Louisiana Derby

[Robert Fischer]

6/all except (4,7,8,12)/13911 $1
all except (4,7,8,12)/6/13911 50 cent

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by zico20

Not a particularly strong field and I am not crazy about the Everyone except the could hit the board. My pick is the over the

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I feel even stronger about the after seeing how this track has been playing. Prat either goes right to the top or lays all over the , whom I think he can roll by whenever he wants.

Huge Ex: 6-2
Ex: 6 w 1-9-11
Ex: 2-9 w 6
Big Fat Gnarly Win Bet: 6

Nice work!

[PhantomOnTour]

Looks like a few of us got that.
Nice job fellas

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

6/all except (4,7,8,12)/13911 $1
all except (4,7,8,12)/6/13911 50 cent

$0.50 TRIFECTA 6-5-11 $192.45
$1TRIFECTA 6-5-11 $384.90


curly jack did not factor

rough for the 7 11 in the gate... not happy w/ my wagers but good to know some of these runners.

got that forward position and it paid off. Nice horse. I'm not catching 'Derby Fever' from this but good race.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

6/all except (4,7,8,12)/13911 $1
all except (4,7,8,12)/6/13911 50 cent

Seemed like a merry-go-round today.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20 View Post
Not a particularly strong field and I am not crazy about the Everyone except the could hit the board. My pick is the 6 over the 1 4 5 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
I feel even stronger about the after seeing how this track has been playing. Prat either goes right to the top or lays all over the , whom I think he can roll by whenever he wants.

Huge Ex: 6-2
Ex: 6 w 1-9-11
Ex: 2-9 w 6
Big Fat Gnarly Win Bet: 6
Nice work!

nice job guys

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Seemed like a merry-go-round today.

Yes indeed.

Good to see everyone participating for the big races.

Good forward position, and settled is the place to be in this race. Most years, regardless of pace projection.

Then today, pretty much knew the 6 had an advantage. 1 3 9 11 were on my 'radar'

11 took some money. Some was all the talk w/ jock switch etc... but he ran OK and busted through the gate once before the start...

I want to go back and watch the Disarm's race again.

good stuff

[zico20]

Originally Posted by zico20

Not a particularly strong field and I am not crazy about the Everyone except the could hit the board. My pick is the over the

YES!!! I had the tri and the super a full ticket. My biggest score of all time! This is two years in a row I have hit the Louisiana Derby!

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

nice job guys

Thank you Robert and Aerocraft for the compliments!

[rastajenk]

Very efficient, can't beat that.

[Bustin Stones]

Here's my problem with the race.
The jockeys all read the past performances and understand how the pace is setting up before they run the race. And if they have a horse that needs to be near the lead I get that they have no choice but to set the race up for closers. The opposite is that they know if they don't pressure the leader in a race with no pace, they automatically lose. This was the choice of the jockeys in this race. To automatically lose. No matter the preference of one's mount, you have to take your mount out of its comfort zone or why bother entering? And if this was a nothing race, who would care. But, these owners are gambling with big money and expectations. The response that "I can't make the horse do what he isn't comfortable doing" seems dishonest. Of course you can. He may not run his best race, but at least you didn't give away the race.

[Nitro]

Some Very nice calls there guys!

Originally Posted by P.Rosa

#6 Kingsbarns is undefeated & has the 1st race out from Tampa angle.
#4 comes from way off the pace and might land a small share in what I expect to be a slow early pace race.

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Kingsbarns out of the Pletcher barn looks like he could sit on the lead in a paceless race.
Looks to be absolutely zero speed in this field..

Originally Posted by Michael

The only win bet contenders for me are Jace's Road, Kingsbarns, and Sun Thunder. My profiles point to Jace's road and Sun Thunder. My Pace and Speed Figures say Pletcher's going to take out the bamboo stick.

I hope you boxed them for the Exacta!?

Originally Posted by Geno_Gino

Looks like a good betting race. I am going with #5, Disarm, and will key him over the 2, 4, 6, and 7. Good luck to everyone wagering!

Exceptional Call!

Originally Posted by zico20

Not a particularly strong field and I am not crazy about the Everyone except the could hit the board. My pick is the over the

Originally Posted by Nitro

Preliminary picks
I see the early speed coming from the , , and .
I’m leaning toward keying both the and with the , , , and for vertical play.

