R7 Belmont 6/5/22

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

If you're looking to play any kind of late horizontal at Belmont today, this little gem is one you'll need to figure out.

6F Clm$16Kn2l for Fillies & Mares

Looks to be a big field of 13 that will go to the gate.

Candy Monet: Getting class relief and looks as good as any in here. Not a good start to the meet for trainer Patrick Quick, but recent bullet work in :35.1 makes this a must include.

Trinity Titoli: Likely the fastest horse in here. And in a race where there aren't many that like to pass horses she is intriguing. Lone win was gate to wire, but I'm on the fence with this one. Likely kick.

Classic Vinman: Interesting jockey change to Saez, and the last at 8.5F is a head scratcher for sure. Don't see a race that makes her competitive in here.

Appreciate: 1 for 52 lifetime. While she is always competitive, she simply doesn't win.

Tami's Orchid: Interesting bomber that would likely prefer an off track. Fast track dirt race 2 back wasn't bad as she closed into a pedestrian pace. Must watch on the tote.

Bella Domenica: Has won here at this distance with Irad on board. Have to include.

Handle the Truth: Has never been less than 20/1 in her last 9 outings. Race 3 back wasn't bad, but would likely need a complete pace meltdown in a race that doesn't look to have the necessary speed for her to close into.

The Honorable Ruth: Looks to be a significant change in form after the barn change in January. Would also likely want an off track. Pass.

Gris Tormenta: LA shipper didn't much care for BEL in her first outing at this place. Gets some big time class relief. Numbers aren't great so gonna pass and let her beat me.

Crosstown Girl: Got a perfect set up in a 6 horse field last out. 1:15.1 final time is hard to look past. Pass.

Queentigua: 1 for 34 lifetime. Hasn't finished within 10 lengths of the winner in her last 5. Pass.

Love That Face: Been noticing this trainer this meet that has had some solid entries, but hasn't hit the winner's circle just yet. This is a must include horse for me.

Hideout: Finger Lakes shipper flashed early speed in Belmont debut, but quit rather quickly. Surface change makes sense, but even her best thus far was gate to wire and there are faster than her in here. Pass.

in horizontals
WPS at 15/1 or more

[geroge.burns99]

Good to someone that still reads and analyzes PP's...


Using a Power Rating that I created from HTR significant factors

I get this.....


6-2-10-1

Good Luck!!

Mike

[geroge.burns99]

After posting my pix , I like to read the PP's...

#6 ...horse is 1 for 18 with same trainer , do you really expect her to win???

#2... speed of race....its hers till someone catches her....

pace 22.5.....45.6


#10 looks in form but won maiden last out.....contender

#1...interesting horse.....hasn't had a decent dirt race on dry track


going with 1-2-10

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

After posting my pix , I like to read the PP's...

#6 ...horse is 1 for 18 with same trainer , do you really expect her to win???

#2... speed of race....its hers till someone catches her....

pace 22.5.....45.6


#10 looks in form but won maiden last out.....contender

#1...interesting horse.....hasn't had a decent dirt race on dry track


going with 1-2-10

is my definite concern. They started her out in a $85KMdn at Toga. She looks to be the fastest, but has been a money burner in her last 2 while folding late. I'm sure I'll end up including as this is probably the weakest field she has ever faced.

[Maximillion]

The 2 that interest me are theHonorable Ruth and the Gris Tormenta
Wonder who will actually end up being favored here.

[Bustin Stones]

My focus is on 6 Bella Domenica and 10 Crosstown Girl.

[BlueChip@DRF]

box ex/tri/sup

[Jeff P]

Interesting race.

I think the horse #1 CANDY MONET is fast enough to win.

And she gets a good longshot rider today.

A look at rider stats (link to text file here) for RODRIGUEZ CASTRO LUIS A from 10-01-2021 through yesterday 06-04-2022 reveals some interesting info:

                   1.00
Category   Win%     Roi
--------  -----  ------
Overall    8.66  1.1976
Sprint     5.41  0.6976
Route     13.21  1.8958
Rail       4.65  0.2279

If she had a rider today with average stats I'd consider betting at roughly 3-1 or higher.

But today's dist is 6f AND she drew the rail.

Still interested, but I'm going to want to see what she looks like during pre-race warmups.

Provided she looks fit and ready, and that's never a given, I'd consider betting at somewhere around 6-1 or higher. A little lower than that if I think she looks exceptional. (And a hard pass if I think she looks subpar today.)

The conflicting info: good horse, overlooked rider who has ridden well in routes, but not so much sprints, and not so much when he draws the rail... in a sprint race where both horse and rider draw the rail:

Like I said, interesting race.


-jp

.

[Tom]

Looks like less of a pork product than most of these embarrassing starters/

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Tom

Looks like less of a pork product than most of these embarrassing starters/

Nicely done.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Tom

Looks like less of a pork product than most of these embarrassing starters/

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

The 2 that interest me are theHonorable Ruth and the Gris Tormenta
Wonder who will actually end up being favored here.

Nice, almost the exacta!

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by Tom

Looks like less of a pork product than most of these embarrassing starters/

Originally Posted by Maximillion

The 2 that interest me are theHonorable Ruth and the Gris Tormenta
Wonder who will actually end up being favored here.

Nice work guys!

For me, looking at rider stats helped avoid a bad bet. Final odds for #1 were 5-2 (lukewarm favorite.)


-jp

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