In R1, #1 came away from the gate slowly, hopped in the air after coming away from the gate, nearly threw the rider, and spotted the field about 9 lengths before settling into a normal stride.
You almost never see horses win a race after giving a field that much of a head start.
But --
Imo, after four races, late runners appear to be at an advantage. Early runners appear to be at a disadvantage.
Based on my assessment of late bias if I had to come up with a 'number' for lengths compromised by the bad start --
I'd take take the 9 or so lengths the horse spotted the field before settling into a normal stride... use that as a starting point and divide by 2... about 4.5 lengths.
If I didn't think tonight's conditions were creating a late bias, my 'number' for lengths compromised by the bad start would be my estimate for actual distance the horse spotted the field before settling into a normal stride... about 9 lengths.
-jp
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Last edited by Jeff P; 10-15-2020 at 09:50 PM.
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