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Old 02-26-2016, 07:20 AM   #1
NorCalGreg
 
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Arrow *Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

Decided to move my tack over here, if no one minds. The old thread seemed to become another selection thread, with limited handicapping ideas or discussion. Thask started the old HTW thread, with the intention of board members posting their own Horses To Watch. A noble idea, just wasn't enough participation. I, and others kept it going by posting whatever--Horses to Watch, method/angle testing, etc. I took to just typing up what ever was on my mind, rants, praises, complaints---and my specialty...writing up entire essays on peculiar Trainer moves.

Some of the PM's I've gotten were memorable---had one hot streak last summer...you ever get in a zone with your handicapping---and can't lose?
There's some Twitter groups that scour the 'net--finding 'cappers who are winning.
They briefly found me...I was flattered, really...they said nice things.

Til the inevitable streak stopped cold. I went from being the toast of Twitter--to the scum of the earth People can be soooo cruel.
Another thing I noticed...alot of members here, seem to prefer PM over actually posting. That is perfectly fine , no problem there.

Hope some of you will join me---Post an angle...your own methods--particular software program ya have is killing it--let us all know, please. Would really rather have company here--john, Ucapper, creek, Winger, mike, lambo, big red, Randall....and everyone else. Ideally, post anything, with some 'capping knowledge attached--so we can maybe learn something. I know some of you Seniors on this board--are some of the sharpest 'cappers we have.

Enough of my history....The last thing I was doing, was posting plays of a new longshot method. The method started out as a "sub-24 second final quarter" offshoot. As most methods are in a state of flux--this one has quickly evolved into "hidden move" method. The TIPS program labels this FHWO (fast hidden workout) & HWO (hidden workout).
Basically the horse made some kind of move--within the previous race.

I added a Pace component--and further refined it, with a screening process.

Some were posted yesterday...4-5 plays--no winners. It IS a longshot method--so a good benchmark for a win rate is 10%..@ $25 avg mutual. That's what I'm shooting for.
Also, if you've never really looked at the HTW thread--I post something called the "$1 lotto straight superfecta". It's just that--a straight $1 super play--that I find while 'capping a track somewhere. It hasn't hit yet--but hell, if you play the lottery--play this lottery--it's just a buck.

More to follow--thanks for taking the time to read this

-NCG
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Old 02-26-2016, 07:28 AM   #2
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--YESTERDAY'S POST

Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:Charlestown~Race-2 -->> 2-1-7-3

Did some thinking and some research on the "sub-24" spot-play--came to the conclusion it just may be the hidden/big move/gain, instead of relying solely on the fast late quarter-mile. I've added a Pace Component, and also screened every pick for certain TIPS--from the software-- that I noticed were prevalent in some longshot winners.
I've never tried using 2 or 3 different software programs--in addition to my own basic handicapping--to arrive at what should now be more solid selections.

We will see.


*CHARLESTOWN

6TH WHOLLY HUGHES 15-1

*DELTA

6TH ABRAHAM 5-1

8TH CULLEN 20-1


*GOLDEN GATE

6TH ZOOMZOOMANIA 12-1

*OAKLAWN

6TH JOY OF THE SAINTS 20-1

7TH PADEN 10-1



*concerning the CTX lotto super...I found 4 horses in the 2nd that--singely didn't qualify for a win bet--but collectively 3 stood out. I added another to make the super--but I'm also playing a $1 tri box (Charlestown is so elite, a 50cent trifecta is apparently beneath them)

2ND RACE-- key the with , , --that will cost $18


Got a good feeling about this spot-play, but then again...I've felt good about a lot of spot-plays. Since I'm not rich--my good feeling hasn't panned out yet. But what's great about horseracing--tomorrow's a new day.

have a good day

-NCG



***Didn't hit any, yesterday--so today is the 2nd day
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Old 02-26-2016, 07:43 AM   #3
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"HTW/PACE METHOD" 2/26

--CHARLESTOWN

5TH TURNOUT 8-1

--SUNLAND

6TH VERNISSAGE 20-1

--OAKLAWN

7TH PUSHING ON A STRING 10-1

--PENN

6TH BAD STORM RISING 30-1

--TAMPA

7TH HUNTSTOWN 12-1

10TH TRIB 12-1

--TURFWAY

4TH AD MELIORA 15-1

10TH INDIANA CHARLIE 15-1



*I count 8 before scratches--

-NCG
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Old 02-26-2016, 08:07 AM   #4
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Standouts Today 2/26

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:PENN~Race-6 -->> 4-11-7-5



---Jacks Party

Notes-- *CFN* Sunland no effort CLAIMED 8-1 b-2
Activity type 8-1 ML
Activity date 02-26-2016
Track Sunland Park
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 8 Post position 7


---Pegasus Red

Notes BACK IN A HURRY--SITTING ON A WIN
Activity type 7/2 ML
Activity date 02-26-2016
Track Aqueduct
Surface Inner track
Distance 6 Furlongs
Race number 5 Post position 3

