Here's my take. Mainly off the TFUS PPs and a breeze through this thread and the public handicappers. I'm going to revisit the latter.
We the People
Fading a bit as the ML favorite to hope for more value. Can certainly contend here on the lead, in fifth race, with all the upside, after winning three, handily. Not dismissing, but others more attractive.
Skippylongstocking
I liked a bit of this one in the Preakness. Joseph does well at Belmont. Not so well with stakes runners on this turnaround time, but good otherwise. Improving figs, despite the meh Preakness finish. Peaking at the right time? Has won on the lead and from 4th, and projects to be third early, with a notably strong late pace rating for that position. Still like this one. Big emphasis at 20/1, and still playable at 5th choice or so.
Nest
Oaks performance and a totally plausible step forward puts her right in the mix, but her speed and pace figs just don’t stack up here. Others have upside, too. Respect Pletcher at Belmont and not dismissing this runner, but looking elsewhere for clever mid-priced ideas.
Rich Strike
Won the Derby on a blazing hot pace—with the third highest TFUS speed fig in this field. Doesn’t project late pace much better than the other closers here. Way against at a short price. A “flier underneath” at best, which I couldn’t even stomach for the Derby, even after giving him a good look. At, say, 5/1, he can beat me in the bottom of the super.
Creative Minister
I liked this one in the Preakness, too, and it hit the board with a nice fig at 10-1. That TFUS 123 fig bests these by 3. Fourth choice ML at 6-1 seems more than fair (and probably not what we’ll get). Projects to track in second early, but won twice from even further back (from 7th two back). McPeek not the Pope of Belmont, but a solid stakes record. He’s also O.K. with the turnaround time, although not with stakes contenders. Andy Serling is on him.
Mo Donegal
Oh, Mo. Liked him in the Derby, and he ran an O.K. 5th. But do you want a closer here? Field is certainly smaller than the last one, and the figs stack up, and this race amounts to class relief from the Derby, after credibly winning the Wood with a good fig—from 8th (last), where it projects to be today. Todd and Irad. I have to use this one, but not with both fists at a short price.
Golden Glider
Managed to beat a field of five at 4/5 after breaking maiden in first race, but hasn’t mustered an impressive finish in four stakes since. Even regressed a bit in the Peter Pan, despite finishing second at 9/2 (more than 10 lengths behind today’s ML favorite). I can see this one pulling it all together for a good one, but not the Belmont Stakes.
Barber Road
Figs don’t stack up much better than the
, and I wasn’t interested in this guy in the Derby. But running 6th out of 20 in that one ain’t bad, a nice step forward from pretty steady progression. Seems odd to say “class relief,” but that’s what it looks like on paper. If you’re comfortable with his propensity for the distance, 10/1 seems pretty reasonable. I’ll put this one in the mix at sixth choice.
Top tier:
,
,
Second tier:
,
Third tier:
Toss
,
That said, in a modest-sized field in a big race, an “all” slot is not out of the question (although I don't think I've ever done that).
