Final 3/8

[classhandicapper]

When people are evaluating closing times, they are in part looking to downgrade front runner/presser types that have been coming home slowly. The assumption being that stretching out will make it difficult for them to repeat their figures/performances going longer.

What about races that had a lot of speed in them, where some horses that can typically sit off the pace and finish well got drawn into the fast pace and then finished slowly (as you’d expect)?

In the Florida Derby for example, everyone crawled home, but if you look at those horses, a couple have successfully sat behind slower paces previously and finished OK. I don’t think it’s necessarily true that they will be part of the Derby pace regardless of whether it’s fast or average. With a more patient ride, a couple may run OK stretching out “IF” they are good enough. If they wind up losing it could be more about how good they relative to some others and not the 10F.

[Robert Fischer]

have to adjust

CJ and TimeformUS do fascinating adjusted final times.

other significant models include things like race shape, flow, pace...

wary when one race has two or three of the fastest, but sometimes you know those two are legitimate Grade 1 3yos and that trades off against any worry of inflation/illusion...

be very wary if 3 mediocre closers all have the fastest times, or if 3 speeds that you do rate highly all have the slowest times.

When in doubt dig deeper and look for another race possibly more representative

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

have to adjust

CJ and TimeformUS do fascinating adjusted final times.

other significant models include things like race shape, flow, pace...

wary when one race has two or three of the fastest, but sometimes you know those two are legitimate Grade 1 3yos and that trades off against any worry of inflation/illusion...

be very wary if 3 mediocre closers all have the fastest times, or if 3 speeds that you do rate highly all have the slowest times.

When in doubt dig deeper and look for another race possibly more representative

How are you going to grade the Santa Anita Derby?

Slow Down Andy ran down and beat Messier. He was 6th in the Risen Star and zero factor. Taiba has ran 2 brilliant races obviously, but who has he beat? I think I have to include both, but damn that is a tough race to quantify.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

How are you going to grade the Santa Anita Derby?

Slow Down Andy ran down and beat Messier. He was 6th in the Risen Star and zero factor. Taiba has ran 2 brilliant races obviously, but who has he beat? I think I have to include both, but damn that is a tough race to quantify.

I rate Messier and Taiba highly.

The Santa Anita Derby itself wasn't much of a race.

However, at least we got to see Messier run again, and we got to learn that Taiba can run ten furlongs.

Slow Down Andy is just a cut below the Kentucky Derby contenders. His Risen Star was OK.

the Los Al Futurity was fine.

[NativeDancer]

Hi, There are a couple places that post final closing quarters or 3/8 and discussion of them.
One is see Wave3.com -- this is by the author of the Final Fractions theory.
The writer there notes that "note: locals say Arkansas Derby horses always tend to finish fast because of a slight slope in the stretch."
Another place is @DerbyContenders
Florida Derby was glacially slow!! Arkansas Derby was unusually slow. The other preps -- Blue Grass, Santa Anita D, Wood -- were OK.

[NativeDancer]

Oh, forgot this website is really good for sharper observations of horses' performances and so on.
They have posted story on final fractions. Enjoy!
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ons_Theory_123

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

How are you going to grade the Santa Anita Derby?

Slow Down Andy ran down and beat Messier. He was 6th in the Risen Star and zero factor. Taiba has ran 2 brilliant races obviously, but who has he beat? I think I have to include both, but damn that is a tough race to quantify.

That's the group I am having the toughest time with.

The only other horse of significance to come out of that CA group besides Slow Down Andy (who got killed in the Risen Star) was Doppelganger who ran a strange race in the Arkansas Derby while being well beaten. He dropped back like he was done and then finished better.

I downgraded Messier's performance in the Robert Lewis on it being bias aided.

IMO, Happy Jack who he and Taiba beat is nothing.

They are certainly fast enough to say they are contenders, but qualitatively imo they are a bit of a question mark. I kind of feel that if Messier takes some heat going 10F a few horses are going to catch him unless the track is carrying horses given Slow Down Andy and Taiba were both able to run him down going shorter. Taiba looked good, but it's a lot to ask without a decent price (he's a surprising 12-1 off shore now)

[Fightingirish51195]

I went through all of Stanley’s derby indicators and made a spreadsheet with who earned points for each one. And sorted it by total points.

For final fractions (which is a requirement for multiple indicators) I used trakus. It is somewhat subjective who fits under this. I did the best I could.

To my best judgement, 4 horses qualify under indicator number 1 (final fractions)

Yes some of the spellings on the names are butchered. I was typing fast and didn’t edit

https://www.americanturf.com/downloa...ripleCrown.pdf

Here is Stanley’s work. It’s free content

[Fightingirish51195]

Messier is tough whether he qualifies on final fractions, I perosnally think he does

[cj]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

How are you going to grade the Santa Anita Derby?

Slow Down Andy ran down and beat Messier. He was 6th in the Risen Star and zero factor. Taiba has ran 2 brilliant races obviously, but who has he beat? I think I have to include both, but damn that is a tough race to quantify.

The Los Al races are irrelevant IMO. They almost always are. They may as well race on the moon. I toss everything from there, good and bad, and it has served me well at the windows.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Messier def has Authentic and Medina Spirit vibes.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Messier def has Authentic and Medina Spirit vibes.

Heavily agree

[Gerard02]

Thanks for the spreadsheet, Fighting. I have Stan’s book as well. Over the years, I’ve noticed that the horses that for the first three indicators hit the board at the derby. I wouldn’t take that spreadsheet religiously when it comes to the Superfecta. There’s always one horse who grabs fourth. I’m trying a tweak to my wager, this year. I’ll take the top horses on the sheet and wheel them with the field.this will cover the 4 slot. Fingers crossed. Good luck!

[Gerard02]

Do you happen to have the final 1/4’s of the horses?

[Gerard02]

I may be wrong, really, but I believe Zozos has a RAN line. That would qualify him on indicators 1 and 2. Correct me, if I’m wrong.