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Old 02-20-2023, 06:29 PM   #46
thaskalos
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Still working at the grocery store?....Of course you are, while I bet the horses full time...Fact.
Haven't seen the grocery store in 4.5 months. But I must say I miss it.
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Old 02-20-2023, 06:29 PM   #47
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I can think of several other things that I look for. You have to be very comfortable with data provided for your analysis. Race analysis (and the data provided) is only as good as the ability of the analyzer.
This is my process.

1. I allow the computer to look through the PPs and charts to create metrics that describe the makeup of each field, how the race was run, and how the track was playing that day.

2. I allow the computer create notes to be imported into Formulator for all the races and to especially flag all the extremes. From the extreme races, it creates a file of any horses to be upgraded or downgraded next out.

3. I import all the computer notes into Formulator.

4. I watch the replays looking for things the computer is not programmed to find and pay special attention to the flagged races/days because that's where some of my bets will come from. I override the computer when I think it's appropriate and add the other notes.

5. Race day the computer spits out all the upgrades and downgrades running that day with projections of whether they are moving into better or worse conditions.

The goal is to find upgrades moving into favorable conditions to bet on and vice versa. All the notes and reports are part of my subjective handicapping. It's a nice process, but it's mostly just a time saver. I still have to watch everything, make tough judgments, bet correctly, and use the information well. That's no easy task.
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Old 02-20-2023, 06:30 PM   #48
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Haven't seen the grocery store in 4.5 months. But I must say I miss it.
Good...Quit losing and keep it that way...
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Old 02-20-2023, 06:31 PM   #49
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This is my process.

1. I allow the computer to look through the PPs and charts to create metrics that describe the makeup of each field, how the race was run, and how the track was playing that day.

2. I allow the computer create notes to be imported into Formulator for all the races and to especially flag all the extremes. From the extreme races, it creates a file of any horses to be upgraded or downgraded next out.

3. I import all the computer notes into Formulator.

4. I watch the replays looking for things the computer is not programmed to find and pay special attention to the flagged races because that's where some of my bets will come from. I override the computer when I think it's appropriate and add the other notes.

5. Race day the computer spits out all the upgrades and downgrades running that day with projections of whether they are moving into better or worse conditions.

The goal is to find upgrades moving into favorable conditions to bet on and vice versa. All the notes and reports are part of my subjective handicapping. It's a nice process, but it's mostly just a time saver. I still have to watch everything, make tough judgments, bet correctly, and use the information well. That's no easy task.
How many races do you bet on in an average week?
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Old 02-20-2023, 06:32 PM   #50
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Good...Quit losing and keep it that way...
I am trying to win...but it's so much easier to lose.
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Old 02-20-2023, 06:46 PM   #51
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How many races do you bet on in an average week?
VERY FEW, but it depends on the meet and time of year.

I don't even handicap most days anymore. I do a ton of work, but I live a more balanced life than you'd expect from someone that works as hard as I do on this.

I handicapped 8 races this entire weekend and bet 2. I made one monstrous mistake of omission in one race. I didn't pull the trigger on an obvious play for reasons I still can't quite comprehend, prayed the entire race he would not win, and he won at a big price. I'm playing this game for close to 50 years and I still do dumb a$$ things.
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Old 02-20-2023, 06:51 PM   #52
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VERY FEW, but it depends on the meet and time of year.

I don't even handicap most days anymore. I do a ton of work, but I live a more balanced life than you'd expect from someone that works as hard as I do on this.

I handicapped 8 races this entire weekend and bet 2. I made one monstrous mistake of omission in one race. I didn't pull the trigger on an obvious play for reasons I still can't quite comprehend, prayed the entire race he would not win, and he won at a big price. I'm playing this game for close to 50 years and I still do dumb a$$ things.
You must be playing this game for the "intellectual challenge".
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Old 02-20-2023, 07:16 PM   #53
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You must be playing this game for the "intellectual challenge".
I love the sport. Betting on it has been part of my life for close to 50 years. It's part of who I am, but I don't want it to be my entire life. I play, keep score, and enjoy myself.
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Old 02-20-2023, 08:58 PM   #54
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The problem that I have is when a "professional horseplayer", who calls the racetrack his "personal ATM", quits the game so he can go get himself another job, which doesn't allow him the "personal freedom" that the gambling life allows. Like when Dick Mitchell quit the game so he could return to teaching math.

