Late money "still king" Mahoning 7th

[shout1966]

Also something that needs to be considered is the track.




I could not find pools separate but the total wps pool in this race was $38k.
comparing that to parx random race it was $90k.


Its alot easier to move odds from 4-1 to 6-5 at Mahoing Valley then a bigger track like Parx or Nyra.

[porchy44]

Again, I watched the race from my iphone with a twinspires app. I just went back and watched the replay. the odds were 4/1 as the last horse was loading. And yes after about 10 seconds the horse goes to 6/5. The twinspires app on the iphone changed as I originally reported. My assertion was "late money still king". Which it was and is.

I just wanted to vent, because it happens to me often. My friend has opposite feelings when late money is reported after the break. He always say "You better hope he comes down in odds". His assertion is horses going up in odds after the break are at a severe disadvantage.

[davew]

$9810.86 total win on Due North out of a win pool of 28,483.08

the 2 was second favorite closing at 7/5 with $9561.27 in win pool.
and showed 3/5 when entering

1- 4 - 6/5
2- 3/5 - 7/5
3- 15 - 12
4 - 5 -8
5 - 10 -9
6 - scr
7 - 7 -8


3 horses actually went down, I do not know pool totals as I have seen in the past money pulled from big favorite and sometimes put on other horses.

I got the following chart from amwager

[Jeff P]

There's a pattern I see that keeps repeating itself over and over again:

The late money is somehow able to predict events that take place early in the race that often (but not always) translate to a win later in the race.

Handful of examples from races I recently bet:

• Yesterday 03-30-2021 WRD R7:

--Odds shown by my ADW facing up to the gate:
WIN Pool approx $9K
#7 MYSTERY STAR 8-5
#8 PUSSYCAT PUSSYCAT 5-1

--During the race:
#8 PUSSYCAT PUSSYCAT broke sharply then placed under restraint by her rider who got her to stalk the pace from the outside. Surged to the lead from the far outside on the turn and held sway with minimal urging through the stretch to win by 2L.

--Final Odds shown by my ADW:
WIN Pool approx $26K
#7 MYSTERY STAR 5-2
#8 PUSSYCAT PUSSYCAT 2-1




• Today (03-31-2021) TAM R8:

--Odds shown by my ADW facing up to the gate:
Win Pool approx $36K
#1 STRIKING HEIR 5-2
#8 PAPAJUDGY 2-1

--During the race:
#8 PAPAJUDGY broke sharply then placed under restraint by his rider. Then rated kindly while racing on or near the lead from about the 2 path up the backstretch and about the 4 path on the turn (avoiding the dead TAM rail on the turn.) Opened up a clear lead in the upper stretch and held sway while under a brisk hand ride except for one left handed reminder at about the 1/16th pole.

--Final Odds shown by my ADW:
Win Pool approx $90K
#1 STRIKING HEIR 3-1
#8 PAPAJUDGY 1-1




• Today (03-31-2021) WRD R6:

--Odds shown by my ADW facing up to the gate:
Win Pool approx $7k
#2 FLASH ATTACK 4-5

-During the race:
#2 FLASH ATTACK raced between rivals going up the backstretch as part of a three-way pace scramble. Was headed from the outside entering the turn. Fought hard to salvage a third place finish.

--Final Odds shown by my ADW:
Win Pool approx $18.9K
#2 FLASH ATTACK 1-5

Note: This one was a departure from the pattern. (The late money was wrong.)





• Today (03-31-2021) WRD R7:

--Odds shown by my ADW facing up to the gate:
Win Pool approx $6k
#7 DENVER CITY 7-5
#8 WRANGLERED 5-1


-During the race:
#7 DENVER CITY rated among rivals going up the backstretch, opened up a clear lead in the upper stretch and held sway to the wire. #8 WRANGLERED stalked the pace from the outside, circled all but one rival on the turn, and was second best in a hard try.

--Final Odds shown by my ADW:
Win Pool approx $36K
#7 DENVER CITY 3-5
#8 WRANGLERED 3-1





• Today (03-31-2021) PARX R10:

--Odds shown by my ADW facing up to the gate:
Win Pool approx $26K
#6 ROCK ON LUKE 4-5

--Shortly after the gate load and during the race:
#6 ROCK ON LUKE began shifting about in the gate. The starter caught him moving backwards and he broke last, spotting the field about 6L. Began moving up through the first turn to reach contention midway up the backstretch. Tired (understandably) on the second turn and finished out of the money.

