Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
Put'em up...
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As of about 7:30 pm Eastern on Wed 10-27-2020, this is what I see --
• States where I disagree with mainstream thinking and why --
PA -- Biden's comments about moving away from fossil fuels combined with last night's riots in Philly have likely created sentiment not reflected in the mainstream polls.
PA goes red.
NV -- Lots of folks in Vegas want to see conventions and a return to jobs. Imo, likely to happen sooner under Trump than Biden.
NV goes red.
AZ -- Maricopa County where the greater Phoenix area is located (population 4.5M) has managed their covid situation since reopening ahead of Memorial Day Weekend as well as any place in the country.
New Cases by Date of Illness Onset Chart Here. Imo, recent slight rise in new cases daily being caused by 'snowbirds' showing up to winter there (happens every fall.)
Imo, people in Maricopa County mostly living their lives and not really looking for a change. Imo, enough of the 4.5M who live in the greater Phoenix area will vote R to offset Tucson residents who will mostly vote D.
AZ goes red.
WI -- Imo, the riots in Kenosha likely left an impression not reflected in the mainstream polls.
People I've talked to in WI have told me they actively avoid telling anybody they are voting for Trump because doing so might result in doxxing, losing a job, or being targeted for violence.
On the other hand, WI's covid situation seems to be worsening
right now.
Imo, this likely has a lot of voters wanting to oust the incumbent.
For that reason I see WI going blue.
MI -- Here's a state where I think the mainstream polls could have it completely wrong.
This past summer, Detroit's Police Chief held press conferences adamantly opposed to defunding the police. And seemed to have the backing of the mayor's office (unlike Portland and Seattle.)
I think a lot of Detroit residents agree with their police chief and could vote for Trump's 'law and order' platform as opposed to Harris's 'they should be protesting' platform.
I also think manufacturing jobs could be a hot button issue for voters in this state.
Imo, edge to Trump on both issues. Enough that I can see
MI going red.
OH -- Another state where I think manufacturing jobs could be a hot button issue not reflected in the polls. Enough that I can see
OH going red.
WV -- Imo, Biden's comments about moving away from fossil fuels may have created sentiment not reflected in recent mainstream polls.
Imo, WV goes red.
• States where I don't have an opinion:
GA 16,
NC 15,
IA 6,
NE 5,
NM 5, and
ME 4.
51 electoral votes up for grabs.
It's an odd number so you can't split it right down the middle.
Award 26 to Biden and 25 to Trump, and my prediction as of right now would be:
Biden 254 -vs- Trump 284
Let's see how well or how poorly this ages.
-jp
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