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Old 03-26-2023, 09:28 PM   #46
ReplayRandall
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
There is no debate, let alone argument.

Perceptions and now prices have unquestionably changed dramatically over the last 2 years about the overall quality of Japanese racing among US talking heads.

His response was a wordy way of saying "don't give yourself so much credit, you aren't the only one that noticed much earlier". I didn't claim that. I claimed a lot of people didn't notice or they wouldn't be making such a big deal about it now on TV, social media, and in print.
You should know by now when you are OUTCLASSED....it's futile...pick better spots than Spalding.
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Old 03-26-2023, 11:34 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Don't you have anything better to do?
Please, not in front of the interns...


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There's obviously been a huge change in perception around the world and on the odds board about the quality of Japanese racing in general and specifically dirt racing over the last couple of years (which is what I was mostly referring to).
...and a huge goalpost change noted: Dirt racing only...

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That a few Japanese superstars of the past shipped and got bet (and mostly didn't win) or that other people were also aware of the change means exactly what?
I must have reading comprehension issues. You just got done saying that there's a "huge change...on the odds board" regarding Japanese shippers but now confirm my earlier statement that Japanese shippers have been getting hammered at the windows for decades.

I know, I know...dirt, dirt. I'll get to that.

Also, I guess I misinterpreted "I was wise enough...before the whole world caught on..." to mean you alone vs. everyone else. Maybe it was all the other "I's in your post.

Perhaps switching to the royal "we" would help...you've earned it.

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If it was so obvious, we wouldn't be hearing all the paid talking heads on TV and on social media making such a big deal about it now. They would have been betting them all along at bigger prices.
Betting who exactly? Who are all these Japanese dirt shippers you picked up on 10 years ago? Better yet, what were these international dirt races that they were shipping in for that long ago?

Certainly the US efforts of Ski Captain, Taiki Blizzard, and Personal Rush didn't betray the impending onslaught of Japanese might in the past 3 years.

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Perceptions and now prices have unquestionably changed dramatically over the last 2 years about the overall quality of Japanese racing among US talking heads.
Actually, the real change has little to do with perceptions & odds boards. It has everything to do with the increasing amount of Japanese participation on the international stage.

Ignoring turf, here's the last few years of Japanese starters in the major international dirt races (i.e., the BC, Dubai, and Saudi):

2018 - 4 starters, 0 wins
2019 - 3 starters, 0 wins
2020 - 5 starters, 1 win
2021 - 17 starters, 3 wins
2022 - 15 starters, 1 win
2023 (only 3 months in) - 31 starters, 3 wins

This year's Japanese winners won at square prices if you could get a bet down.

The catch? With multiple Japanese starters running in the same race (e.g. 8 in the Dubai WC and 6 in the Saudi Cup), it's not enough to say that the Japanese are on par in terms of quality.

You still have to handicap the race and bet the correct Japanese horse...
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Old 03-27-2023, 09:14 AM   #48
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spalding,

I don't spend a lot of time analyzing every sentence I write to make sure no one anywhere could possibly misunderstand me. If I misunderstand them, I accept it when they clarify their position.

This is how I see it.

IMO, if you were to set each country's overall Grade/Group racing on each surface to some kind of numeric standard, I don't think many would argue that US turf racing is at the top. However, it's good enough to occasionally produce horses that can compete with the best in the world and maybe even win.

In years past, I don't think most people regarded Japanese turf racing to be as good as the best turf racing in Europe. But it was good enough to produce the occasional star that could compete with the best.

IMO, the gap between Japanese dirt racing and the best dirt racing in the US was probably considered wider, but they were making big investments trying to improve it.

As to recent success, I don't think Japan is doing so well because it's competing more on the world stage. I think the overall quality of their racing has improved on both surfaces, but even more so on dirt. So there are more horses they believe are worth sending around the world to compete and more that can contend and win.

As to the quality of their dirt racing, imo winning in Dubai and Saudi Arabia is not quite the same as winning elite dirt races in the US. Some of those races are very good, but they are typically not up to the top Grade 1 standards in the US. However, it's good enough to make me think that at the rate at which they are winning and/or in the top few slots they are getting pretty close to being able to come to the US and have very good success on dirt here too.

