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03-27-2023, 05:47 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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jocks - how much importance do you give to them
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I haven't seen a lot of discussion of jocks here
maybe I just missed it
for example - let's say you thought a horse was fair value at 3/1
but then there is a jockey change
and Irad Ortiz Jr. is out because he's sick with the flu -
and a middle of the pack jock is now up
and it's a 2 turn race on dirt with 12 horses - and the horse is a closer
how would that effect your estimation of fair odds__________?
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-27-2023 at 05:52 AM.
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03-27-2023, 06:13 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
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i pay more attention to the Jockey Agent than i do to the Jockey.
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03-27-2023, 09:48 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 647
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I pay a little more attention to the jockey in turf races. Also depending on what specific track I am handicapping I might pay a little more attention to the rider in some cases.
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03-27-2023, 10:54 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
i pay more attention to the Jockey Agent than i do to the Jockey.
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Good point. The agent and the trainer select jockeys and that is what puts them on winners. Certainly some jockeys are better than others (oh, I wish I could see Shoe ride one more time), but they need a good mount.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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03-27-2023, 12:17 PM
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#5
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,296
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What do horses do after they've thrown their rider? Continue around the track , usually wide, with the group
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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03-27-2023, 12:20 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 103
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i pay attention more to the low percentage riders who effect a horses performance day in and day out and then also look for rider switches to which these riders come off of horses and jockeys who are top jockeys climb aboard
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03-27-2023, 07:51 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.
I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.
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03-27-2023, 07:54 PM
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#8
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.
I follow one of the factors that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.
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FTFY...
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03-27-2023, 09:07 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
FTFY...
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Perhaps that’s necessary from your perspective, but there was definitely no need to fix my statement.
I’ll stand by my personal preferences:
Quote:
I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action
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Tote Analysis for Race #7 – Santa Anita – Mon 2-27-23
Code:
7 NAME ML OPEN 3m PP PT 3m 5m 8m 12m FIN
1 Getthemoney 1.8 5.0 4.5 1 80 79 67 73 78 3
2 Coffee inBed 1.2 1.0 0.8 2 120 208 178 105 141 2
3 Liberal Lady 8.0 10.0 12.0 3 130 117 120 120 119 4
4 Lily Poo 3.5 3.5 3.5 4 152 83 99 102 92
5 Anywho 8.0 3.5 4.5 5 79 72 68 70 66 1
6 Clasymadmoselle 20.0 21.0 22.0 6 232 239 236 196 164
0 0 0.0 #### 0 0 115 142 129 99 108 PAR
RESULTS
POS # Horse...............Win........Place.......Show
1st: 5 Anywho..........$11.80.....$4.60.......$3.60
2nd: 2 Coffee In Bed................$3.00.......$2.10
3rd: 1 Getthemoney................................$3.00
4th: 3 Liberal Lady
5th: 4 Lily Poo
6th: 6 Classymademoiselle
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03-27-2023, 09:32 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.
I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.
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Does this method point to any horses over 10-1? Or does it generally show drastic moves in the betting action on lower priced horses?
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03-27-2023, 09:46 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Perhaps that’s necessary from your perspective, but there was definitely no need to fix my statement.
I’ll stand by my personal preferences:
Tote Analysis for Race #7 – Santa Anita – Mon 2-27-23
Code:
7 NAME ML OPEN 3m PP PT 3m 5m 8m 12m FIN
1 Getthemoney 1.8 5.0 4.5 1 80 79 67 73 78 3
2 Coffee inBed 1.2 1.0 0.8 2 120 208 178 105 141 2
3 Liberal Lady 8.0 10.0 12.0 3 130 117 120 120 119 4
4 Lily Poo 3.5 3.5 3.5 4 152 83 99 102 92
5 Anywho 8.0 3.5 4.5 5 79 72 68 70 66 1
6 Clasymadmoselle 20.0 21.0 22.0 6 232 239 236 196 164
0 0 0.0 #### 0 0 115 142 129 99 108 PAR
RESULTS
POS # Horse...............Win........Place.......Show
1st: 5 Anywho..........$11.80.....$4.60.......$3.60
2nd: 2 Coffee In Bed................$3.00.......$2.10
3rd: 1 Getthemoney................................$3.00
4th: 3 Liberal Lady
5th: 4 Lily Poo
6th: 6 Classymademoiselle
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If you had discovered this system where tote prices is all you need, surely you would have mentioned it before instead of sidetracking this thread with it.
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03-27-2023, 09:51 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Perhaps that’s necessary from your perspective, but there was definitely no need to fix my statement.
I’ll stand by my personal preferences:
Tote Analysis for Race #7 – Santa Anita – Mon 2-27-23
Code:
7 NAME ML OPEN 3m PP PT 3m 5m 8m 12m FIN
1 Getthemoney 1.8 5.0 4.5 1 80 79 67 73 78 3
2 Coffee inBed 1.2 1.0 0.8 2 120 208 178 105 141 2
3 Liberal Lady 8.0 10.0 12.0 3 130 117 120 120 119 4
4 Lily Poo 3.5 3.5 3.5 4 152 83 99 102 92
5 Anywho 8.0 3.5 4.5 5 79 72 68 70 66 1
6 Clasymadmoselle 20.0 21.0 22.0 6 232 239 236 196 164
0 0 0.0 #### 0 0 115 142 129 99 108 PAR
RESULTS
POS # Horse...............Win........Place.......Show
1st: 5 Anywho..........$11.80.....$4.60.......$3.60
2nd: 2 Coffee In Bed................$3.00.......$2.10
3rd: 1 Getthemoney................................$3.00
4th: 3 Liberal Lady
5th: 4 Lily Poo
6th: 6 Classymademoiselle
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I had the 45-1 wire to wire winner in the race before yours. Contest max is $42. Horse paid $93.60. Last two picks were just block picks.
Last edited by cj; 03-27-2023 at 10:04 PM.
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03-27-2023, 10:01 PM
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#13
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.
I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.
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Why do you do this? Someone asked about jockeys. If you have nothing to add, simply add nothing. It is actually rude.
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03-27-2023, 10:02 PM
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#14
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Why do you do this? Someone asked about jockeys. If you have nothing to add, simply add nothing. It is actually rude.
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And now you've derailed a thread once again. You want to talk about tote action, start a thread.
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03-27-2023, 10:26 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamt
If you had discovered this system where tote prices is all you need, surely you would have mentioned it before instead of sidetracking this thread with it.
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It certainly does, but I'm sorry the moderators have cautioned me about discussing it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamt
If you had discovered this system where tote prices is all you need, surely you would have mentioned it before instead of sidetracking this thread with it.
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Where have you been? It’s been mentioned quite often, but I could only wish that I developed it myself. Sorry for offering my personal preferences on such a vital handicapping thread.
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