starting to plan for Oaks/Derby card

[Gerard02]

Originally Posted by garywpt

just watched a video that said Taiba missed his workout and will only workout 1 time before the Derby maybe this coming Friday. all other horses (except Tawny Port which just raced and Happy Jack) are working. I am not a trainer but that does not sound good

That might be a problem. Then again, it may not be.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jocko699

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...in_the_mix_123

Thanks !!


Wow.

You know, there are rumors that Early Voting is going to sit this one out. It's kind of a 'luxury' scratch with big owners that can afford to do so. It worked with Cloud Computing for the same owners to win the Preakness...

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

That might be a problem. Then again, it may not be.

One thing about that. - Messier has more foundation, and he did rest/sit-out that one prep before the S.A.D. (sort of the same time team-Baffert was figuring out the Yakteen/Brissett stuff), so Messier, like him or not is kind of peaking in a traditional form cycle, and he came out of the Santa Anita Derby thriving.

Doesn't mean that Taiba isn't thriving... for all we know they have some heavily planned approach that depends on things like weather and medical/feed program to peak on Derby day.

Taiba's breeze and appearance in the breeze will tell the real story.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

One thing about that. - Messier has more foundation, and he did rest/sit-out that one prep before the S.A.D. (sort of the same time team-Baffert was figuring out the Yakteen/Brissett stuff), so Messier, like him or not is kind of peaking in a traditional form cycle, and he came out of the Santa Anita Derby thriving.

Doesn't mean that Taiba isn't thriving... for all we know they have some heavily planned approach that depends on things like weather and medical/feed program to peak on Derby day.

Taiba's breeze and appearance in the breeze will tell the real story.

This scenario is reminding me a lot of Rock Your World - Medina Spirit. I know that Messier and Taiba moved to another barn, but I am still wondering if those two still get visits from Baffert and his staff....

[Fightingirish51195]

I don’t understand the charg it hype over seen. Horse is slow compared to his peers in here

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

This scenario is reminding me a lot of Rock Your World - Medina Spirit. I know that Messier and Taiba moved to another barn, but I am still wondering if those two still get visits from Baffert and his staff....

short answer - yes.

if you have time watch this video. I consider the owners as far as the broader 'connections' model of handicapping. For example a 'Hronis' horse with John Sadler is often receiving the highest care and feed.

Taiba's Owner; Amr Zedan reminds me vaguely of Chad Brown in his emphasis on 'quality' and fundamentals.

He is enthusiastic in Polo (the sport), and he has brought the facilities and safety and proper facilities training horses... from the UK and Euro, Argentina, etc... Polo templates that he's brought to Dubai and Saudi.

TLDR he will do his part to provide the best for Taiba

YouTube

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I don’t understand the charge it hype over seen. Horse is slow compared to his peers in here

expensive, good flesh, raw talent, Pletcher, flashed some good works.

Has to move way forward to even contend.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

expensive, good flesh, raw talent, Pletcher, flashed some good works.

Has to move way forward to even contend.

Exactly!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Exactly!

I want to see his final works. See how the multis and money lead into the Derby, but as of now, there are several legit talented horses in top form for me to make room for him.

Always keep an open mind. White Abarrio dusted him when it was to respond. And that track and situation played to White Abarrio's strengths as well.
Charge It got out-moved. But he finished OK, and his finish was darkened a little bit because he lugged in behind White Abarrio rather than running in the clear.

..........

If you guys watch some of the morning works;

they are on youtube and xbtv and others

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

[Immortal6]

I think to make a big score you’re gonna have to focus on the undercard and not so much on the derby/oaks. Playing the 2 day pick5/6 or whatever they offer is one way to go. Without seeing how they shape the card it’s hard to come up with any meaningful discussion as how to form big pick 3/4s singling in 2-3 of the legs etc. when the full cards and entries come out and I have time I’d love to bounce ideas around on nailing some $10 pick 3s/ $5 pick4s etc. You’re also right about what happened to this place…Twitter is where I predominantly spend my time interacting with horse racing conversations. Regardless, good luck this year…thinking it’s a year to look outside of California and the early speed times to find that “Mine that Bird” type to win it.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Immortal6

I think to make a big score you’re gonna have to focus on the undercard and not so much on the derby/oaks. Playing the 2 day pick5/6 or whatever they offer is one way to go. Without seeing how they shape the card it’s hard to come up with any meaningful discussion as how to form big pick 3/4s singling in 2-3 of the legs etc. when the full cards and entries come out and I have time I’d love to bounce ideas around on nailing some $10 pick 3s/ $5 pick4s etc. You’re also right about what happened to this place…Twitter is where I predominantly spend my time interacting with horse racing conversations. Regardless, good luck this year…thinking it’s a year to look outside of California and the early speed times to find that “Mine that Bird” type to win it.

Awesome. I have you as @Dyl_Gill1990 on Twitter (i'm @jason_kassa)

Agreed on the undercard. Hopefully chaos and at least a small slice of rare fan money injected into the pools where there could be an opportunity.

right now I'm handicapping a few individual probable entrants for the undercard, but more bits and pieces of info than having all the work done

having so much fun and detail with the Derby and Oaks, that I almost have to take a deep breath and treat them like a regular stakes race for a day, to organize more of the undercard stuff and wagering menu.


@ClownsTriple 'The Triple Clowns' are going to have me record a segment Wednesday May 4th (maybe shared Thursday? twitter, youtube, etc...)
Will share some big opinions there as well.

btw congrats to the Triple Clowns and sponsors for reaching '1,000' Youtube Subscribers;

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 04-30-2022 at 09:19 PM.

[Michael]

Pretty sure I'll be playing a superfecta ticket in the derby just to fish for a large score.

Here's the betting menu
https://www.churchilldowns.com/racin...ard/post-times

Let the games begin!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Michael

Pretty sure I'll be playing a superfecta ticket in the derby just to fish for a large score.

Here's the betting menu
https://www.churchilldowns.com/racin...ard/post-times

Let the games begin!

Thanks Michael.

It's a $1 min for Supers, but if you have huge opinions and/or rock-solid 'key' horses to anchor around, they pay pretty good sometimes.

interesting still 50cent min Tri, and they feature a 20c 'mandatory payout' P6 ( will have to check for what the carryover is )

and all systems are go for a 'Triple Clowns' podcast episode recording Wed, probably out Thurs?
- I have some decent info and some unique opinions brewing. food for thought


also, tweet has some graphics for some of the featured wagers;

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-02-2022 at 08:57 PM.

[Fred Mertz]

I'll consider the Oaks Derby Double $2 bet; select 3 in each Classic $18 total.


I love having a live Double ticket, until the 2d race fails.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Fred Mertz

I love having a live Double ticket, until the 2d race fails.

I've never had the privilege (or stress) of having a live Double. My doubles usually die by the far turn.