Article on superfectas

[cj]

Worth a read I thought...

http://www.danonymousracing.com/past...tember-9-2014/

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by cj

Worth a read I thought...

http://www.danonymousracing.com/past...tember-9-2014/

He suggests using ALL X ALL for the bottom two spots of the super, an approach we have discussed extensively in the past. Thask, who I view as an expert on supers, never hits the ALL button and I have to agree with him, that doing so, simply indicates that you do not have a clear opinion and you should probably either pass or find a different bet.

Personaly, I almost never bet supers (and same applies for P5 – P6), but after some very extensive conversations with Thask, I followed his method about supers, showing some interesting results...

[cj]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

He suggests using ALL X ALL for the bottom two spots of the super, an approach we have discussed extensively in the past. Thask, who I view as an expert on supers, never hits the ALL button and I have to agree with him, that doing so, simply indicates that you do not have a clear opinion and you should probably either pass or find a different bet.

Personaly, I almost never bet supers (and same applies for P5 – P6), but after some very extensive conversations with Thask, I followed his method about supers, showing some interesting results...

I don't have a lot of experience with supers, but I do tend to agree with the author that trying to handicap horses that will run 3rd and 4th is an exercise in futility. It could be that you get an edge just banking on the public betting the 3/4 slots as being the 3rd/4th best horses.

Whether betting all/all beats just betting exactas in the long run I don't know. Obviously there is a big difference in takeout on the bets most places, but I think that is evened out if you are getting rebates.

[HUSKER55]

thanks for the post!

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't have a lot of experience with supers, but I do tend to agree with the author that trying to handicap horses that will run 3rd and 4th is an exercise in futility. It could be that you get an edge just banking on the public betting the 3/4 slots as being the 3rd/4th best horses.

As said before, neither do I have lots of experience with supers and I think that exactly the fact that handicapping for 4th is impossible is the reason why we decided not to specialize on it...

[Greyfox]

Interesting article, but are trifectas and supers really the best way to go?

Most race tracks takeout rates are higher on those exotics.

For example, NYRA posts the following:

TAKEOUT INFORMATION
Takeout (percentage of each dollar wagered retained by racetrack)
• 15 percent – Pick 6 (non carryover pools)
• 15 percent – Pick 5
• 16 percent – Win, Place, Show
• 18.5 percent – Exacta, Quinella, Daily Double
• 24 percent – Trifecta, Superfecta, Grand Slam, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6 (carryover pools)

For tri's and supers
Assiniboia Downs takes out 29%
Calder 27%
Gulfstream 26 %


The rates for most North American tracks are on a chart at the following link:
http://www.sportsbettingacumen.com/h...eout-chart.asp

[cj]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Interesting article, but are trifectas and supers really the best way to go?

Most race tracks takeout rates are higher on those exotics.

For example, NYRA posts the following:

TAKEOUT INFORMATION
Takeout (percentage of each dollar wagered retained by racetrack)
• 15 percent – Pick 6 (non carryover pools)
• 15 percent – Pick 5
• 16 percent – Win, Place, Show
• 18.5 percent – Exacta, Quinella, Daily Double
• 24 percent – Trifecta, Superfecta, Grand Slam, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6 (carryover pools)

For tri's and supers
Assiniboia Downs takes out 29%
Calder 27%
Gulfstream 26 %


The rates for most North American tracks are on a chart at the following link:
http://www.sportsbettingacumen.com/h...eout-chart.asp

I did address that point...with rebates, I assume they are very close. Here is an example from Assiniboia...

Exacta 26% Rebate 16.75% Net 9.25%
Superf 29% Rebate 19.75% Net 9.25%

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

As said before, neither do I have lots of experience with supers and I think that exactly the fact that handicapping for 4th is impossible is the reason why we decided not to specialize on it...

Sometimes handicapping for 3rd or 4th is easier than handicapping a winner. Just as someone builds a ticket around their top choice to win they could just as easily build a ticket around a 3rd or 4th place horse.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Sometimes handicapping for 3rd or 4th is easier than handicapping a winner. Just as someone builds a ticket around their top choice to win they could just as easily build a ticket around a 3rd or 4th place horse.

I dont now about that... You see, a horse who might come 3rd is also possible to end up on the top spots as well something that does not apply to the winner..

Some examples?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I dont now about that... You see, a horse who might come 3rd is also possible to end up on the top spots as well something that does not apply to the winner..

Some examples?

Andy's right.

The difference between a super and a tri is the 4th spot only. its one extra spot. But, if you're "ALLing" that 4th spot, you're not taking advantage of the only difference between tri's and supers....if you "all" the 4th spot, you're essentially betting a more expensive tri.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I dont now about that... You see, a horse who might come 3rd is also possible to end up on the top spots as well something that does not apply to the winner..

A horse who might win might end up in the 3rd or 4th spot also. I don't follow your logic. There are an equal number of bad results for a horse that you pick to win versus a horse that you pick for 3rd or 4th.

I would also suggest that the reason people say you can't handicap the 3rd or 4th horse is because they haven't really studied it or made an effort to do so. As I stated in the betting execution thread, I need to do something different than other bettors and not go down the well worn trails.

[classhandicapper]

I know less than nothing about triples and supers. This could all be wrong, but I'm stating to get my feet wet.

I don't see much upside in betting triples and supers unless I have a value oriented opinion on a longshot that's unlikely to win but reasonably likely to run 3rd or 4th.

If I don't have an opinion extending down that far, I'll just play the exacta. Maybe a lot of people over handicap trying to find that 3rd or 4th slot, but a lot of people hit the all button and are just praying to get lucky. IMO, there's no value or upside to that.

The type of horse I'm looking for might be one I know is a lot better than he looks on paper, but several horses in the race are clearly better. I used to bet those to win/place or in exactas and watch a lot of them run 3rd or 4th.

Now, I might construct a triple or super ticket with less money on top than the lower ranks (but still have it on top in case he wins). I'm trying to focus on getting that 20-1 shot in the ticket with the best horses to create the value. The one thing I would want to make sure is that he's not a speed horse that could get used up and finish up the track trying to win.

[Tom]

Seems to me that the degree of randomness is greater in the third slot than the top slot, and greater in the fourth slot than the third slot. Many of the horse that run 3-4 are not"gettable" so the "All" button is a way to handle that probability of the ungettable horses. Those hose are what generate the huge payoffs.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Tom

Seems to me that the degree of randomness is greater in the third slot than the top slot, and greater in the fourth slot than the third slot. Many of the horse that run 3-4 are not"gettable" so the "All" button is a way to handle that probability of the ungettable horses. Those hose are what generate the huge payoffs.

Of course this is what I am refering to. Obsioulsy from a strictly combinatorics view each starter has the same chance to end-up in any position. The key word here is "handicapping" which implies exactly that we do not assign the same chance for each horse to end-up to any position... Still, I cannot say that I fully understand the problem and I might be wrong, maybe I need to think a bit deeper...

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't see much upside in betting triples and supers unless I have a value oriented opinion on a longshot that's unlikely to win but reasonably likely to run 3rd or 4th.

Most horse bettors have a hard time keying a longshot on top in a vertical bet but they have no problem using them in the 3rd or 4th position in a trifecta or superfecta. It often creates value for lower odds horses in those spots.

For example, if you were considering throwing out a short priced favorite and betting exactas with your contenders I would recommend also betting trifectas using the favorite in the 3rd hole. The leverage you get on the bet in most cases is greater than the probability of the favorite running 3rd.