IMO, that theoretical rating I mentioned above has been rising in recent years but even faster on dirt.

I can't recall what the triggers were that made me think the racing there was getting better (especially on dirt because that's where I focus more attention). The first one I can recall taking a stab on was Espoir City (and I don't need a book describing his career and races). I bet him in offshore futures against Zenyatta at a big price. The reason I remember that one is that after I made the bet I read that he was working very poorly and I had no way to cancel my bet.

I don't think I'm the only one that saw the emergence of Japanese racing (especially dirt) coming. But I think perceptions in general among many US fans and gamblers is just catching up to reality because of this flurry of success.
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Old 03-27-2023, 10:10 AM   #49
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"As to the quality of their dirt racing, imo winning in Dubai and Saudi Arabia is not quite the same as winning elite dirt races in the US."


That was true, but on what basis is that true anymore?

Higher purses attract higher quality horses, Japan has very deep dirt tracks and horses that are capable of running long distances while we continue to breed and sell speed

The Dubai World Cup card this past Saturday was as good as it ever has been and was dominated unsurprisingly by Japan

Japanese raiders have had increasing success at the biggest purses around the world over the past few years while American racing has been on the decline

NY racing is simply not what it used to be, California can barely fill a couple of cards a week and the California horse population is depleted on a good day

Juridictions like Japan and HK (and elsewhere in Asia in future given the rise of their economies) are only further evidence that this is going to be the Asian Century (much as I'd prefer it that American 'experts' like tlg continue to underestimate this - keep those odds inflated folks)

https://www.ft.com/content/520cb6f6-...b-ff8ef2b976c7
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Old 03-27-2023, 10:36 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Sheffwed View Post
That was true, but on what basis is that true anymore?
https://www.ft.com/content/520cb6f6-...b-ff8ef2b976c7

You seem even more enthusiastic about the recent development of Japanese and other Asian racing than me.

I think the best overall dirt racing is still in the US. We send some very good horses to Dubai, but we don't always send our best or best few, especially in some categories. IMO, our very best dirt races are still higher in quality and deeper in quality. I could easily be overestimating the difference though. I may find out soon enough. And other than that, I agree with you.
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Old 03-27-2023, 11:25 AM   #51
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fun seeing two guys whom I respect trade commentary



/DWC23 - this year was a bit weaker from the US contingent. A sometimes as potent as ever Baffert sent a sometimes as good as ever Country Grammer, but that was the extent of our horses entered.

I only watched the finish, but did not notice Country Grammer (alright.. he was sitting 4th far turn).

It looked like Bendoog and Remorse (both Bhupat Seemar runners) ran solid performances on a pace and performance attempt that was too much for their lack of talent and class.

Then the best of the Japanese contingent ( Algiers (IRE) ) made first run, and then a good closer of theirs flowed up late to win at an even better price than Algiers.

basically the same song; Japan sent some hard-hitters, we had 1 horse who Baffert would consider a 'B' or 'C' among his stakes horses.

A few other decent runners entered, but aside from field size and purse, it would be considered weak for G1, unless you really reach to look at it from the perspective of it being a G1 Japanese race.
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Old 03-27-2023, 12:17 PM   #52
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Then the best of the Japanese contingent ( Algiers (IRE) ) made first run, and then a good closer of theirs flowed up late to win at an even better price than Algiers.
Algiers is UK trained and UAE Sultan owned (rather than being a Japanese interest). He is going to be pointed towards the Breeders' Cup (assuming the Classic) per reports today out of the UK:

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2023...s'-cup-aim
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Old 03-27-2023, 01:56 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
Algiers is UK trained and UAE Sultan owned (rather than being a Japanese interest). He is going to be pointed towards the Breeders' Cup (assuming the Classic) per reports today out of the UK:

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2023...s'-cup-aim
Thanks.

Was Algiers the favorite? Replays show numbers but not odds, but for some reason I was thinking that he somehow was even money.

Did not cap or bet the race, just a few glances + watched the stretch replay.

That being the case, Japan basically won the race from capitalizing on late flow and a good trip. Nothing 'scary' there.
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