--Bayott

Notes 02/03 --ABSOLUTELY NO EFFORT--RTW
Activity type 15-1 ML
Activity date 02-26-2016
Track Penn National
Surface Dirt
Distance 6 Furlongs
Race number 6 Post position 2
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Old 02-26-2016, 08:39 AM   #5
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**Lone Speed entered today:
CTX
-RACE 1 TENACIOUS CHILD 6-1
-RACE 3 SILVER WARLORD 5/2
-RACE 8 LOVE TO PROSPECT 2-1

GGF
RACE 1 PROPHETINPARADISE 7/2

OAK
RACE 3 BURNT ORANGEDINI 12-1


---------------------------------------------------------------------

***Lately a few of us have been 'capping with
THEETOPTHREE software
these are my plays today @ Delta
I only chose Delta because someone
said NOTHING WORKS AT DELTA

1ST - YES ITS BETTS
6TH - LUKES BAD BOY
7TH - TOUGH JEANS
8TH - - - -- EX & TRI BOX
9TH - OUR LADY ALLIE


have a good day

-NCG
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Old 02-26-2016, 01:07 PM   #6
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I'd be happy to support your thread when I got some goods, but I'd hate to see that HTW thread die. Even though it has evolved, Azeri just made the 2000th post to it. Would be a shame to see it fizzle out. It's been the action of the board for quite awhile now.
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Old 02-26-2016, 03:08 PM   #7
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[

***Lately a few of us have been 'capping with
THEETOPTHREE software
these are my plays today @ Delta
I only chose Delta because someone
said NOTHING WORKS AT DELTA

1ST - YES ITS BETTS
6TH - LUKES BAD BOY
7TH - TOUGH JEANS
8TH - - - -- EX & TRI BOX
9TH - OUR LADY ALLIE


have a good day

-NCG[/QUOTE]


I'll be watching, maybe you can show me how to make TTT work at Delta.
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Old 02-26-2016, 03:18 PM   #8
NorCalGreg
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
I'd be happy to support your thread when I got some goods, but I'd hate to see that HTW thread die. Even though it has evolved, Azeri just made the 2000th post to it. Would be a shame to see it fizzle out. It's been the action of the board for quite awhile now.


Well thank you, 'capper. You always seemed to be a stand-up guy. I'm a product of the Oakland Public School system...so I feel your pain, about
Seattle. That thread wont die, necessarily....was just going in a different direction, lately.
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Old 02-26-2016, 03:26 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
I'll be watching, maybe you can show me how to make TTT work at Delta.


Okay....let's see if the picks are profitable--if not, no need to show anyone THAT method
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Old 02-26-2016, 08:06 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Okay....let's see if the picks are profitable--if not, no need to show anyone THAT method


Using THAT method with TTT at OP, I had to use the top PP rating instead of the TTT number to make it profitable. With 52 wagers made it's showing a 1.24 Roi.
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Old 02-26-2016, 08:34 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
Using THAT method with TTT at OP, I had to use the top PP rating instead of the TTT number to make it profitable. With 52 wagers made it's showing a 1.24 Roi.


I've always said, greenie...PRIME POWER is the absolute BEST commercial rating--from 1 to 5. Need an odds line? There is not a thing wrong with using Prime Power--it's up to the individual to assign the "weight" or odds, to give each of the top 5. With some research that's a very real goal.

I am completely, 100% convinced that any horseplayer willing to do the work--can easily find profitable selections.

If that is all this game required for success....me, you, and alot of others would be very wealthy men and women. Unfortunately, as you know, greenie--the ability to pick winners....is where success only BEGINS in this game.
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Old 02-26-2016, 09:32 PM   #12
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--This was a recent post on the frustrations in dealing with BRIS:

Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
You have more patience than I, eb......I gave up trying to call Bris about ANYTHING.
They're a perfect example of complacency in a company that's on top--and sees no reason to update, improve, and STAY ON TOP.

One day soon, a smaller, more dynamic company will take them on--and Bris will become K-MART.

For proof, just look at their 1990's era website---old information, dead links, failure to upgrade even the simplest areas.

Rest on your laurels if you insist, Bris---but keep an eye on your rear-view mirror.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'd like to add another thing...something I find very frustrating: Since I use software alot, and also constantly researching methods and angles...I'm signed up for the UNLIMITED DATA PLAN. I'ts a set fee, download files to your heart's content.

So a few months back--decided I wouldn't be needing the Unlimited data file plan for a few months--had plenty of files already, to use for research. I looked all over the site to end my subscription--found I will have to physically call Bris to accomplish this.

What the hell? In this advanced day of doing almost everything with a mouse-click..I have to make the dreaded BRIS CALL. I've found that, in itself, completely frustrating. This was no different...the person I spoke with, spoke perfect english--she just didn't what the heck I wanted.
She finally transferred me to someone more knowledgeable on this apparently complicated process, who informed me I would have to SEND AN E-MAIL TO SOMEONE ELSE--just to cancel. Which I reluctantly did.

