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Old 10-02-2014, 12:39 PM   #1
raybo
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Brisnet running styles

As a previous long time loyal Brisnet data file user, I have been trying to figure out exactly how Brisnet calculates their running styles for years now. Why? Because they work better with my method than those sources that only use horses' "good" races.

But, some of their assignments are quite puzzling. For instance, how does a horse with only 3 races, and the following 1st and 2nd call data, get assigned an "E" running style?

Start position, 1st call position, 2nd call position, 1st call B/Ls, 2nd call B/Ls.

Most recent race: 3, 3, 2, 1.00, 1.00
2nd race back: 3, 3, 4, 1.50, 3.50
3rd race back: 5, 4, 4, 2.50, 9.50

This same scenario could also be assigned an "E/P" and maybe even a "P" designation.

This is just one example of how confounding their criteria are for the various running style assignments they make (E, E/P, P, S, N/A).

So, if any of you have tried programming or otherwise calculating their running style assignments, without actually getting it from their data, and have "figured it out", please PM me. (I've read every article available regarding their criteria, but none of it works when programmed or calculated manually, because the criteria is not complete.

I normally would not post something like this, but since Brisnet does not offer an unlimited data downloads plan, even to their long time loyal customers thereby forcing them to seek other options, then I feel justified in making this post.

PA, feel free to delete this if you think it is inappropriate. I'm just tired of trying to figure it out myself.
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Old 10-02-2014, 01:27 PM   #2
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I think the topic of this thread is interesting and a good subject to analyse

For starters, in this spreadsheet I present a comparison of Quirin Speed Points vs Bris Style.

The data is coming from a universe of 48,218 starters, accumulating the occurrences of each possible pair of QSP and BRS which (of course) appear to be correlated to some degree.
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Old 10-02-2014, 01:32 PM   #3
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I've always assumed those BRIS running styles were automatically assigned by some data analysis routine.
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Old 10-02-2014, 02:16 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
I think the topic of this thread is interesting and a good subject to analyse

For starters, in this spreadsheet I present a comparison of Quirin Speed Points vs Bris Style.

The data is coming from a universe of 48,218 starters, accumulating the occurrences of each possible pair of QSP and BRS which (of course) appear to be correlated to some degree.
Thanks DL! From what I have read, Brisnet Quirin points use Quirin's original calculations and criteria. It is the running styles that I am having problems with, not the Q points. Their running styles documentation is quite general, and vague, in nature and "obviously" does not explain exactly all the criteria they use for running style assignments. Statements like "E horses like to be on the lead" are meaningless.
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Old 10-02-2014, 02:18 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJofSD
I've always assumed those BRIS running styles were automatically assigned by some data analysis routine.
I am 99.9% sure that a computer program assigns their running styles. That is what I am trying to do also, but have been unsuccessful thus far.

I have written so many "what if" formulas for this stuff over the years that it would make your head swim. There must be a way to reverse engineer them, but I just don't know how to do that without using trial and error, and that has not worked.
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Old 10-02-2014, 03:16 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
As a previous long time loyal Brisnet data file user, I have been trying to figure out exactly how Brisnet calculates their running styles for years now. Why? Because they work better with my method than those sources that only use horses' "good" races.

But, some of their assignments are quite puzzling. For instance, how does a horse with only 3 races, and the following 1st and 2nd call data, get assigned an "E" running style?

Start position, 1st call position, 2nd call position, 1st call B/Ls, 2nd call B/Ls.

Most recent race: 3, 3, 2, 1.00, 1.00
2nd race back: 3, 3, 4, 1.50, 3.50
3rd race back: 5, 4, 4, 2.50, 9.50
Is this a real example? I think you still need to include the finish position/lengths to make any judgements...
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Old 10-02-2014, 03:23 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by GameTheory
Is this a real example? I think you still need to include the finish position/lengths to make any judgements...
Yes, that was a real example. According to Brisnet, they don't consider finish positions or finish B/Ls, only 1st and 2nd call positions and B/Ls.

The method I use needs to know how a horse "normally" runs, not only how it runs when it has a "good" race ("good" normally means 1st, 2nd, or 3rd and B/Ls of 2 or less, and I never assume any horse is going to run his "good" race). When horses have only 1 or 2 of those races (or none), and they were in the distant past, they do me no good.
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Old 10-02-2014, 03:34 PM   #8
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I'm surprised to hear that BRIS running styles might differ from Quirin. Including Giles' PC style in the mix is an improvement IMHO.
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Old 10-02-2014, 03:39 PM   #9
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It's been a long time since I looked at the original book for QSP. Heck, I'm not even sure where I have put that book. But, as I recall, the original formulation was at the 2nd call and had a cut off for so many lengths behind the leader.

For the BRIS running style, one thing I never got around to doing was seeing if the letter assigned to a horse was static, i.e. once it was given, was it always the same, or, did it change from race to race, or, from year to year?
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Old 10-02-2014, 03:42 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Yes, that was a real example. According to Brisnet, they don't consider finish positions or finish B/Ls, only 1st and 2nd call positions and B/Ls.

The method I use needs to know how a horse "normally" runs, not only how it runs when it has a "good" race ("good" normally means 1st, 2nd, or 3rd and B/Ls of 2 or less, and I never assume any horse is going to run his "good" race). When horses have only 1 or 2 of those races (or none), and they were in the distant past, they do me no good.
If they really don't consider the finish (or filter by it in any way), then I would say the logic of making that an "E" would be something like, "When it DID contend for the lead (bl <= 1.0), it did it at the first call, therefore E. It did not contend for the lead in any other race and those races were not considered." If it had not had that most recent race, probably would have gotten an NA (unknown). It is very likely the rules are different for horses with only a few races (and/or possibly maidens generally) and so you'll see apparent inconsistencies or what seems like guessing (because it is) compared to those horses with more of a record.

