lowering the odds

[green80]

Does anyone have a simple formula that I can apply that would tell me how much I could bet before lowering the payout on my horse?

[Elliott Sidewater]

If you are a big bettor and are betting into a small pool, sometimes putting the big bet in early works best because it discourages other bettors looking for bettable odds on that horse.

Assuming you are not going to betting thousands of dollars on even money shots at smaller tracks, a reasonable guideline is to bet about $10 to win for every thousand dollars in the win pool; unless your horse is a big longshot you will not be hurting your odds. So much of the win money goes in late that there are never guarantees that someone else won't kill your price with their bet.

Welcome to whale world.

[Magister Ludi]

Originally Posted by green80

Does anyone have a simple formula that I can apply that would tell me how much I could bet before lowering the payout on my horse?

"Simple" is relative. The simplest model of which I know is a linear utility model which uses non-linear programming.

[green80]

Usually bet into a 5000-10000 pool. most horses are 5-1 or less.

[therussmeister]

If you are betting online, or have your computer with you when you bet, I would use an online tote board such as Supertote that allows the option of displaying each horse's pool as a percentage of the total pool. I would have already calculated what percentage corresponds to each odds point.

For example, with a 17% takeout:
2/1 = 27.7%
5/2 = 23.7%
etc.

With practice, it I find it easy to quickly calculate, in my head, how much I could bet without dropping the odds too low. But this assumes you can guess what the pool total will be, and which horse(s) will get the late money.

I do this with show bets where my goal is to not bet any horse with more than 15% of the show pool. But show pools are not as volatile as win pools, and except for bridge jumpers, it is rare for any horse to get bet heavily late.

[lamboguy]

as a rule of thumb, try not to ever bet more than 1% of the pool. on a rare occasion, i have bet big money into very large pools early, and got more than i ever dreamt of getting for odds.when you bet early in big places, there are always going to be conditional wager and pool analysis guys that will kick in because they see an imbalance in the pool, often times they over compensate and you get a better price. the hoarse still has to cross the wire on top

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by green80

Does anyone have a simple formula that I can apply that would tell me how much I could bet before lowering the payout on my horse?

The formula is straight-forward, and I originally started to include it here. After further thought, I realized that many folks are uncomfortable with math formulas, so I decided to delete it. It is better suited for set-up in something like an Excel spreadsheet.

The variables you need to know are:
(A) --> The total dollars in the pool you are interested in.
(B) --> The estimated payout of your wager BEFORE your wager is included.
(C) --> The track takeout rate of the wager type involved.
(D) --> The amount of YOUR wager.

When trying to do this in real time, (A) and (B) above are going to change. For (A), you can guess, or use a historical average pool size that applies to that track and wagering pool. I can provide you with that average if you need it. The (B) above will also need to be a guess. Even with the guesses and estimates for (A) and (B) above, they will still give you very good estimates of the Pool Dilutions.

For those who would like it, and in regard to WIN pool wagering, I can provide you with a chart with a limited number of Pool Dilution points, or I can send you my excel template. Just send me a p-m and we will go from there.


Chris

[erikeepper]

Open Excel and test for yourself how much will the odds change if you bet what % from the pool. Can you create some rule of thumbs?

This is what I noticed. If you bet an amount that IF you win, you will collect 5 % of the pool, the odds will change more or less 5 %. Or if 10 %, then it is 10 %. So in 10k pool trying to collect 1k, in 50k pool 5k etc. will make the odds drop ~10 %. Is this too much or not? If not, (you can) bet more.

Verify this and if you agree, well there you have it - no need for a linear utility model which uses non-linear programming.

[cj]

Here is a spreadsheet, just fill in the grey boxes and you'll have your answer.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by green80

Does anyone have a simple formula that I can apply that would tell me how much I could bet before lowering the payout on my horse?

A big bet changing the payout on your horse is not the only consideration.

The more important consideration is whether or not your bet drives the payoff down below your positive expectation threshold.

If you think a horse is 3-1 and it is currently 5-1 and your bet drives it down to 4-1 and 4-1 gives you enough an advantage then you should make the bet.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is a spreadsheet, just fill in the grey boxes and you'll have your answer.

Are the formula boxes locked? The xls I downloaded won't allow me to edit the formulas.

[cj]

Originally Posted by highnote

Are the formula boxes locked? The xls I downloaded won't allow me to edit the formulas.

Yes, but you can unlock them. There isn't a password. It is just so you don't overwrite them accidentally.

[green80]

Thanks CJ, that is exactly what I needed.

[DJofSD]

If there is a tote board showing the amounts for the pool you are interested in, to then get a rough idea of how much "wiggle room" you have, find another wagering interest that is at the same odds or one "click" shorter.

[cj]

Originally Posted by green80

Thanks CJ, that is exactly what I needed.

No problem...now if only we didn't have all the money pouring in after the windows are closed.