--Final Odds shown by my ADW:
Win Pool approx $53K
#6 ROCK ON LUKE 6-5



Not saying there's cheating because I don't have actual proof of mid-race betting or mid-race canceling.

I do know it's entirely possible to create models that estimate the likelihood of being first at the start call from the data.

I also know it's possible to station an agent at the track who uses a 5G phone to stream video of the horses back to another location where tickets involving horses that are clearly acting badly can be canceled before the race goes off.

If I could see the odds-on favorite in the Parx race acting badly in the gate:

There's no reason someone working for a whale team couldn't see it too - and react in a timely manner if they wanted to.

But all of that said --

Hell yeah... The late money is accurate.



-jp

.

[the little guy]

CAW play has always favored speed on dirt. This shouldn't be a surprise.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

"late money is king" only when it's not..or when the late money is only in the win pool and not extended into the exacta pool.
if I had the desire, and my programing skills back, I have enough data to prove or disprove it.

Surprisingly enough this is the only response that provides a meaningful hint as to what’s important when considering the impact of money movement during a typical betting cycle. That’s because there’s a mention of observing more than just the Win pool (The odds). Unfortunately, the typical comments made by the general handicapping community seem to always revolve around the obvious changes in these odds and as a point of fact are not always the actual telling factor. Viewing the odds by the time the horses are loaded is obviously too late to make or change a bet.

There is of course more than one mutual betting pool available for viewing along with the involvement of both the Exacta and Quinella pools. Detailed observations of all these pools simultaneously at any given time is still not sufficient. In order to really understand what’s happening all these pools have to monitored and documented at specific betting intervals. This will permit a superior evaluation when the overall betting on each entry can be compared among themselves. The documented comparisons made at each betting interval will further illustrate the actual betting flow among the entries. This permits ample time to make that bet by at least 3 min to post (at the smaller tracks with reduced betting pools) and 5 minutes to post (at the larger tracks with bigger betting pools).

If anyone actually believes that the “late” money in any betting pool is being caused by a mass of $2 bettors they’re greatly mistaken. That’s because they’re completely ignoring the impact of a portion of the betting population who knows a lot more about the soundness of these animals then anything found in the subjective interpretations of the past performances. Don’t kid yourself! Their betting is an obvious reflection of their confidence level which produces the objective information found later in the betting pools. Of course the “best laid plans” don’t always work out, but I feel that the true contenders in any race can be revealed through a thorough evaluation of the overall sequence of betting activities. I don't look for Winners. I look for Winning Plays because I'm only interested in the bottom line for playing this game.
.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by porchy44

7th race Mahoning, I bet (# 1 Due North .)ML 9/2. Breaks out of the gate at 4/1.

Halfway down the stretch announcer calls him "up by 10." Right on cue, the horse drops to 6/5 Im watching from app on phone.

I know this has been discussed ad nauseum, still bothers me. (I know, why do i still love this game ?)

The only way some entity pounds late like that into a win pool like mvr's is they truly believe they have some super-secret decoder-ring "wiseguy" grip on the race. Otherwise, they bet early and scare some play onto other ostensible "overlays."

But in this instance, given the post position and powerful pro-speed bias in play, Due North could not have BEEN more obvious. But I wonder if the late money even realized what, beyond those factors, made Due North an absolute cinch?? I'm referring to co-chalk, fellow speed threat, and habitual quitter Glitter- Girl having been strong armed behind the leader in her recent mdn score. That abrupt and successful change in tactics virtually GUARANTEED that Glitter Girl would be guzzled again, and give Due North a free roll on the lead.

Obviously in retrospect, Due North wins big no matter what ride Glitter Girl gets. But if the late money took her impending tactical edge into account-or even saw it coming, I would be surprised.

Watch the replay, in particular, the tactics on Glitter Girl.

[formula_2002]

Purely an academic observation

.

The total book on the Mahonig race 7 was 124%, equating to a 20% win pool take out.
If you made a proportional exacta odds bet based on the calculated final odds a 1/ all bet returned $1.70. on the dollar
The $1 track win pool payout on the #1 horse was $1.30.
The 1/3 $1 track payout was $17.90, the fair value for this exacta was $30.47

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Purely an academic observation

.

