we have traffic lights waiting seconds to go by.

[jay68802]

Robert, 4 was lone speed. Period. That race is not a fluke. Look at the results, speed dominated for the late Pick 4, the exception was 1/2, in the 9th.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by porchy44

7th race Mahoning, I bet (# 1 Due North .)ML 9/2. Breaks out of the gate at 4/1.

Halfway down the stretch announcer calls him "up by 10." Right on cue, the horse drops to 6/5 Im watching from app on phone.

I know this has been discussed ad nauseum, still bothers me. (I know, why do i still love this game ?)

It's interesting that there are numerous responses to this, yet nobody actually watched the race to check the accuracy of this initial post. It's completely inaccurate. The first time the horses odds were show, maybe ten seconds, at most, into the race, he was 6:5.

As usual, nothing to see here.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Robert, 4 was lone speed. Period. That race is not a fluke. Look at the results, speed dominated for the late Pick 4, the exception was 1/2, in the 9th.

My point is that there are things that the market did not like to cause a projected lone speed, on a track that may havee a speed-bias, to go 5:1 off a 9:5 line.

Probably a dumb over-reaction by the market. That can happen when there is a 'consensus' bad ML-Fav, and players have a commitment-bias. Kinda like when everyone likes a mid-priced longshot (as a mid-priced long shot) and he goes off at 7:2. Market can overreact sometimes, rather than the rational thing of setting a fair range of value (say for a bad ml fav of 9:5 who has pace projection and track bias on the other side should be 5:2-7:2 range, and stop betting against above that). It's not like the horse was 3:1 entering the gate, where they all bet at once and overreached; he was 9:2 with 3-4mtp when I made that post.

I hope some observant players like yourself bet that horse.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by porchy44

7th race Mahoning, I bet (# 1 Due North .)ML 9/2. Breaks out of the gate at 4/1.

Halfway down the stretch announcer calls him "up by 10." Right on cue, the horse drops to 6/5 Im watching from app on phone.

I know this has been discussed ad nauseum, still bothers me. (I know, why do i still love this game ?)

"late money is king" only when it's not..or when the late money is only in the win pool and not extended into the exacta pool.
if I had the desire, and my programing skills back, I have enough data to prove or disprove it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by the little guy

It's interesting that there are numerous responses to this, yet nobody actually watched the race to check the accuracy of this initial post. It's completely inaccurate. The first time the horses odds were show, maybe ten seconds, at most, into the race, he was 6:5.

As usual, nothing to see here.

Well, there is something to see. Accuracy. Thanks for providing it. Once again.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Well, there is something to see. Accuracy. Thanks for providing it. Once again.

On the reply I saw the odds do flash on the screen for a second as the final horse is quickly loaded, and the is indeed 4/1. So the OP's take is accurate on that.

But TLG is right that the odds then show 6/5 when they're first displayed on the backstretch.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

On the reply I saw the odds do flash on the screen for a second as the final horse is quickly loaded, and the is indeed 4/1. So the OP's take is accurate on that.

But he’s not right. He says “he breaks out of the gate at 4:1” which we do not know, and then he says they change when he is well ahead in the stretch, which we know is incorrect. The entire premise of this thread is completely inaccurate.

On the other hand, thanks for at least watching unlike basically everyone else.