How to make money in horse racing

[Jeff P]

Should probably add I got most of that after reading an interview of Paul Tudor Jones.


-jp
.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

The knowledge base (loosely defined as accounting for the effect of pace) existed in published handicapping books as far back as the 1930's.

I have a book (hardback) written by E.W. Donaldson titled How to Select Winning Horses published by Montee Publishing Co. in 1937.

I also have a PDF copy of an earlier version of the same work written by Donaldson titled Consistent Handicapping Profits also published by Montee Publishing Co. in 1936.

Fyi the 1936 version became a collector's item selling for as much as $1,000 on Amazon when Barry Meadow wrote a review after sitting down with it in the Keeneland Library.

Among other things Donaldson's work included parallel time charts, an exhaustion curve plotting exponential decrease in velocity given increase in distance traveled, a simple framework for plotting the times of the horses in a race graphically at each point of call, the effect of weight carried, ground loss on turns, some insights on trip handicapping in a chapter of the 1937 version titled Diagnosing the Finish, and even how to to identify, correct, and prevent 'figure creep' in your figure making process.

clickable thumbnails below

A Google search for the phrase "site paceadvantage.com montee publishing" (without the quotes) turned up a Paceadvantage thread from 2005 mentioning both books:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=21202

The oldest published work on the knowledge base I've personally been able to find is Donaldson (Montee Publishing Co. 1936.)

That said, who knows how long the knowledge base has been in existence published or unpublished before that?


-jp
.

Amazing!


The thing that convinced me that old time horseplayers were way better than modern books and handicappers thought was reading through some race charts from the 20s and 30s.

I found references to track biases, subtle trips, pace considerations etc...

The best players knew what they were doing. What changed is that a lot more information was put into the PPs, more products were developed that gave you access to the information on a computer, replays became available etc... So now WAY more people understand the game much better and have access to information that used to only be in the hands of the very few willing to work hard enough to get it.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

From what I experienced those using the Rags put far more money through the windows than most other players. The Rags were also widely used by trainers to spot their horses.


I am not making a value judgement as to the Rags v. Sartin Methodolgy, just an observation.

I agree 100%

Sometimes a horse will go off as the favorite and I don't understand why. I'll often review the Thorograph or Ragozin figures after the fact. Quite often the horse looks way better on the "sheets" than on other figure sources. IMO, they have a noticeable impact on the board. In fact, when I'm thinking about ways to find an edge, my thinking is often along the lines of "what are those sheets guys doing wrong than I can exploit".

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

The benefit to that is it puts to rest these folks who think large samples go negative afterward because people (whales, the easter bunny etc) are adjusting and taking away all the value that was there. Well if you do it in reverse that puts that myth to rest.

We agree on on a LOT, but I think there are some exceptions.

I think different factors become more dominant on the board as more and better information becomes available. For example, widely available speed figures almost certainly changed the betting patterns a bit on fast horse moving up in class.

But I think trainer patterns are the most obvious case.

The availability of good trainer data and databases (like Formulator) makes it way easier to track which trainers are hot/cold, their strengths/weaknesses, their favorite jockey combinations etc... You can observe how the average prices for certain patterns tend to change as the data changes and/or as the samples get larger.

The same is true of track biases even during a single racing card.

I think there is a subset of factors whose relevance doesn't change much over time and a handful that can change, sometimes fairly quickly, that players do adjust to.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Triopstor

What kind of "strong player's models" like how people select horses and tote board information?

anything that can be automated and then can probably create some new things.

if the player has certain factors or models that they consider, can learn how to make them faster and better as well as learn what the models are (to create a fully-automated program).

'Charts' is an easy example. Say there are a several patterns I look for when I play a selected race and value them in certain ways. I just do it by hand, and then usually go back and watch the replay again for that pattern to validate it.