Although this field did in fact get wired the tote analysis showed the #6 could not be ignored.

Tote Analysis for Race #12 FAIR GROUNDS -LA DERBY

PP	M/L	OPEN	4TH	PP	END	4th	3rd	2nd 	1st 	FIN
POS	ODDS	ODDS	ODDS	POS	107	98	96	96	98	PAR
1	12.0 	16.0 	16.0 	1	129	148	155	158	173	4
2	2.0 	1.2 	1.2 	2	97	59	54	54	57	
3	12.0 	24.0 	27.0 	3	152	152	150	150	149	
4	5.0 	10.0 	9.0 	4	124	119	118	114	111	
5	10.0 	8.0 	8.0 	5	82	92	98	103	101	2
6	6.0 	3.0 	3.0 	6	84	81	84	85	90	1
7	12.0 	32.0 	27.0 	7	134	182	175	174	176	
8	15.0 	81.0 	70.0 	8	214	180	165	167	162	
9	10.0 	17.0 	16.0 	9	135	142	135	137	142	
10	12.0 	51.0 	44.0 	10	148	170	159	158	154	
11	12.0 	8.0 	8.0 	11	93	98	101	106	109	3
12	20.0 	42.0 	41.0 	12	253	263	256	262	238	

Results for an Exacta & Triple boxed
POS #.......Horse.............Win...........Place..... ....Show
1st: 6.......Kingsbarns......$11.00.......$6.40.......$ 5.00
2nd: 5 Disarm..................................$7.80..... .$7.00
3rd: 11 Jace's Road..........................................$5.6 0
4th: 1 Shopper's Revenge

$2.00 EXACTA 6-5....$94.60
$2.00 TRIFECTA 6-5-11 ....$769.80
$2.00 SUPERFECTA 6-5-11-1 ......$7010.40

[Michael]

I think there's something to be said for how well Jace's Road ran after bashing his face into the gate. Same for Cagliostro... DeVaux likely had that horse ready to roll. My initial betting line was 24/1 on Cagliostro. Could have been a contender. Just outside of consideration for this past weekend.

Both deserve a mulligan. The front wraps on Jace road can't be a positive. I'll save my diatribe on front wraps for another day.

[boys at tosconova]

disarm took a lot of $$$ and ran well. took 2x as much as shopper who santana selected over him. the 7/10 were ignored at the window when they could have been supported more.

don't know what to make of the race as a whole but i'm not that impressed at all. i will have to re watch it and isolate a few

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Michael

I think there's something to be said for how well Jace's Road ran after bashing his face into the gate. Same for Cagliostro... DeVaux likely had that horse ready to roll. My initial betting line was 24/1 on Cagliostro. Could have been a contender. Just outside of consideration for this past weekend.

Both deserve a mulligan. The front wraps on Jace road can't be a positive. I'll save my diatribe on front wraps for another day.

I'm pretty disappointed with the Jace's Road. But he has valid excuses, including Kingsbarns delivering on his upside, pace setup, and track bias—as many here predicted.

I didn't try to unwind my wagers when Jace broke the gate, but that obviously changed his prospects. Not dueling and prevailing for the lead may have been the optimal decision to avoid burning him out entirely, but that also suggested a much less likely win.

All that said, he came in third in a field of 12, beat by good horses that took money. He took a good bit of his own money in the will pays, and he even held on to third choice in the win pool—there was plenty of time for big money to move around between his gate break and the start. Probably deserves some credit next time out accordingly.

The Shopper's Revenge was really the only interesting longshot to do anything. Did what he had to, establish more forward position than his history would imply, which also saved him a bit of ground. The hit some traffic and may otherwise have filled the bottom of the super instead, but I'm satisfied with Shopper's at 20-1.

Hard to know about what the might have done. It'll be obvious he was compromised here next out, but he kind of seemed to get the worse of the gate break (the seemed to bust through a little cleaner).

What happened to the favorite? We were all vaguely disinterested, but no one was really guns-a-blazin' against him. Unfortunately I was more accommodating of him than the other chalk defensively, and got beat by just like I warned myself might happen.

Second choice over fourth choice exacta was no shocker, but it did include two of the most promising yet least proven contenders. And dropping the favorite boosted the payouts a bit. So it was indeed a good betting race.