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Old 03-31-2023, 12:55 AM   #181
acorn54
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trends in racing change with the economics of the times. trainers, new and old, change their training tactics. data base analysis with my own records find a remarkable change in alot of areas. size of fields have changed. weekends show much different results than weekday cards. racing horses into condition versus working out horses in the morning has changed. racing is dynamic and one has to take into account the changing landscape. that is why data studies such as mr meadows has provided will always be of value.
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Old 03-31-2023, 05:27 AM   #182
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This cliche is another wives tale. Same baloney I've heard from Beyer years ago.
you've indicated that you believe that concepts from people that are generally well thought of are basically useless

what do you believe works and is useful in this game______?


.
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Old 03-31-2023, 07:35 AM   #183
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Look back at the 30 companies that made up the Dow back in your younger days...How many are still there as part of the Dow 30 ?....Not many.
How many? How many were added? If I bought 100 shares each time a stock was added how did I do. To be fair there would be a good case for selling the shares when removed from the dow. If I were writing the story I would look at it both ways.
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Old 03-31-2023, 11:59 AM   #184
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must be nice to tout how well your index does and be able to remove the horrid performers and replace them with mega-stars every few years...
Wait - are we talking about supertrainer stables or stock indexes?
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Old 03-31-2023, 12:34 PM   #185
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Wait - are we talking about supertrainer stables or stock indexes?
at the least, we are talking about logic.
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Old 03-31-2023, 12:39 PM   #186
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Ahhh...survivability bias is real

https://seekingalpha.com/article/207...ex-performance

must be nice to tout how well your index does and be able to remove the horrid performers and replace them with mega-stars every few years...
that's not nice, but this may be.

How many (were taken out of the dow)? How many were added? If I bought 100 shares each time a stock was added how did I do. To be fair there would be a good case for selling the shares when removed from the dow. If I were writing the story I would look at it both ways.
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Old 03-31-2023, 02:55 PM   #187
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I play mostly win and verticals, but based on your comment, I'm not sure you understand the issue.

Let's say I find a trainer angle that's been winning at 25% with an average payoff of $15, it has been going on for the last couple of years, and it fits a certain style of training. So I'm pretty sure it's not just noise. By the time I notice it, so probably have a few other people. So they will start getting bet lower. Maybe I'll have a good run for awhile depending on how frequent they are, but more people will notice it and handicappers will start mentioning the stat on TV and podcasts. Before you know it, they are still winning at 25% but the average payoff is $6.80. At that point it's almost useless information. And NO, there is no value in the exotics unless I have some other value oriented insight. People are not stupid enough to bet them to win and let the other payoffs be inflated.

I understood what you said the first time which is no different than you reiterated to me because you think I don't understand. I do. But you don't seem to understand what I said. I'll try again.

I play P6's in with a group of players on carryovers. In constructing our ticket, singles are like gold because if they hit we are spread out elsewhere.

What I am saying is that if there is a horse as you say with a 25% winning average, REGARDLESS OF THE REDUCED PAYOUT FROM GENERATIONS AGO, that horse is a very strong contender as a single in a P6 or P4 etc.

This brings up another major flaw in the book. Meadows gives the ROI of angles. I DON'T CARE ABOUT THE ROI OF ANGLES BECAUSE THEY ARE INEVITABLY GOING TO BE LOSERS. What you want to know is the WIN PERCENTAGE. This is similar to blackjack and card counting. Are the percentages in your favor?

My database tells me the percentages of all the horses in a race to win that race based on their FORM. As mentioned it has already picked 3 P'6's this year alone just with its highest percentage in each race. In other words with a 20cents investment.

I don't know any database that can do that. That's why I say my database is better than Meadows or Massa combined. This is not my ego talking. It's blown my mind and am still in the process of developing it. And of course it has more "bad" days than "good". But when its good, it's really good.

So you get it? These "reduced value" horses can pay boxcars in exotics.
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Old 03-31-2023, 03:29 PM   #188
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I don't know any database that can do that. That's why I say my database is better than Meadows or Massa combined.
Arrogance and double-talk in the same paragraph. Bravo! And riddle me this Batman -- why do you need to be part of a P6 group? If you have this magic database shouldn't you be able to cover the ticket cost by yourself with all of the money you have made?
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Old 03-31-2023, 03:33 PM   #189
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The more you post, the less sense you make

You know absolutely nothing about Massa's database.


You are making a fool of youself.
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Old 03-31-2023, 10:19 PM   #190
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Arrogance and double-talk in the same paragraph. Bravo! And riddle me this Batman -- why do you need to be part of a P6 group? If you have this magic database shouldn't you be able to cover the ticket cost by yourself with all of the money you have made?
Stalker.
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Old 03-31-2023, 10:24 PM   #191
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The more you post, the less sense you make

You know absolutely nothing about Massa's database.


You are making a fool of youself.
I've been playing for 40 years. I know HTR and Massa. I know he's been to the NHC and so have I. Give it up Tom.
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Old 04-01-2023, 09:21 AM   #192
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Old 04-01-2023, 07:01 PM   #193
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If you are plotting a trainer or jockey or trainer/jockey statistics you eventually pick up what might be called "minor" form movements, such as distance changes or traveling quite some distance from their home stables or jockey changes. Knowing this statistic does not mean the Holy Grail of betting has been conquered but it sure gives you a mathematical start.

I assume keen US bettors query why a horse has won they missed that won at good odds. By doing that sort of post race analysis I feel I am keeping up with a trainers new style if that's the reason for what I missed. One factor I missed for a while but have adjusted mentally is the fact that first race starters well fancied in the market win more often that I thought they would five years ago overall. Where some differences occur is with certain trainers: some seem mathematically inept with FRS while others are better that I thought they were.

Re confidence levels: it's simple. You need to believe in yourself and your methods of sorting contenders and assessing reasonably acceptable prices. I recently had a run of seven losers on best bets but I refused to change anything as I was confident the bad run would break sometime and so it did with 2 winners. I must admit I made a mistake with the distance ability of one of my losers but I know that's going to happen from time to time.
Tough game.
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Old 04-03-2023, 02:05 PM   #194
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In the past 2 weeks i have caught four double digit winners blinkers on ----that is a useless stat ! as i am sure there are many more---way to many angles to sort through---keep it simple and look for prices is the way for me----these numbers are info overload
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Old 04-03-2023, 03:44 PM   #195
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In the past 2 weeks i have caught four double digit winners blinkers on ----that is a useless stat ! as i am sure there are many more---way to many angles to sort through---keep it simple and look for prices is the way for me----these numbers are info overload
The problem for handicappers is that the computer never gets overloaded.
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