An automated thing can flag and present all similar patterns in ALL races.
It could bring them up so I can review them and determine whether it is signal or noise.
It could alternatively or in addition throw them all on a watchlist. I could review any entrants of a certain pattern with a morning line within certain ranges (maybe i want negative patterns for favorites, and positive for mid-range+ odds?)
have certain things where 'consecutive pattern occurrences' get flagged for review - Say a horse has 3 consecutive adverse trip patterns; There's now an increased probability that this horse's form is 'darkened' and presents value.

That's just charts. Many many possibilities.

Other models may be less friendly?

[PIC6SIX]

The problem is, no two races are run alike.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by PIC6SIX

The problem is, no two races are run alike.

Shocking that the whales can win in such a chaotic world.

More shocking that almost everyone else loses.

Perhaps races are alike enough that this idea doesn't hold water?

[46zilzal]

People seem CONSTANTLY look for new ideas in handicapping, WHEN to the contrary, they should be looking for specific venues and new ideas in WAGERING. I make most of the ROI at little places like Mahoning and Thistledown

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

People seem CONSTANTLY look for new ideas in handicapping, WHEN to the contrary, they should be looking for specific venues and new ideas in WAGERING. I make most of the ROI at little places like Mahoning and Thistledown

It amuses me when I read posts like this, which hint that "wagering" is somehow more important than 'handicapping'. Doesn't our wagering hinge on our handicapping? I mean...without sharp handicapping, what kinds of wagers would we be able to make?

I even see some posters here who claim that a superior 'bettor' who is also a mediocre 'handicapper' would be able to outplay someone who is the reverse. And I wonder...how can a "mediocre" handicapper make 'superior" bets?

[sharkey11]

i was a young fella went to the track with an older guy 40s or early 50s i had a winner 7-2 and had 5 bucks on it came back to our seats and said to the friend i had that one well as the races went by so did the money i won earlier the friend said to me go cash this for me he had an exata that payed 135.00 and i looked at the tix and it was a 40.00 one he said to me that how you bet kid so the knowage of how to bet plus his handicapping served us well for him the score and for me the way to bet after he said save your forms and study them after the races another lesson shown was when the p 3s first came out a guy says to me lets baseball 3x3x3 i said na to many wasted bets well he did the p3 himself and i liked 1 horse in the first 2 leggs and was leaning to one in third leg so i bet a key a with abc whit abc then abc wth a wth abc ect well it hit and i had p3 x 3 and he had p3 1 time 900 for him 2700 for me .

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It amuses me when I read posts like this, which hint that "wagering" is somehow more important than 'handicapping'. Doesn't our wagering hinge on our handicapping? I mean...without sharp handicapping, what kinds of wagers would we be able to make?

I even see some posters here who claim that a superior 'bettor' who is also a mediocre 'handicapper' would be able to outplay someone who is the reverse. And I wonder...how can a "mediocre" handicapper make 'superior" bets?

Don't have the time to explain it depth to you...WAGER creation: the LOST ART in this game

I imagine I could GIVE someone the top 5 finishers (randomly) in races already done (and not allowing vertical exotics) the majority would LOSE $$$$$

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It amuses me when I read posts like this, which hint that "wagering" is somehow more important than 'handicapping'. Doesn't our wagering hinge on our handicapping? I mean...without sharp handicapping, what kinds of wagers would we be able to make?

I even see some posters here who claim that a superior 'bettor' who is also a mediocre 'handicapper' would be able to outplay someone who is the reverse. And I wonder...how can a "mediocre" handicapper make 'superior" bets?

I have witnessed countless superior handicappers tap out because of their inferior betting skills.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I have witnessed countless superior handicappers tap out because of their inferior betting skills.

Yes...but have you witnessed any inferior handicappers who have thrived due to their superior betting skills? How do the "inferior" handicappers come up with their "superior" bets?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Don't have the time to explain it depth to you...WAGER creation: the LOST ART in this game

I imagine I could GIVE someone the top 5 finishers (randomly) in races already done (and not allowing vertical exotics) the majority would LOSE $$$$$

I fail to see the significance of your comment here.

[Cutter14]

knowing how to bet (money management) is very important but if you are a lousy handicapper YOU WILL NEVER MAKE MONEY--