The total book on the Mahonig race 7 was 124%, equating to a 20% win pool take out.
If you made a proportional exacta odds bet based on the calculated final odds a 1/ all bet returned $1.70. on the dollar
The $1 track win pool payout on the #1 horse was $1.30.
The 1/3 $1 track payout was $17.90, the fair value for this exacta was $30.47

correction.
The $1 track win pool payout on the #1 horse was $2.30 on the dollar.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Nitro

If anyone actually believes that the “late” money in any betting pool is being caused by a mass of $2 bettors they’re greatly mistaken. That’s because they’re completely ignoring the impact of a portion of the betting population who knows a lot more about the soundness of these animals then anything found in the subjective interpretations of the past performances. Don’t kid yourself! Their betting is an obvious reflection of their confidence level which produces the objective information found later in the betting pools. Of course the “best laid plans” don’t always work out, but I feel that the true contenders in any race can be revealed through a thorough evaluation of the overall sequence of betting activities. I don't look for Winners. I look for Winning Plays because I'm only interested in the bottom line for playing this game.
.

If you actually read what anyone said, everyone (except Andy) is making the point that insiders are making these bets. That's literally everyone's concern. So almost everyone is agreeing with your constant and never-ending point that insiders know more, but you're not bright enough to comprehend that.

[formula_2002]

a conjecture

uk wolverhampton race 3 on 03-29-2021
.
6/1 exacta wins

$1 track exacta payout=$16.30

based on win pool odds of 2.30 -1 on the winner and 3-1 on the place horse, $1 fair exacta would be $14.74

perhaps a way of quantifying "late money" is to compare the fair value exacta pool payout to the actual payout, the thought being, late money concentrates on the win pool and makes little or no play in the exacta pool thereby creating an overlay in the exacta pool.

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by mountainman

The only way some entity pounds late like that into a win pool like mvr's is they truly believe they have some super-secret decoder-ring "wiseguy" grip on the race. Otherwise, they bet early and scare some play onto other ostensible "overlays."

But in this instance, given the post position and powerful pro-speed bias in play, Due North could not have BEEN more obvious.

That is the precise reason I bet the horse. I thought 4/1 was a gift. My new moniker should read, "Beware of a Track odds-board bearing gifts".

[davew]

Originally Posted by porchy44

That is the precise reason I bet the horse. I thought 4/1 was a gift. My new moniker should read, "Beware of a Track odds-board bearing gifts".

When all the fish are gone, the sharks start eating the sharks except when the killer whales drop by to eat a little of everything.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by castaway01

If you actually read what anyone said, everyone (except Andy) is making the point that insiders are making these bets. That's literally everyone's concern. So almost everyone is agreeing with your constant and never-ending point that insiders know more, but you're not bright enough to comprehend that.

Apparently your reading comprehension really hasn't improved very much! Do you suppose that Turf Monster is suggesting that "everybody" is an an insider?

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

What do people expect to happen when everybody is sitting around their computers waiting til the absolute last second to bet? It’s like being stuck in traffic and complaining about it

I know its difficult for you to rationalize, but perhaps someday my point about the insider betting influence will sink into that skull of yours. They have as much right to bet to their heart's content as anyone. Why any horse player would be concerned about this reality tells me just how much they understand the game.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by mountainman

The only way some entity pounds late like that into a win pool like mvr's is they truly believe they have some super-secret decoder-ring "wiseguy" grip on the race. Otherwise, they bet early and scare some play onto other ostensible "overlays."

But in this instance, given the post position and powerful pro-speed bias in play, Due North could not have BEEN more obvious. But I wonder if the late money even realized what, beyond those factors, made Due North an absolute cinch?? I'm referring to co-chalk, fellow speed threat, and habitual quitter Glitter- Girl having been strong armed behind the leader in her recent mdn score. That abrupt and successful change in tactics virtually GUARANTEED that Glitter Girl would be guzzled again, and give Due North a free roll on the lead.

Obviously in retrospect, Due North wins big no matter what ride Glitter Girl gets. But if the late money took her impending tactical edge into account-or even saw it coming, I would be surprised.

Watch the replay, in particular, the tactics on Glitter Girl.

Local sharks definitely tend to Lower the Early $$ and scare off action. They do this for a living or a large side. It doesn't take a billionaire to manipulatete a known strong favorite and attempt to get a fair price by scaring off.

Maybe it was a sharp player w/ knowledge of the tactics. Maybe it was a CAW syndicate who simply throw down very late anywhere, whenever the opportunity presents.

Good insights. I have no knowledge on the race itself. I didn't even handicap this race hard beyond a 'glance' at the ML fav.

//side-note; this was one of these races at Mahoning, and other tracks that does not happen to have an in-coming 'Willpay' for 'rolling' DD or P3etc.. / no willpays. These races are then harder for some players to use certain models to predict/project the market.