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10-26-2020, 03:08 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Maps
Put'em up.
https://www.270towin.com
I'm bullish in the "New" battlegrounds for Biden but if District level polling is showing us anything its that PA, MI, and WI are already his.
NC: He's led the whole way.
IA: Has been blasted with Covid and perhaps farmers don't like welfare.
GA: These early vote numbers and senate internals make a flip possible.
FL: Is gonna Florida... pick a color.
TX: Exit polling has been bad for Trump on the early vote but I'll have him keeping it.
Either way there is no momentum on either side and the race is static right now... at Biden +9... so expect some weird shit to happen.
Last edited by elysiantraveller; 10-26-2020 at 03:17 PM.
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10-26-2020, 04:43 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,985
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A poll just came out this morning showing Trump up 2 in Pennsylvania. Guess what, it wasn't from a radical left college or a Marxist left wing media. If you follow the polls closely, only the leftist polls have Biden winning big, the neutral or Republican polls have the race tied or Trump with a slight lead in the battleground states.
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
Last edited by zico20; 10-26-2020 at 04:44 PM.
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10-26-2020, 06:22 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
A poll just came out this morning showing Trump up 2 in Pennsylvania. Guess what, it wasn't from a radical left college or a Marxist left wing media. If you follow the polls closely, only the leftist polls have Biden winning big, the neutral or Republican polls have the race tied or Trump with a slight lead in the battleground states.
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I'd be leery of one poll from a smaller firm going against the grain.
Better to toss it in the average and move on.
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10-26-2020, 07:12 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,398
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In agreement.....
Forecasting the US elections
The Economist is analysing polling, economic and demographic data to predict America’s elections in 2020
https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president
Electoral college. 350 Biden. 180 Trump.
Chance of winning
the electoral college Chance of winning
the most votes Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win)
Joe Biden
Democrat
around 19 in 20
or 96%
better than 19 in 20
or >99%
253-421
Donald Trump
Republican
around 1 in 20
or 4%
less than 1 in 20
or <1%
117-285
The probability of an electoral-college tie is <1%
__________________
The inmates have taken over the asylum. 
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10-26-2020, 07:38 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Houston , Tx.
Posts: 9,588
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They could tell you the moon's flat and you'd believe it if told by democrats.
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10-26-2020, 08:16 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett
They could tell you the moon's flat and you'd believe it if told by democrats.
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Put up a map if you have an opinion.
I think the fact we've shifted the Toss-ups from the blue wall of MI, PA, and WI to OH, FL, TX, IA, and GA is all the info you need to get a feel for the race.
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10-26-2020, 08:17 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hcap
In agreement.....
Forecasting the US elections
The Economist is analysing polling, economic and demographic data to predict America’s elections in 2020
https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president
Electoral college. 350 Biden. 180 Trump.
Chance of winning
the electoral college Chance of winning
the most votes Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win)
Joe Biden
Democrat
around 19 in 20
or 96%
better than 19 in 20
or >99%
253-421
Donald Trump
Republican
around 1 in 20
or 4%
less than 1 in 20
or <1%
117-285
The probability of an electoral-college tie is <1% |
I think you can toss GA, FL, OH, TX, and IA into a blender a spit out whatever results you'd like.
FL is lean Biden but its Florida.
The rest look like coin flips.
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10-26-2020, 08:19 PM
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#8
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,612
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You're putting a lot of faith into stuff that is just absolutely invisible at surface level.
This leads me to believe there is a TON of stuff going down behind the scenes during mail-in voting and also on election day.
But I've said this probably for over a year now...
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10-26-2020, 08:51 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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Just some wild and crazy predictions. Critics please post your own, and we'll see how you do.
Biden will win the popular vote by around 6 million votes (double Hillary's margin).
Biden will amass 318 electoral votes (no, didn't map it - just like the number).
The Senate will break 52-48 blue (counting the I's as blue).
