jocks - how much importance do you give to them

[Mdnspecialist]

There at stats out there showing jockey stats in dozens of different categories. Twinspires Express is one. At 3-1 coming from way off the pace. The horse will need that late pace no matter who's on him. 3-1 probably would've been 2-1 if Ortiz was aboard. So it's up to individual handicapper if the odds bump is worth it.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Nitro

It certainly does, but I'm sorry the moderators have cautioned me about discussing it.
Where have you been? It’s been mentioned quite often, but I could only wish that I developed it myself. Sorry for offering my personal preferences on such a vital handicapping thread.

Wow, point flew right over your head, eh?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Mdnspecialist

There at stats out there showing jockey stats in dozens of different categories. Twinspires Express is one. At 3-1 coming from way off the pace. The horse will need that late pace no matter who's on him. 3-1 probably would've been 2-1 if Ortiz was aboard. So it's up to individual handicapper if the odds bump is worth it.

That isn't what he asked. He asked how a person would adjust their own fair odds line.

How much probably depends on the strength of the rider for a particular race and in the case of a change, the difference between the listed rider. It wouldn't be much different than how you factor in the jockey. If you score Irad a 90 (say on a 1 to 100 scale) and the former rider a 70, you'd want to build that 20 points into your line. We can't really answer the question unless we know how much you factor the rider in the first place.

Let's say it is 5% of your odds line, that 20 point difference is only one point difference.

If the rider is 25% of your odds line, it is now 5.

Hope that helps, lots of hypotheticals, but my answer would be a change should have SOME effect. How much depends on how much you value the jockey. Personally I think the longer the race the more important the ride. Surface matters to, from dirt to synthetic to turf on the least to most scale.

[Mdnspecialist]

Originally Posted by cj

That isn't what he asked. He asked how a person would adjust their own fair odds line.

How much probably depends on the strength of the rider for a particular race and in the case of a change, the difference between the listed rider. It wouldn't be much different than how you factor in the jockey. If you score Irad a 90 (say on a 1 to 100 scale) and the former rider a 70, you'd want to build that 20 points into your line. We can't really answer the question unless we know how much you factor the rider in the first place.

Let's say it is 5% of your odds line, that 20 point difference is only one point difference.

If the rider is 25% of your odds line, it is now 5.

Hope that helps, lots of hypotheticals, but my answer would be a change should have SOME effect. How much depends on how much you value the jockey. Personally I think the longer the race the more important the ride. Surface matters to, from dirt to synthetic to turf on the least to most scale.

How many do you actually think do fair odds lines? This isn't 1980 anymore. At 3-1, Ortiz is now off because he suddenly got sick. Do you still want to bet the horse or not. You don't have to go into some fancy math to figure it out. But thanx for explainin it to me.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.

I haven't seen a lot of discussion of jocks here

maybe I just missed it

for example - let's say you thought a horse was fair value at 3/1

but then there is a jockey change

and Irad Ortiz Jr. is out because he's sick with the flu -

and a middle of the pack jock is now up

and it's a 2 turn race on dirt with 12 horses - and the horse is a closer

how would that effect your estimation of fair odds__________?


.

Not my area of expertise.

I don't know the answer(s) to your relatively complex question.
I don't understand basics like what constitutes a good or bad ride.

I'm not competent in these areas so I can't begin to work with your example.

Why does this 'Irad' guy seem like he has 'court vision' and timing like that basketball star I used to enjoy?

I've been handicapping the same closer for this 2 turn dirt race. He's very good for this class to be about a 25% winner in this field of 12.

Irad=Off. Miguel Vasquez gets the mount.
I can't see him parlaying an efficient trip with a 'Matrix-like' Irad-perfectly-timed-last-move.

The one thing that I DO KNOW here is that I want a big margin of safety (higher odds and willing to consider keying this mid-ranged price underneath). Maybe Vazquez will end up helping the value if I can pencil him in 3rd in the Tri or whatever? Will be a good race to watch.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Nitro

It certainly does, but I'm sorry the moderators have cautioned me about discussing it.

I know...you're so victimized...

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.

I haven't seen a lot of discussion of jocks here

maybe I just missed it

for example - let's say you thought a horse was fair value at 3/1

but then there is a jockey change

and Irad Ortiz Jr. is out because he's sick with the flu -

and a middle of the pack jock is now up

and it's a 2 turn race on dirt with 12 horses - and the horse is a closer

how would that effect your estimation of fair odds__________?


.

I take into consideration what the original intent was. Irad is a good jock. If he is also the go to rider, then the original intent seems a plus. While putting up a different jockey might downgrade that horse some, I'd be inclined to think that the horse is still the same and to not downgrade a lot unless the new jock is not a decent rider.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.

I haven't seen a lot of discussion of jocks here

maybe I just missed it

for example - let's say you thought a horse was fair value at 3/1

but then there is a jockey change

and Irad Ortiz Jr. is out because he's sick with the flu -

and a middle of the pack jock is now up

and it's a 2 turn race on dirt with 12 horses - and the horse is a closer

how would that effect your estimation of fair odds__________?


.

