dirt racing becoming an afterthought

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Japan will send more of the same, if not better. One of them is going to win it.

If they don't, it won't be due to lack of quality broodmares/sires!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I definitely saw a pace meltdown, and had Mo Donegal as my Derby winner last year. Got nearly the same trip as RS, but when RS got the inside, MD went outside and fought and banged with Barber Road the entire stretch. Thankfully got half my $ back in the Belmont.

When you are playing deep closers in a 20 horse field, things need to almost fall perfect in order to win. For Rich Strike, and the jock on board in Sonny Leon, all the perfect things and decisions happened. Street Sense, Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Rich Strike, Orb. While Orb and Street Sense were wagered more heavily, they all needed things to fall their way as well.

As for Crown Pride, I still fully believe that is a very good horse. Certainly a horse that was a solid contender in last year's Kentucky Derby.

Japan will send more of the same, if not better. One of them is going to win it.

It's going to be hard.
They sure as hell won't be dominating the triple crown.

They have a long shot chance of winning any time soon, but at least contending, definitely seems to be what the trend is leading to.

Dubai is even a longer shot, but they have an excellent trainer in Bhupat Seemar. (I get lost on these things, but Saudi Cup day seems to be coming up relatively soon, and I'd watch some of ( if any ) entrants for Seemar.
This guy came over and learned from Bob Baffert for a while. With Summer is Tommorow you can see the resemblance of style. For me Summer is Tommorow was equivalent to about a 3rd string Baffert Derby type, but dismissed on the tote board and with all Seemar's eggs in one basket. Hey, Summer is Tommorow finished 20th i think. I think he was dead last. I thought the pace was pretty hot, but you know, Epicenter ran very well. Crown Pride, Taiba ran fairly well, it's tough to be exact in those things.

Breeders Cup? We had eight horses pre-entered in 2021 shipped in from Japan to Del Mar, then last year at Keeneland, we just had 1 Japanese horse pre-entered. It's reasonable ( and I'm channeling Amazing Kreskin here; ) to think that 2023 Santa Anita Breeders' Cup will at least be on the radar for Japanese based connections.

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by the little guy

One of my very favorite things about pathetic haters like you is your ability to say stupid things simply in an attempt, attempts that consistently fall flat, to insult me.

I was thinking mostly about the history of myopia from racing journalists like Bill Finley, who thought Betfair should be banned from the US (huh?), or the late Paul Moran who probably went to his deathbed thinking Easy Goer was better than Sunday Silence (speaking of Japan)

but of course your definitive "never" statement fits in nicely to be sure

NY racing is on a decline, the quality of Aqueduct racing has been terrible of late for just one example, even if not quite falling apart to the degree being seen in California, and wait until we have the "new" diminished Belmont - how will all this not affect our ability to compete going forward in big races?

And how many times have we had a wild longshot - at least once a decade, including just last year - what do you know, a horse won the Derby who nobody gave a second thought to - let alone the likes of Mine that Bird, Giacomo and Country House in 2019 was perhaps the weakest Derby winner of our generation

Look at the last 5 Kentucky Derbies - two of the last 5 were won by those who didn't cross the wire first (!), one time the race was in the fall due to the pandemic, one was Country House and the other was Rich Strike! Lots of predictability there

Seriously, I would bet a lot of money on a winner of the Derby over the next 5 years coming from overseas if there was a way to bet on that and the odds were right

Anyway, here in 2023, if you bet on "everyone else" in the Future Pools so far, I guess you got both the Baffert horses if they switch to other trainers + all the overseas possibilities - if only the odds on that were better than 2-1, it would have been real value

[alydar]

Through many measurements all of American racing has been on decline for sometime. However, NY racing still is the best product in the US now and has been for a long time. Of course seasonally the winters are tough. But as a whole nothing comes close to the NYRA product.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Al Gobbi

at least at Gulfstream this week

Wednesday: 1 race carded for dirt
Thursday: 2 races carded for dirt
Friday: 4 races carded for dirt
Saturday: 2 races carded for dirt
Sunday: 1 race carded for dirt

racing in general is relying too much on grass/synthetic, IMO.

I can't find the handle for Gulfstream 2022 or so far this year. I wonder how synthetic has effected the handle.

[azeri98]

If you look at the GP dirt races. There are usually between 6-8 horses. The turf and Tapeta fields draw more. Not sure why.

[$w1fT]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

I was thinking mostly about the history of myopia from racing journalists like Bill Finley, who thought Betfair should be banned from the US (huh?), or the late Paul Moran who probably went to his deathbed thinking Easy Goer was better than Sunday Silence (speaking of Japan)

but of course your definitive "never" statement fits in nicely to be sure

NY racing is on a decline, the quality of Aqueduct racing has been terrible of late for just one example, even if not quite falling apart to the degree being seen in California, and wait until we have the "new" diminished Belmont - how will all this not affect our ability to compete going forward in big races?

And how many times have we had a wild longshot - at least once a decade, including just last year - what do you know, a horse won the Derby who nobody gave a second thought to - let alone the likes of Mine that Bird, Giacomo and Country House in 2019 was perhaps the weakest Derby winner of our generation

Look at the last 5 Kentucky Derbies - two of the last 5 were won by those who didn't cross the wire first (!), one time the race was in the fall due to the pandemic, one was Country House and the other was Rich Strike! Lots of predictability there

Seriously, I would bet a lot of money on a winner of the Derby over the next 5 years coming from overseas if there was a way to bet on that and the odds were right

Anyway, here in 2023, if you bet on "everyone else" in the Future Pools so far, I guess you got both the Baffert horses if they switch to other trainers + all the overseas possibilities - if only the odds on that were better than 2-1, it would have been real value

I think based on todays results, saying a euro or Japanese horse will “never” win a Derby over here is foolish. I completely agree with you.

[cj]

Originally Posted by $w1fT

I think based on todays results, saying a euro or Japanese horse will “never” win a Derby over here is foolish. I completely agree with you.

Lots of foreign based horses have looked great overseas on dirt. Never seems to transfer here though. Never? I'd never say never. I mean Rich Strike won the Derby, anything can happen. But I'm not putting stock in what happens in Saudi or Dubai.

[Robert Fischer]

Hopefully they are overlooked in the Breeder's Cup.

[NTamm1215]

I'd bet that a Japanese based horse wins a TC race in the next 10 years. Not necessarily a Triple Crown but I could easily see it happening.

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by cj

Lots of foreign based horses have looked great overseas on dirt. Never seems to transfer here though. Never? I'd never say never. I mean Rich Strike won the Derby, anything can happen. But I'm not putting stock in what happens in Saudi or Dubai.

It could be that the North American horses run on drugs which is not allowed overseas

[classhandicapper]

IMO, the quality of the dirt racing in Japan has obviously taken a big step forward, but at this point I'd still liken it to turf racing in the US compared to Europe. A special dirt horse might come out of Japan (as an elite turfer is occasionally produced in the US), but generally, it's still a notch below US dirt dirt racing.

[Someday Silent]

Dirt racing is still top priority. Tracks like Gulfstream and Santa Anita have racing pretty much year round, so carding events on other surfaces (especially the synth at Gulfstream) helps protect the main track.

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by the little guy

No you won’t

Yes you will

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

Yes you will

Since you're slow, I will make it easier for you. He said Germany AND Japan. Good luck seeing a German horse win a TC race.

I know subtlety isn't your thing so figured I would help.