Nobody that I know would have referred to the late Dick Mitchell as a "professional horseplayer". Nice man, got to spend a lot of time with him at the 1995 BC in NY and saw him occasionally at Del Mar.



In my view, one of the biggest hurdles for success is psychological. The ability to handle the inevitable losing streaks without letting emotions interfere with decision making.
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Old 02-20-2023, 09:20 PM   #55
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Nobody that I know would have referred to the late Dick Mitchell as a "professional horseplayer". Nice man, got to spend a lot of time with him at the 1995 BC in NY and saw him occasionally at Del Mar.
I knew the late Dick Mitchell too. He used to tell me that the only reason he couldn't make "Rolls-Royce wages" at the track was because full-card simulcasting hadn't been implemented yet. We lost track of each other soon after that...and I just assumed that he made the transition to "professional horseplayer" status, since full-card simulcasting burst upon the scene a while later.
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Old 02-20-2023, 09:30 PM   #56
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In my view, one of the biggest hurdles for success is psychological. The ability to handle the inevitable losing streaks without letting emotions interfere with decision making.
I used to think that too. And then I met more than a few quite successful poker players, who managed to handle the psychological aspect of poker quite nicely, even though the losing streaks were just as prevalent there too. I just can't understand why there are so many more professional poker players than professional horseplayers...and this leads me to believe that the biggest hurdle in horse-betting is the complexity of the game, and the "economics" that govern it.
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Old 02-20-2023, 11:05 PM   #57
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I used to think that too. And then I met more than a few quite successful poker players, who managed to handle the psychological aspect of poker quite nicely, even though the losing streaks were just as prevalent there too. I just can't understand why there are so many more professional poker players than professional horseplayers...and this leads me to believe that the biggest hurdle in horse-betting is the complexity of the game, and the "economics" that govern it.
I think poker has fundamental rules. Pot odds vs real odds. Position. Etc. If you understand statistics and can do some fairly simple math on the fly, poker tends to resort to the statistical mean. Thus, a patient and reasonably intelligent observer can ultimately achieve routine success. Horse playing however involves both the left and right side of the brain. Creativity, insight, and boldness must be complemented by a strong analytics based opinion, or visa-versa. Both involve ups and downs but losing streaks for the horseplayer may not be undone by resorting to fundamental principals nearly as linearly as for the poker player. Thus a more resilient psychological fortitude must be employed by the horse player.
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Old 02-20-2023, 11:15 PM   #58
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For a sports bettor that loses 4.5% at random it is not a huge climb to become profitable (not saying it is easy either). But when you are talking about the non rebated losing 20% in wps pools and around 27 to 28% in most other exotic pools,

Am I to assume you have 20% takeouts in the win place show at all tracks or is it here and there? Similar ask about exotic pools?

If so there's no doubt a serious bettor should only be betting on second or third favourites in the USA but ONLY if the favourite is deemed a false favourite on FORM. I highlight FORM as there are favourites that are false prices but should still be the favourite.

We had a perfect example this weekend with Nature Strip, the world's best sprinter ratings wise. He was certainly the right horse to have as favourite but his price a tick over 1/1 ($4 US) was unders.
I know you are sort of new to this forum and you bet racing maybe in Europe. I don't know anything about how racing works out there. The closest I ever came to playing at Betfair was playing at EhorseX many years ago, and I loved it.

