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03-24-2023, 04:13 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,278
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graded stakes or low level - which easier to profit
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I've always felt it's more enjoyable to bet on a graded stakes race than on a low level race
and it also seems easier to profit on a high level race - you can often see some in the race who are talented and consistent
but I'm not really sure about that - it's just an anecdotal observation
obviously it would seem like a bad deal to bet really big on a low level race if your bet is big enough to knock the odds down
I'm not a pro betting racing
it turns me off when I look at a low level race and I see the fave has finishes something like - 7, 3, 4, 2, 6 - and the others are even worse
yes, I know there could be a good bet if one is dropping or if his speed or pace figures are superior - but I tend to lose interest when I see that
what's your take on this - thanks
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-24-2023 at 04:17 PM.
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03-24-2023, 05:00 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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I love mid-level claiming races for older horses on the dirt. And my next-favorites are the low-level claiming races for older horses on the dirt. But unfortunately for me, these races are few and far between...having given way to the turf races and the maidens. A sad state of affairs, IMO.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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03-24-2023, 05:09 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 590
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always liked cheap claiming races made nice scores on them back in the day having learmed at suffok dowms U thats what there was but like the gentleman above says hard to find today and when you do theyre 5-7 horse fields
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03-24-2023, 05:41 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
.I've always felt it's more enjoyable to bet on a graded stakes race than on a low level race
and it also seems easier to profit on a high level race - you can often see some in the race who are talented and consistent
but I'm not really sure about that - it's just an anecdotal observation
what's your take on this - thanks
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You might not realize it, but the major difference between playing a Stakes race versus a lower class level race is that the player can generally count on all the entries trying to win the race. That’s because of the desire to get a piece of the larger purse monies involved.
That’s never the case with the lower-class races. As far as I’m concerned, the only way to detect the intentions in those type of races is to follow the live betting patterns. They can sometimes be either very obvious or very subtle. The understandable justification for this is the desire to get a piece of those sometimes very attractive betting pools.
Either way, the motivation is clearly to win money.
As an insider or an outsider isn’t that what this game is all about?
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03-24-2023, 06:17 PM
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#5
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,513
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low level - a horse I've seen a flaw is entered in a race as favorite/2nd-choice.
stakes - Entertainment, and I'm looking for public bias/misconceptions about a star or class situation
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-24-2023, 06:40 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 774
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I think everything depends on the type of handicapping you favor. If you like to analyze the speed game, I think you should focus on lower purses. And if you like to analyze class, then focus on higher purse races.
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03-24-2023, 07:41 PM
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#7
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Unreconstructed
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,640
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I love maiden claimers, especially around two turns. One of my favorite plays is a sprinter stretching out. Watch the gallop outs closely, often the key to a live one.
__________________
Deo Vindice
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03-25-2023, 11:07 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
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I prefer playing high quality races, but one downside to them is that most of the trips, severe biases, race flow issues, training issues etc.. get wide discussion in articles, on social media, and on TV. So to find value you sort of have to disagree with the perception and hype coming from other serious players.
At the lower levels, many of the horses have issues and are less consistent. I think one of the keys to those races is finding a horse that’s very likely to fire its “A” race today. I think trainer is more important in cheap races than higher quality races.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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03-25-2023, 03:52 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 78
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Gary G (Good gallop out)
Gary: What specifically constitutes a good gallop out?
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03-25-2023, 04:08 PM
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#10
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,248
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VALUE is where you find it
THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE, parimutuelly, between a graded stakes race and a lowly maiden claimer...NONE
IN BOTH situations, as a matter of fact with ALL wagering opportunities, one looks for odds mismatches to the reality of a horse's winning, as the race itself is merely the CONDUIT for gambling. That conduit could be the March Madness college basketball tourney, a fight, NBA, NHL, MLB, an election, etc etc. as the relative merits of each race is different.
I make the most $$$$$ at cheapy tracks when biases are extant (Mahoning Valley Downs and others) where big money has not yet fouled the pools.
Horses are LESS CONSISTENT? That goes without saying, but the ROI makes up for that as gambling, NO MATTER the conduit, boils down to finding value and bypassing the rest.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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03-26-2023, 06:51 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2022
Posts: 81
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One school of thought is that great handicappers who strongly believe in their opinions prefer better horses as they are more dependable and takes some of the “luck” factor out of the equation. Of course no horse is really dependable in any given race.
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03-26-2023, 07:36 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 646
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I too prefer mid level to lower claiming races on the dirt for older horses. In reply to the OP question I wouldn't necessarily say they are easier to profit from though because nothing is easy for me as far the handicapping puzzle in this enjoyable game goes.
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03-26-2023, 08:03 AM
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#13
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,619
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
You might not realize it, but the major difference between playing a Stakes race versus a lower class level race is that the player can generally count on all the entries trying to win the race. That’s because of the desire to get a piece of the larger purse monies involved.
That’s never the case with the lower-class races. As far as I’m concerned, the only way to detect the intentions in those type of races is to follow the live betting patterns. They can sometimes be either very obvious or very subtle. The understandable justification for this is the desire to get a piece of those sometimes very attractive betting pools.
Either way, the motivation is clearly to win money.
As an insider or an outsider isn’t that what this game is all about?
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Excellent point. Took me a while to figure that out.
95% of my bigger scores were in Stakes races. Always up and coming horses or horses being over-looked due to some “old school’ reason.
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WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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03-26-2023, 08:05 AM
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#14
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,619
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soflant
Gary: What specifically constitutes a good gallop out?
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You’ll know it when you see it
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WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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03-26-2023, 11:03 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 101
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[QUOTE=46zilzal;2866303]THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE, parimutuelly, between a graded stakes race and a lowly maiden claimer...NONE
This is about the same in OZ. I was quite surprised some years ago now to see a study of Maidens versus the better class and the favs in maidens actually had a better win percentage. The LOT (Loss On Turnover) was about the same for both groups.
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