Donald Trump will trash the government on his way out the way rock stars trash hotel rooms. He will not go back up that escalator quietly.
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10-26-2020, 09:01 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,985
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocala Mike
Just some wild and crazy predictions. Critics please post your own, and we'll see how you do.
Biden will win the popular vote by around 6 million votes (double Hillary's margin).
Biden will amass 318 electoral votes (no, didn't map it - just like the number).
The Senate will break 52-48 blue (counting the I's as blue).
Donald Trump will trash the government on his way out the way rock stars trash hotel rooms. He will not go back up that escalator quietly.
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Okay Mike, I will play along. Biden wins the popular vote by 4 million which will be around 3.4% roughly. Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Pennsylvania by 2% or less. Trump wins Texas by 6, Georgia by 3, Ohio by 4, Iowa by 5. Trump wins Maine's 2nd but loses Nebraska's 2nd. Trump barely loses Michigan and Wisconsin by under 2%.
FINAL TOTAL: TRUMP 279 BIDEN 259
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
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10-26-2020, 09:11 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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I bet on horses, not polls.
I will wait to see the counted votes, and the declared winner.
And if there's anything I don't like about it, I will work to change it going forward.
At this late date, I don't think there's a lot that is going to change. The outcome is most likely already fait accompli.
Since I believe that the *key* to a good Democracy is the tenancity with which the electorate keeps an eye on what their legislators are doing........election day isn't the be-all, end-all of anything for me.
Holding feet to fire 365 is what is necessary and required.
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10-26-2020, 09:49 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,494
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351 for Biden? What kind of stuff you been smoking.
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10-26-2020, 10:04 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyb
351 for Biden? What kind of stuff you been smoking.
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I said I'm bullish based on District level polling which is going the opposite direction it was in 2016.
Do I think Biden wins all of those? Meh...?
Doesn't matter... if he wins one of them the election is effectively over. This race is very different from conventional ones with the map tilted heavily blue at the moment so predictions are shotgun spraying at best (Texas seems more likely to go blue than Ohio for instance... weird to say but here we are). Lots of normal Red States are in the MOE this time around.
What I do know is I nailed 2018 down the exact number of house seats flipped and so I'm putting something out there for 2020.
You're welcome to do the same.
Last edited by elysiantraveller; 10-26-2020 at 10:06 PM.
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10-26-2020, 10:25 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,494
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
I said I'm bullish based on District level polling which is going the opposite direction it was in 2016.
Do I think Biden wins all of those? Meh...?
Doesn't matter... if he wins one of them the election is effectively over. This race is very different from conventional ones with the map tilted heavily blue at the moment so predictions are shotgun spraying at best (Texas seems more likely to go blue than Ohio for instance... weird to say but here we are). Lots of normal Red States are in the MOE this time around.
What I do know is I nailed 2018 down the exact number of house seats flipped and so I'm putting something out there for 2020.
You're welcome to do the same.
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My money and vote are already on Trump. I think Biden sunk the PA vote with his energy policy and can't see Biden carrying FLA. Trump will carry the south. Wisconsin gonna be close. Maine and NH going GOP and Biden is a weaker candidate than Hillary was. His flip flopping on defunding law enforcement, fracking ... Throw in questions regarding his son and his pay to play. Playing ball with the socialist/communist wing of his party. Voters aren't as stupid as Joe thinks.
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10-26-2020, 10:41 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyb
My money and vote are already on Trump. I think Biden sunk the PA vote with his energy policy and can't see Biden carrying FLA. Trump will carry the south. Wisconsin gonna be close. Maine and NH going GOP and Biden is a weaker candidate than Hillary was. His flip flopping on defunding law enforcement, fracking ... Throw in questions regarding his son and his pay to play. Playing ball with the socialist/communist wing of his party. Voters aren't as stupid as Joe thinks.
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Perhaps...
I see something close to 2008... +/- a decent size state.
Indiana for AZ... then... like I said... shotgun spray.
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