If you are interested in my point, just do a search using the search term rebates. I have been posting essentially the same thing and having same arguments for a number of years. The takeout is driven up rebates. So while most tracks have wps takeout in the 16% range, and exacta/doubles in the 18 to 20 % range and higher takeouts in other exotic pools. For some reason the major venues only believe in reduced takeout (many 15% takeout pick 5 pools) in the low probability wagers (which of course is the opposite of what they should be doing, but for the horse bettor the pick 5's become the best betting opportunity). Anyways, in a recent post, somebody that seems to access to the info provided data that indicated that after the rebated teams (whales, caws, whatever you want to call them), that the roi for the rest of the public was -20% in the wps pools and 27 to 28% in most other exotic pools (at NYRA for 10 the last 10 years). That just illustrates how much damage the caws are able to do with pool access and high rebates they get.

FWIW, my solution is that they need to eliminate all rebates, charge a 8% takeout in the wps pools, 10% takeout in the double and exacta pools and a 15% takeout in all other exotic pools. I believe that those are the numbers that are optimal. No scientific study just my gut as someone who has played this game and other gambling games for a long time and has a real good feel for what those numbers are. That is a playing field that gives everyone a chance to win, will create an army of horse racing bettors beating the sport and growing their bankroll and feeding the pools vs a couple dozen (or whatever the number is) caw bettors, who will eventually cannibalize the market so much there will be no market, and will keep the losses for aspiring horse bettors within reason. Since the folks creating the final odds (the Caw) will have to leave a gap between fair value which is would then be above fair value and not below fair value providing better wagering opportunities for all. That way folks like Robert Fischer have a legit chance to make 30K betting a sport they are passionate about instead of having to be complete or get very good rebates to have any chance at all.

By the way regarding your post, these team aren't just betting the favorite they are betting any horse with perceived value to below fair value. The rebates do the rest. The non rebated bettor has no chance of beating this game with the exception of a tiny percentage of bettors. They basically take away all value on the "live horses" and provide more value on "dead horses".
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Old 02-20-2023, 11:19 PM   #59
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The problem with these "scientists" is that they can find enough proof to support BOTH sides of a given argument. For instance...this man here says that a future "reward" that we promise ourselves after completing a difficult task actually takes away our enjoyment for the task because the emphasis is placed upon the reward, and not the task. But I just finished a book by another noted psychologist (Brett Steenbarger)...and he endorses "future rewards", because they provide the necessary "motivation" for completing the difficult task.

Steenbarger even states a case where, in order to "motivate" himself to lose weight...he bought himself an expensive wardrobe of smaller-sized clothes, figuring that there would then be an added incentive to lose the weight...since he didn't want the expensive new clothes to go to waste. It's hard to know whom to believe when sound arguments can be made for both sides of a given issue.
That's a learned response.


The concepts behind what the video says are, in fact, questioned by the scientific community and not accepted as fact.

Don't recall his exact words but it was something that sounded (to me) like you must get yourself to believe that the battle is the reward as opposed to the winning of the war.

The difficult part is how you convince yourself of that.

But when I heard that, I instantly knew it would work for me because I'm a many-decades practitioner of self-hypnosis. I knew I could install such a suggestion.

It has completely changed my outlook on exercise.
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Old 02-20-2023, 11:51 PM   #60
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In as much as this thread feels like it is swerving towards philosophy, i'd like to add this.
The takeout that we refer to unhappily is the juice that makes the whole thing possible. So many people are living their dream contributing to the caring for those horses. I believe our contributions are appreciated. And if our contributions paid all the bills we wouldn't need the casino industry to subsidize the sport. And the people who structured those subsidies deserve a vote of thanks as well. Elderly women at slot machines are in some ways financing the horse racing industry.
It may be a little selfish and greedy to consider only how that takeout effects us.
You miss the only vital point. Eliminating rebates and pricing this game properly will make the sport thrive not hang on life support feeding off of other forms of gambling and other government charity. So your perception is thank Goodness we have little old lady playing slot machines so that crumbs can trickle down the the racing industry. My perception is fix the game so that the racing industry is self supporting. Then maybe the old lady playing slot machines might make her way over to the track and play the horses instead and whether she does or not there will be plenty of crossover advantage gamblers that will.

You seriously think it is a good thing that this game survives off of a couple dozen teams at the expense of everyone else playing it (if they haven't already quit). You think it is wise with advantage gambling thriving, racing has zero interest in appealing to advantage gamblers?
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