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06-08-2019, 03:14 PM
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#31
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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I guess pay day advances can be ok in some cases, but only if it is sort term and not allowed to linger on and on.
Do they charge high interest for those? (I'm guessing yes)
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-16-2019, 03:24 PM
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#32
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
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Updated to include the June 2019 jobs report:
Trump's first 30 months in office: 196K
Trump's trailing 12 months: 192k
Interestingly enough, there's no inflection in job creation under Trump (please note these numbers were produced by Trump's Labor Dept). One could argue as the labor pool has dwindled(s), it's harder for the monthly jobs number to inflect higher, but just extrapolating Obama's numbers forward would have theoretically produced the same phenomena (i.e., late-cycle labor tightness).
It's important to note that wage gains have picked up under Trump. Wages were trending around/maybe a smidge north of 2% under Obama. Now that number is around 3%. As the labor market tightens, wages go up.
In rough terms, the deficit will be $300 billion higher this fiscal year (ending 9/30/19) vs. Obama's last fiscal year in office, approximately $120 billion of that increase is due to higher defense spending.
Intermediate to longer term GDP growth is a function of population growth (labor force) and productivity. The US economy is constrained on both fronts, in my opinion.
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07-16-2019, 03:34 PM
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#33
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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What is the value of those jobs, though?
A lot of manufacturing jobs that Obama gave up on are now back.
Jobs or McJobs?
Ironically, as I typed this, I just got nailed on the wire at FL - my horse was "CHUMP CHANGE!"
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 07-16-2019 at 03:36 PM.
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07-16-2019, 04:00 PM
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#34
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
What is the value of those jobs, though?
A lot of manufacturing jobs that Obama gave up on are now back.
Jobs or McJobs?
Ironically, as I typed this, I just got nailed on the wire at FL - my horse was "CHUMP CHANGE!"
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Good question - Manufacturing job creation has certainly been more stout under Trump than Obama (see link). However, median weekly earnings for full-time employees started to inflect higher in 3Q14 and the trend has carried forward under Trump, but it hasn't inflected higher (upward trend has basically held).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP
Here's something interesting: the vast majority of manufacturing job growth under Trump has been in areas that were already adding manufacturing jobs pre-2017. I guess that makes sense.
Top five counties for manufacturing job creation in 2017/2018 (1): Harris County, Texas (no surprise); Storey County, Nevada (surprised me -- think Telsa); Santa Clara, Cali (surprised me); Alameda County, Cali (surprised me); Maricopa, AZ (surprised me). Unfortunately, left behind towns in Ohio and Penn didn't make even the top ten counties on the list (one Michigan county did, though).
1) Source: Economic Innovation Group
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07-16-2019, 04:10 PM
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#35
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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TY 
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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09-06-2019, 01:05 PM
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#36
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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According to today's release, the economy added 130k jobs in August. The three-month new jobs average was 156k/month. Year-over-year hourly wages rose 3.2%.
Monthly job creation has been lighter under Trump than during Obama's last four years in office (see numbers posted above). However, wage gains have picked up to around 3%, up from the 2%ish range during Obama's last term. In my view, this is classic late-cycle economics, i.e., as labor becomes more scarce, firms raise wages to attract employees.
On the GDP front, it appears that the economy has now settled back into trend line growth of around 2%, maybe 2.5%, restrained by productivity and labor force growth.
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09-13-2019, 09:32 PM
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#37
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Librocubicularist
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Ohio
Posts: 10,466
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barahona44
Not allowing CC's to advertise would be a violation of First Amendment rights.Y'know, the Constitution.
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Then how is it that tobacco and booze are not allowed to advertise, at least not on TV? Just asking.
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Sapere aude
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09-14-2019, 10:06 AM
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#38
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Actor
Then how is it that tobacco and booze are not allowed to advertise, at least not on TV? Just asking.
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The government may regulate commercial speech, if certain criteria are met.
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