Clarification on Barry Meadows Exacta payoff overlay

[TP83WPS]

Hi all and thanks in advance...

Given the method is 50% overlay the odds in an exacta, is the calculation based on where you've drawn your fair value odds or the odds on the current tote board?

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by TP83WPS

Hi all and thanks in advance...

Given the method is 50% overlay the odds in an exacta, is the calculation based on where you've drawn your fair value odds or the odds on the current tote board?

You are betting any exacta 50% over fair value (determined using YOUR line). Of course back when he and others started writing about this idea there was no rebates and no CAW. Back then you would be in front of the TV writing down the latest exacta probables and running to the window to get your bets in before getting shut out. It was a different world back then. Now you have the sharpest bettors alive, getting very fat rebates, using very sophisticated betting tools, betting huge sums of money in the closing seconds knocking out any of that value that once existed in this game.

But if interested give it your best shot. Find the value combos and see how many maintain their value after the betting is done and more importantly see if it makes you money. If you want to play it on paper just copy and paste the exacta probables at post time into a spreadsheet. That way after the race or whenever, you can identify all the "value" combos, see how many actually remained value once the betting was finished and see how they perform. If this is a new concept to you I would just focus on making a line, exploiting value in the win pool or wps pools (if you like place and or show betting) and then after you have a lot of data showing that your can be profitable, bring "value exactas" into your arsenal then and only then.

As a rule I like making an odds line because it forces you to spend time really looking at each horse. So often when I handicap the multi leg exotics I rush my capping and miss too many important factors. When you actually have to come up with a fair odds line for each horse you take away that issue (at least most of the time). Of course the trade off is time.

[TP83WPS]

Wow!
Thank you so much for your response and clarification.

I always make an odds line (even when I am tossing horses out - they have to be assigned a value)

Do you have a rule of thumb for playing WIN in terms of comparison with your value line?

I know Meadows is 50% for this as well, I feel like the Win Pool could afford to give way a few less percentage points instead of exotics.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by TP83WPS

Wow!
Thank you so much for your response and clarification.

I always make an odds line (even when I am tossing horses out - they have to be assigned a value)

Do you have a rule of thumb for playing WIN in terms of comparison with your value line?

I know Meadows is 50% for this as well, I feel like the Win Pool could afford to give way a few less percentage points instead of exotics.

I personally never thought 50% was needed in the win pools. I never found the exacta value situations worked very well for me. I personally think exactas/trifecta are best attacked with trip in mind rather than probabilities. For example you like one E type runner to dominate 3 others, than you want to find horses in the rest of the field to complete the exacta/trifecta. Back in the day I would be happy with a 2-1 at 5/2 or 6-1 at 8-1 etc. Yes even back then there were plenty of times my 6-1 would become 5-1 or 2-1 would become 9/5. More often than not, I would retain most of my value. Logically speaking one would think that the more "value" you demand the better off you will/should do. In other words if you are not happy with your results maybe require double fair line and sure you will make money now (just having less bets). However, I will call your attention to the thread I posted a couple of years ago, because it deal with this very subject. It is based off of my performance in Harness Racing so if you think harness racing is fixed or at least somewhat orchestrated than maybe you fill find my recent failings as a capper not too surprising. But definitely read it over, as it may spur some thoughts regarding your own play. At the very least, I think spending the time to enter your line, the final odds, (maybe even the odds at a time when you can actually make the bet example when the horses start loading the gate), finish positions and wps payoffs will help you compile the necessary data to determine how effective this tool works for you long term. I know as a person who considers himself a really good harness race handicapper, I wasn't pleased with what I came up with . As I am now getting back into betting horses (took a long while off), both thoros and harness. I am trying to become a little more cognizant of what mistakes I might be making. I am not lining races right now, but I still can get an idea where my capping is going wrong. So far what I am coming up with is barn changes. Even horses going from one 12% trainer to another 12% trainer have been popping up with some big form reversals.

Anyways, here is the the thread I am speaking of.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...horse+database