Dutch Schultz (Mountaineer Score /Rapid Rouge)

[Robert Fischer]

Rapid Rouge was obvious, and favored heavily 1/9 going to post

Dream Saturday was the top rival at 5/1




At the break, $ came out on the , and came in heavy on the , and they managed to pull off a very smart 'dutch' bet, with both runners finishing at 1/1 even-money...

and were really the only two who had a shot, and Rapid Rouge happened to prove best and win.


It was a little bit interesting to see money come out of the pools.

It also coincidentally wasn't great optics, also because the initial heavy favorite happened to stumble significantly at the start, and fail to get the lead.

Someone made a nice Dutch Scultz play.

[cj]

Can't help but notice significant money came off the 2.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

Can't help but notice significant money came off the 2.

Yea, that was weird.

I guess a large initial bet was cancelled and replaced by a couple (dutch) bets.



Incorrect Info- I said "stumbled"... I just watched the replay again, and the need-to-lead wire-to-wire didn't stumble, he actually appeared to 'hop' at the break.

broke well to have the lead from the gate, and the hesitated an instant and then was able to recover and rush up. had to be driven hard, but did get the lead after about 1 furlong.


It was kind of a weird strategy... was clearly the dominant horse on paper.

I'd guess (because of including the rest of the public's money in the win pool totals) that the Wild Dutchman actually had slightly more $ on .


The optics make you question whether the cancel-delay could be in effect. I thought that I read that was no longer a 'thing'?

Interesting race where I didn't have a bet. Really nice betting card at Mountaineer last night.

[jay68802]

In other words, pool manipulation at its finest.

[cj]

Originally Posted by jay68802

In other words, pool manipulation at its finest.

Yeah, that is a big red flag for me, especially for a place with miniscule handle like Mountaineer. Clearly people are playing games with the pools IMO, and worse yet they are being allowed to play games with the pools.

If you consider that 2,000 less was in the pool on the horse when it was final than at the prior reading, how much was actually taken out considering obviously some still bet the horse. 5k? 10k? No thanks for me.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by cj

Yeah, that is a big red flag for me, especially for a place with miniscule handle like Mountaineer. Clearly people are playing games with the pools IMO, and worse yet they are being allowed to play games with the pools.

If you consider that 2,000 less was in the pool on the horse when it was final than at the prior reading, how much was actually taken out considering obviously some still bet the horse. 5k? 10k? No thanks for me.

This has nothing whatsoever to do with the topic at hand, except that it happened at Mountaineer, and shows how badly even low-level thoroughbreds can smoke a whitetail deer running full out.

I just watched the replay of Race 3 on 10-27-19. At about the 0:29 mark you'll see two deer (does) on the track. One ducks under the outside rail as the horses pass, but the other apparently decided to get in on the fun, running along the rail.

Even accounting for ground loss that doe didn't stand a chance...

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

This has nothing whatsoever to do with the topic at hand, except that it happened at Mountaineer, and shows how badly even low-level thoroughbreds can smoke a whitetail deer running full out.

I just watched the replay of Race 3 on 10-27-19. At about the 0:29 mark you'll see two deer (does) on the track. One ducks under the outside rail as the horses pass, but the other apparently decided to get in on the fun, running along the rail.

Even accounting for ground loss that doe didn't stand a chance...

pretty cool

worth watching the replay to see them running



if Bambi drops in class and gets an inside post...

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

pretty cool

worth watching the replay to see them running



if Bambi drops in class and gets an inside post...

Its her first start, look for a lot of improvement in the next race. And don't worry about odds. she will be 10/1 at the gate and 7/2 at the end.

[paulbenny]

How do we know, given the timing that they actually were the ones and suppose someone came in later at another ITW site? Remember Firenze Fire etc.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

How do we know, given the timing that they actually were the ones and suppose someone came in later at another ITW site? Remember Firenze Fire etc.

Not sure exactly what you mean Paul.
I don't always interpret everything well, when I read from the internet.

