what do y'all think Rich Strike is going to do?

[Robert Fischer]

I'm contrarian and independent and often biased ( wrong ).

for the Kentucky Derby I thought Epicenter, Crown Pride, Messier ran pretty well.

Next tier I have Zandon, Cyberknife, Taiba, and maybe a horse or two I can't think of. Although I like Zandon MUCH better than Cyberknife, and maybe Zandon had some adversity I missed, those are my 2nd-tier.

Zozos is worth noting on some of his models that actually stand out among the top tier, while being a horse that I strongly dislike and feel his speed metrics are currently a 'trap' is currently not a true Graded Stakes type. He has a good trainer. While I currently view him as a 1 turn horse, or a horse that needs a dream setup to win a weak graded stakes with a well-suited field, his status is fluid, and at least the underlying talent and fitness is above most of the crop.

Mo Donegal, Barber Road, Ritch Strike all got dream setups. Rich Strike got the best trip of the three, and a much better ride than the three.
Barber Road was a bit wide. Mo Donegal had some slight traffic issues.

None of these three impressed me with their Derby races,. If I only watched the Kentucky Derby, I couldn't tell you if Rich, Barber, Mo, Simp, Tawny were even Graded Stakes level or not.

I'd have to look at prior form to find some sort of reliable level for each.

I missed the boat on the Kentucky Derby. There weren't a ton of people who felt the UAE Derby was a talented race. I was set to ( and did ) use Summer is Tomorrow on some small/medium wagers w/ some wagers like the OAKS->Derby double. Felt a little unsure of my own opinion, given the dismissal of the race in leading weeks. By the time the Derby rolled around, the cream of the handicapping crop were acknowledging that Summer is Tomorrow was likely setting a legit pace.
A great player, or a great team, who considered the UAE a legitimate race, and whom respected Summer is Tomorow enough to be a legitimate pace presence would have considered a pace collapse scenario on some minimum base level.
My error was not doing anything in regards to a pace collapse. While Zandon was a clear 'A', and a rockhard bettwice-KEY in such a scenario, and Mo Donegal was a solid 'B' in such a scenario, by definition 'pace collapses' include closers, even belated rallies from closers that aren't always finishing rank and file according to Odds and Form.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

by definition 'pace collapses' include closers, even belated rallies from closers that aren't always finishing rank and file according to Odds and Form.

Good post. Since speed is the "universal bias," I constantly remind myself that melt-downs mean chaos. Thus by definition, it can be unwise to simply settle for the most obvious closer. In the long run, when playing for pace collapse, I'm sure greater value exists in including-or even focusing on-non-speeds held at higher odds.

[dilanesp]

And he turned back into a pumpkin.

[westernmassbob]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

And he turned back into a pumpkin

100% accurate . Didn’t gain an ounce of ground in the stretch. Nothing ! Wow ! The biggest derby fluke win in the history of the race. Pace or no pace to not gain any ground at all in the stretch makes zero sense . That horses value just plummeted way down .

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

And he turned back into a pumpkin.

He caught lightning in the bottle on Derby day. The moderate pace of the Belmont was his undoing. He is nothing more than a plodder who needs everything to fall into place to win.

[JustRalph]

Don’t forget Monarcho’s

Fastest time since Secretariat. Never won again

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Don’t forget Monarcho’s

Fastest time since Secretariat. Never won again

In defense of Monarchos, he at least looked good in the Derby preps-he won the Florida Derby impressively over a decent field, and ran second to Congaree, an underrated racehorse, in the Wood. Rich Strike seems strictly a one hit wonder.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

And he turned back into a pumpkin.

While he is very likely no where near that figure he got in the Derby I dont think this race set up for him particularly well and he looked terrible in the parade.

Late run closers stretching out is just not what I would aim for.

If he is not retired I would target mile to 1 1/8th races at tracks that give him a a chance (not monmouth or GP but rather CD or even 1 turn Belmont.

[Someday Silent]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

He caught lightning in the bottle on Derby day. The moderate pace of the Belmont was his undoing. He is nothing more than a plodder who needs everything to fall into place to win.

Rich Strike might need to give up his family jewels to be a better race horse (not likely that'll ever actually happen). He was all wound up in the Belmont post parade, and of course we all remember what he did after the Derby.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i think he's going to finish behind MO DONEGAL.

at least i got this part right!

[lamboguy]

RICH STRIKE turned out to be a big underlay, i really can't blame the horse or the rider though. the rider was acting and doing what he was told to do. there is no way this horse should have found himself wide on any turn. they should not have panicked to make the horse run closer to the leaders during the race. the horse needed to ride the rail the whole way around and then make his run, whatever it might be, halfway down the lane.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

RICH STRIKE turned out to be a big underlay, i really can't blame the horse or the rider though. the rider was acting and doing what he was told to do. there is no way this horse should have found himself wide on any turn. they should not have panicked to make the horse run closer to the leaders during the race. the horse needed to ride the rail the whole way around and then make his run, whatever it might be, halfway down the lane.

seems like it was more a product of the pace than anything intentional. I bet if it was Derby pace he would have been about the same distance behind.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

seems like it was more a product of the pace than anything intentional. I bet if it was Derby pace he would have been about the same distance behind.

i don't know how many people have ever been to Belmont Park. for those that haven't, when you first see the place, the size and all the components to it are all intimidating. the place is as professional as it gets, its the MAJOR LEAGUE of all horse tracks in the world. there is no one that is going to walk in that place and win the biggest race for 3-year-olds without having a good plan. whoever developed the itinerary for RICH STRIKE was less than an amateur. he didn't look that great once he was on the track too. and that's all i have to say about that subject.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i don't know how many people have ever been to Belmont Park. for those that haven't, when you first see the place, the size and all the components to it are all intimidating. the place is as professional as it gets, its the MAJOR LEAGUE of all horse tracks in the world. there is no one that is going to walk in that place and win the biggest race for 3-year-olds without having a good plan. whoever developed the itinerary for RICH STRIKE was less than an amateur. he didn't look that great once he was on the track too. and that's all i have to say about that subject.

I didnt realize the horses connections had a bad plan when they hit the ole big time of New York and Belmont Park. I need to keep up more with current events.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Since speed is the "universal bias," I constantly remind myself that melt-downs mean chaos. Thus by definition, it can be unwise to simply settle for the most obvious closer. In the long run, when playing for pace collapse, I'm sure greater value exists in including-or even focusing on-non-speeds held at higher odds.

if you're good enough to find meltdowns consistently, I at least would lobby for some base coverage of ALL the priced closers, with perhaps extra emphasis on some 'key' best form closers layered.

May or may not be wise, but one 2022 Derby, or a few standard pace collapses in dime super full-field races would put you ahead.

Rich Strike remains a great story who capitalized on his golden ticket.