Toteboard Favorite

[soflant]

As an example if the morning line odds on the toteboard favorite is 3-1 and the closing odds near post time are 7-5 can we tell if the odds drop is caused by the barn money or the public? Thanks in advance.

[green80]

Originally Posted by soflant

As an example if the morning line odds on the toteboard favorite is 3-1 and the closing odds near post time are 7-5 can we tell if the odds drop is caused by the barn money or the public? Thanks in advance.

hard to tell but if you watch the tote and large amounts come in on the horse at once that's usually an indicator of a large bet while smaller bets from the public seem to come in over time. Sometimes a large bet that shows up on the tote will be followed by public money. In my opinion barn money is way overrated, they usually always think they are going to win.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by soflant

As an example if the morning line odds on the toteboard favorite is 3-1 and the closing odds near post time are 7-5 can we tell if the odds drop is caused by the barn money or the public? Thanks in advance.

Most of the time it's just that the morning line wasn't that good so the money coming in on the horse is a better indication of it's chances than the ML.

Barn money often comes in early, anyway. People in the backstretch are talking about a horse, for instance, that's training well for it's return or it's debut. They might be working during the races so they are actually in the backstretch, so they put the bets in early.

Years ago when bookies took a lot of horse action, sometimes they would lay off large bets rather than risk losing, say, a $10,000 win bet, so you would see that $10,000 in the pool on the first flash.

[sharkey11]

Originally Posted by soflant

As an example if the morning line odds on the toteboard favorite is 3-1 and the closing odds near post time are 7-5 can we tell if the odds drop is caused by the barn money or the public? Thanks in advance.

heres a way to do some of what your asking about the barn money you will have to do some work for it .for example i knew of some connections that bet and the M.O. was a 200 bet across the board now today it might be a duce to win place odds provided . just an example an rember they are not always right.most like large odds on there money!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by soflant

As an example if the morning line odds on the toteboard favorite is 3-1 and the closing odds near post time are 7-5 can we tell if the odds drop is caused by the barn money or the public? Thanks in advance.

to seriously start to understand some of the toteboard odds, whenever possible take a look at the Daily Double will pays for the race in question.

simple way to approach it is "Odds Rankings"

Favorite = is the lowest amount and ranked #1 , and so on.

Compare that to the Morning Line. are any of them 'out of order'

I took a screen cap to have a visual. Whatever race just came up at Finger Lakes. took more Will Pay than ...

So you would be ready for that to play out on the Tote Board as well. Whether early or late, you'd look for that $ to show.

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[zerosky]

There's a fair amount of literature on so called 'Insider' plays on the horses.
This paper examines the effect of herding on some of these plays with bookmakers, but there are many more.

https://econ.biu.ac.il/sites/econ/fi...rs/2011-08.pdf

[jay68802]

First thing is to know what trainers and owners bet. Petter Miller and Karl Broberg are two examples of trainers that bet.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

First thing is to know what trainers and owners bet. Petter Miller and Karl Broberg are two examples of trainers that bet.

good point.

certain sporting owners or trainers, and maybe you don't know if the horse is good or not.

Maybe he's a FTS, or first off a claim or 2nd off a sluggish race from a big layoff , and he's 9/1 maybe gonna be around 6/1 or so,

maybe you'll throw him on a ticket

If you glance up and see a horse go from 9/1 to 9/2 in a flash, it's not a bad sign.

[soflant]

Thank you for such an excellent reply Robert .

[soflant]

Originally Posted by jay68802

First thing is to know what trainers and owners bet. Petter Miller and Karl Broberg are two examples of trainers that bet.

BTW Do you happen to know of other trainers that like to bet for example at Gulfstream Park or the other major tracks? If not, where can I obtain information on which trainers do bet. Thanks so much in advance.