1-3 things that jump out from the event

1. Money came out on the #2 - As CJ mentioned, it could be significant $, as the #2 was a heavy fav from the public, and had money aside from what the 'whale' had/cancelled (In other words $2k was seen cancelled but could have been $5-10k may have been cancelled at the last second from #2)
2. Second - money came out and back in very late(we kinda accept this, but this direct access or sometimes 'computer assisted' access to the tote is not something afforded every player on an equal playing field)
3. third - The #2 happened to 'hop' at the break, which made the kinda-Dutch strategy initially seem really LUCKY/psychic/fortunate [even though the #2 was barely able to hold off the #1 which would have paid the 'whale' better] (but also is unfortunate optics for those who believe in cancel-delay conspiracy)

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Rapid Rouge was obvious, and favored heavily 1/9 going to post

Dream Saturday was the top rival at 5/1




At the break, $ came out on the , and came in heavy on the , and they managed to pull off a very smart 'dutch' bet, with both runners finishing at 1/1 even-money...

and were really the only two who had a shot, and Rapid Rouge happened to prove best and win.


It was a little bit interesting to see money come out of the pools.

It also coincidentally wasn't great optics, also because the initial heavy favorite happened to stumble significantly at the start, and fail to get the lead.

Someone made a nice Dutch Scultz play.

Great catch. Your theory well fits the visuals you provide. But I think that more often big bets intended for partial removal are a ploy to sucker people into playing the second likeliest winner, who so often winds up seriously under-laid.

Whatever the case, it's often risky to bet the second fave at Mnr. I used to predict late tote movements with great accuracy, but when rebates trump handicapping, that's nearly impossible to do.

Incidentally, I've detected less well-conceived "dutching" schemes in our win pool lately. One or two were outright bizzare.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

pretty cool

worth watching the replay to see them running



if Bambi drops in class and gets an inside post...

If deer were nearly as fast as they think they are, I wouldn't have torn up three cars on rural roads. In fact, the last time I hit one (doing tons of damage to a sweet grand cherokee), I jumped out, ran over to the carcass and screamed: "You are NOT fast, WhatEVER made you think you are fast??? I yelled until I was hoarse.

Slow deer too impressed with their reps for speed are the reason Africa isn't teaming with skinny lions.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Great catch. Your theory well fits the visuals you provide. But I think that more often big bets intended for partial removal are a ploy to sucker people into playing the second likeliest winner, who so often winds up seriously under-laid.

Whatever the case, it's often risky to bet the second fave at Mnr. I used to predict late tote movements with great accuracy, but when rebates trump handicapping, that's nearly impossible to do.

Incidentally, I've detected less well-conceived "dutching" schemes in our win pool lately. One or two were outright bizzare.

Yea, I know what you mean with some of those betting schemes, and betting down 'the pick' early to hold off public action.

Also fair or not, in this game it's easy to assume the worst when the optics allow for it, even when it's not really the case.

What happened last night with that Coco Machen horse had about $68k to show and "just didn't have it" that night... Seemed to break casually in hand, settled back in 5th, slow for par race, a horse or two quit and hung in front of him in a 6 horse race and the rider must have known "he just didn't have it" as he was not abused...
I know you did warn against bridge-jumping, and that was good advice. Not good optics, but may well have just been the horse.



Tonight coming up next the DREAM SATURDAY - the horse who actually took the most whale money from the dutch race is back...

I'd have to guess he takes some bridge-jump money... Trainer is doing well... I'm just going to 'observe' and sit this race out.

[cj]

So we are just accepting pool manipulation as part of the game now? LOL. No thanks.

[classhandicapper]

Aren't there rules for cancelling bets.

I know for certain that at NYCOTB you could not cancel win or exotics bets over a certain amount in the last few minute without manager approval. You could only get manager approval if the betting clerk was the one that accidentally punched the wrong the ticket as opposed to a customer asking for a change.

That ensured that this kind of manipulation would be sharply reduced.