Flash forward to a month ago---I decide I now need to re-activate my Unlimited Data Plan. Absolutely could not do this online--I would click "activate" and would get a message stating "you are already an active Unlimited plan member"

So...another dreaded Bris Call, more run-around---til finally--was told I need to SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL TO THE SAME PERSON, TO RE-ACTIVATE.

I won't name the person--she doesn't run the company, but I did voice my concerns with their antiquated website, and mind-boggling process, in my e-mail. Even asked her why Bris seems to make it difficult to spend money with them.
The reply:

Mr XXXXXXX

This is to confirm the Unlimited PP Data Plan 9W has been added to your
Brisnet.com account effective today, February 8th, per your request.
You will be required to remain on the Plan at least through March 31st.
The Unlimited PP Data Plan 9W can be cancelled on or after March 31st, at the end of any given month.
When you wish to cancel your Plan, you MUST send an email to xxxxxxxx@brisnet.com
PRIOR to the end of the month of cancellation.
I do understand and apologize for your frustration in having to send an email
every time you want to sign up or cancel an unlimited plan.
We are in a bit of transition right now with our systems and
please believe me when I say I understand your frustration completely.
We are doing all we can at our level .
So, be that as it may………..
Whenever you wish to sign up or cancel your unlimited plan,
You must send me an email at xxxxxxx@brisnet.com.
I will always send you a confirming email back.
Let me know if you have any further questions.
My direct phone number is listed below.


So....she was nice about it. And did say they recognize the problem, and are working on it. I get that response from my cable company, too.

Time to get it together, Bris..like 5 years ago.

Anyone else have problems with Bris?
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Old 02-27-2016, 03:25 AM   #13
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HWO/PACE RESULTS--SQUADOOSH

***Nothing again, today. After 2 days of testing...nada. Although I'm wavering in my confidence, a little...I'll give the method it's proper test.

When I'm certain it isn't a winner--and tweaking won't help---I'll simply stop the testing.
And if you know me--you should know what comes after that---ANOTHER METHOD TO TEST. The search for the profitable automatic bet--that's where I get my kicks. Believe me, those "automatic bets" have been found, by folks not even HALF as intelligent as I am.
The thing is---you haven't heard about them--because they ain't tellin'.
And neither will I hahaha....so you better just keep looking in here--because when I do achieve my goal--you will never see me again.
LOL...just realized, you can't see me now.

No more time for idle chit-chat..there's work to be done. If anyone would like to contribute anything, any ideas--test your own method--jump on up here.

-NCG
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Old 02-27-2016, 04:18 AM   #14
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LONE SPEED RESULTS

**Lone Speed entered today:
CTX
-RACE 1 TENACIOUS CHILD 6-1 2ND @ 6-1

-RACE 3 SILVER WARLORD 5/2 XXX

-RACE 8 LOVE TO PROSPECT 2-1 $7.60 $4.00 $3.80

GGF
RACE 1 PROPHETINPARADISE 7/2 $5.80 $3.00 NO SHOW WAGERS

OAK
RACE 3 BURNT ORANGEDINI 12-1 XXX


---------------------------------------------------------------------

***Lately a few of us have been 'capping with
THEETOPTHREE software
these are my plays today @ Delta
I only chose Delta because someone
said NOTHING WORKS AT DELTA

1ST - YES ITS BETTS --2ND
6TH - LUKES BAD BOY --WON
7TH - TOUGH JEANS--WON
8TH - - - -- EX & TRI BOX HIT THE EXACTA
9TH - OUR LADY ALLIE --WON


all short prices-- wasn't a profit--just went with the blatantly obvious picks--now, apply some handicapping, and how hard would it be to be profitable?
I'm going to refine this a little...that takes time and testing, but those with the program should be doing that already.

--Look for "situational" plays---Top rated-top 2 speed- @ 6-1ML, something along those lines. MOST IMPORTANT--keep a log of winners, and the categories they were on top. A pattern will soon develop--you may notice horses with a big speed pts gap---at least 5, and dropping in class can get good prices.

-NCG
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Old 02-27-2016, 11:49 AM   #15
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Special Santa Anita

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:SANTA ANITA~Race-5 -->> 7-2-6-11


Good morning P.A. nation...hope your day is going well. I started to make the $1 lotto super @ Chuck--until I remembered they were a$$holes that don't give a damn about their horseracing customers--so went with the friendly confines of fan-friendly Santa Anita. Go on and support Santa Anita and put a buck down on that super--When it hits...I don't want to be dancing in the street alone.

I focosed on a method @ Santa Anita today---just want to help out our friends here, with some sweet longshot plays. There's a nice straight pick-6 in there also:

--SANTA ANITA

2ND YANA 12-1

3RD JOURNEY BY SEA 5/2

4TH GAVINATION 12-1

5TH CRAZY AL 15-1

6TH ALERT BAY 4-1

7TH CARLOT COWBOY 8-1

8TH EMOTIONAL DRIVE 30-1

9TH PROUD N READY 8-1


have a good day

-NCG
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