As a rough guide, I would estimate that a 3/1 with Irad, would go to 7/2 with a other top quality rider(15% +), 4-1 with a medium rider (maybe 10%-14% win percentage rider) 9/2 with a 5 to 9% rider and maybe 5 or 6-1 with a low percentage rider (under 5%). I am not that precise when I make adjustments but that is ballpark the way I would adjust a line. You may consider the rider more important in turf races than dirt races or routes vs sprints, or marathons vs routes or from different post positions in different races etc. Also you may equate a 12% rider to a 17% rider in your mind or vice versa, so that will influence your decision.

Also in the case that a horse goes from a bad rider to a good rider it would just be the reverse, or maybe even more pronounced. It is a very subjective thing and it is just part of the capping process. Same idea with trainers.

There is also trainer/jockey combos you can factor into the decision. Losing Irad but moving to one of a trainers money riders may not even call for a downgrade etc.

[vegasone]

As an observation of last minute jockey change with a very popular jockey to a different jockey years ago, it seemed that if he was on a favorite it didn't seem to make a difference. Such a study today would be in order to actually have a valid opinion. Usually the jockey agent/trainer combo would want the best jockey for a likely winner so unless the replacement jockey was totally bad it probably wouldn't make a difference. Just a thought.

[Cutter14]

Jockeys are pretty important when I handicap--Many times if I see a big favorite being ridden by a poor percentage jockey I will usually toss out the horse or pass the race-There are reasons why better jocks get better mounts--For me if I see a jock that rides at 5% or less it''s an immediate toss-I know a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while but not with my money-

[lamboguy]

when the race tracks started to show projected payoffs for perfecta, exacta or even quinella payoffs, i knew a guy that would walk into the track with the old half programs that didn't show running lines. the man sat in front of a television with a big cigar in his mouth and charted the exacta payoffs against the win and place pools. i swear i don't know how his system work, but he used to cash some huge tickets. he would come up with exactas using big spreads that had 25-1 shots or more in them. the guy was one of the few marines to fight in Korea. he got hit in his head and back with Schaffner wounds he had his hip screwed together and walked around with a metal plate in his head. he collected about $400 a month in pension money. he bought a new Buick every other year and never missed a meal or a day at the race track. when he was done with Suffolk, Rockingham, Lincoln Downs or Narragansett, he would make his way over to the nighttime racing. the most i ever saw him hit for was something like a $6.00 perfecta. when the tracks went from 3 perfecta's a card to every race he was at his heyday. another thing this guy did was bet 1 pro football game every year. it was always the all-star game. and i never saw him pick a loser in that game. naturally, i asked him what his system was and he would never tell anyone and took the system to the grave with his body. when i used to ask him who he liked in a race or the all-star game he replied "i don't know yet". he went to the window and was always the last guy at the window before the bell went off punching his tickets.

today with about 70% of the wagering showing up to the pools after the race has started, we need more guys with plenty of money playing tote analysis. if they can win in this type of environment, they deserve more than the money they win!

[romankoz]

I have been creating a dbase of 4/1 or less chances from the main city tracks for almost five years on jockeys and trainers as I want to know which are the best. I can tell you that some trainers frighten the hell out of me with 4/1 and less chances as do some jockeys. Others are just brilliant compared to the hopeless and although you have accept a lesser price that issue is often overcome by consistency in rides.
There is no reason to suggest it's not the same in the USA.
I will have a look and provide two examples shortly.

[romankoz]

It’s not all just about jockeys: trainers can play a part in jockey stats. I have found two jockeys with about the same number of rides.
Jockey A 693 rides for 26.8% wins:losing 1.0% on turnover for all trainers
Jockey B 669 rides for 25.0% wins: losing 11.1% on turnover for all trainers
Jockey A is better but only just short of 2 winners per 100 rides yet must be overbet to be losing about 76 units
Dig a bit deeper and we find
Jockey A with Trainer A have had 168 runs returning 202 units for + 20% at 29.8% winners
Jockey B with Trainer B have had 185 runs for returns of 187 for less than 1% profit on turnover on 29.7% winners
It seems far too many bettors want to back Jockey B so when he wins he pays less yet Jockey A seems to be shunned to a surprising extent by the bettors.
As a bettor it would always pay to circle the rides of Jockey A on well fancied runners and give an extra tick if Trainer A trains it. By the same token I would not be dismissing Jockey B with Trainer B in any great hurry but would be more demanding in price to start with.
So, getting back to the question asked I answer “Yes the jockey is important” but I add a caveat “Have a look at the trainers he rides the most for” as well.

[classhandicapper]

I just studied this using a regression model with inputs of Beyer Figure last out, Class/Form figure last out, Running Style, Earning Box Consistency, Trainer (on a scale of 1-5 based on win%) and Jockey (on a scale of 1-5 based on win%).

The regression showed that Jockey was worth 12.4%.

That was higher than I was expecting.

That was just for dirt stakes races, but I doubt it would shift dramatically in other types of races.

Of course, you can do better than a scale of 1-5 by knowing the individual strengths and weaknesses of the riders and the circumstances, whether there was a favorable or unfavorable switch, the trainer/jockey combos and other things. Plus the more you add to your line the less each factor is worth. But for me, that was a pretty good start and enlightening. Hope that helps.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Mdnspecialist

How many do you actually think do fair odds lines? This isn't 1980 anymore. At 3-1, Ortiz is now off because he suddenly got sick. Do you still want to bet the horse or not. You don't have to go into some fancy math to figure it out. But thanx for explainin it to me.

Welp, I'm sure the biggest bettors in the country do them, the CRWs.