Still, I don't see how they can discount the finish totally, or at least use it as a filter. It would be possible to reverse engineer if you had enough data examples...

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Old 10-02-2014, 04:49 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
I'm surprised to hear that BRIS running styles might differ from Quirin. Including Giles' PC style in the mix is an improvement IMHO.
If I remember, Quirin only used E, P, and S styles, while Brisnet uses E, E/P, P,and S, so obviously they are not the same. Brisnet also uses both the 1st and 2nd calls for their running styles, while I think Quirin only uses one or the other but not both, for his running style calculations.

Both Brisnet and Quirin use only the 1st call for their early speed point calculations.
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Old 10-02-2014, 04:59 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GameTheory
If they really don't consider the finish (or filter by it in any way), then I would say the logic of making that an "E" would be something like, "When it DID contend for the lead (bl <= 1.0), it did it at the first call, therefore E. It did not contend for the lead in any other race and those races were not considered." If it had not had that most recent race, probably would have gotten an NA (unknown). It is very likely the rules are different for horses with only a few races (and/or possibly maidens generally) and so you'll see apparent inconsistencies or what seems like guessing (because it is) compared to those horses with more of a record.

Still, I don't see how they can discount the finish totally, or at least use it as a filter. It would be possible to reverse engineer if you had enough data examples...
Yeah, I thought of that, that they use a slightly different method for lightly raced horses. And, I agree that the only way an "E" could have been assigned to that horse was because it was a length behind at the 1st call in that one race. I can live with that, as E horses seem to be the easiest style to assign and the anomalies are much fewer than the other styles. For example, many of the E/P horses could qualify as an E horse (many of them having races in which they were 1st at both the 1st and 2nd call, but for some reason Brisnet assigns them an "E/P" instead. This leads me to assume they are using all of a horse's races, or at least the last 10 or so, and looking for the most frequently occurring styles for those races from which to assign their current running style.
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Old 10-02-2014, 05:36 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by raybo
Yeah, I thought of that, that they use a slightly different method for lightly raced horses. And, I agree that the only way an "E" could have been assigned to that horse was because it was a length behind at the 1st call in that one race. I can live with that, as E horses seem to be the easiest style to assign and the anomalies are much fewer than the other styles. For example, many of the E/P horses could qualify as an E horse (many of them having races in which they were 1st at both the 1st and 2nd call, but for some reason Brisnet assigns them an "E/P" instead. This leads me to assume they are using all of a horse's races, or at least the last 10 or so, and looking for the most frequently occurring styles for those races from which to assign their current running style.
I believe I read some place that BRIS never changes a running style after they assign one. They assign the rating after the first race in the horse shows something. A horse that runs dead last all the way around the track in its first start does not get one. A horse in its first start that pops out on top will get an "E" even if it fades to last. The "E/P" looks like it goes to horses that are 2nd or 3rd in the that early race and fade. The "P" goes to a horse who runs like an "E/P" early but closes. The "S" goes to a horse that close in that rated race. Like I said before, I don't think BRIS changes the rating ever(at least I have seen it if they do), the horse do and sometimes BRIS is wrong, but they are right a surprising amount of the time.
Giles's method is by far the best method I have seen for determining the way the horse wants to run. The problem is that a horse is not always fast enough to run the way it wants to. Most of the time jockey has no say in what way the horse will run and most horses want the lead, but some will settle for second or third if they have to, but only if they have to. Some won't and will battle tooth and nail for the lead if they are not quite a bit slower than the other horse. That something most handicappers have trouble figuring out.
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Old 10-02-2014, 06:24 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I believe I read some place that BRIS never changes a running style after they assign one. They assign the rating after the first race in the horse shows something. A horse that runs dead last all the way around the track in its first start does not get one. A horse in its first start that pops out on top will get an "E" even if it fades to last. The "E/P" looks like it goes to horses that are 2nd or 3rd in the that early race and fade. The "P" goes to a horse who runs like an "E/P" early but closes. The "S" goes to a horse that close in that rated race. Like I said before, I don't think BRIS changes the rating ever(at least I have seen it if they do), the horse do and sometimes BRIS is wrong, but they are right a surprising amount of the time.
Giles's method is by far the best method I have seen for determining the way the horse wants to run. The problem is that a horse is not always fast enough to run the way it wants to. Most of the time jockey has no say in what way the horse will run and most horses want the lead, but some will settle for second or third if they have to, but only if they have to. Some won't and will battle tooth and nail for the lead if they are not quite a bit slower than the other horse. That something most handicappers have trouble figuring out.
So, are you saying that, without having a database of every horse's races, one will never duplicate their Brisnet running style assignments? That would severely hamper my efforts, to say the least.

Maybe if I started with it's most distant race in the last 10, and worked forward. I have been doing it the opposite way, for obvious reasons. Many horses' styles DO change over time.

By the way, if every horse wants the lead, then you'd have a heck of a scramble for it in every race, which is not the case. Almost any horse alive can run 22 or less for a quarter mile. The jockey does have some say in how they run, he does have hands and feet after all. That being said, some horses want to lead, others want to run with the leader, others want to be buried nice and safe in the middle of the pack, and some just don't care for the pack at all.
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Old 10-02-2014, 06:49 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
If I remember, Quirin only used E, P, and S styles, while Brisnet uses E, E/P, P,and S, so obviously they are not the same. Brisnet also uses both the 1st and 2nd calls for their running styles, while I think Quirin only uses one or the other but not both, for his running style calculations.

Both Brisnet and Quirin use only the 1st call for their early speed point calculations.
Too much to remember. I'll find my old Quirin book and look it up when I get some time.
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