HONG KONG – SHA TIN MON 4/5

[Nitro]

Good evening to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

I’ll be posting my pre-race selections for this very competitive race card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM MON EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis have come up with my preliminary picks for each race. However, I’ll be only posting live selections this morning because the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these entries and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. A few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Wait until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).

Good Luck if you’re playing!
.

[Nitro]

Preliminary Selections for ALL 10 races:

R#1-1200M C4 (6F)T…..........9-1-8 W/ 10-14-6

R#2- 2000M C1 (10F)T…………1-6-4 W/ 9-3

R#3– 1600M GR2 (8F)T…….….1-2-5 W/

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T…………..1-10-12 W/ 3-2-5

R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T……………5-11-6W/ 9-8-3

R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T……………1-11-2 W/ 7-8-13

R#7– 1600M C4 (8F)T…………..4-6-3 W/ 5-1-12

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T…………...2-8-5 W/ 6-7-3

R#9- 1200M GR2 (6F)T……….…3-2-11 W/ 12-4-8

R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T…………...2-4-11 W/ 13-10-6

Live Video:
https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/...=livestreaming
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[Nitro]

R#1-1200M C4 (6F)T…...........9-1-8 W/ 10-14-6

1-8-11-2– Dutch WIN 80% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $31.70 Quinella

[Nitro]

UPDATE---R#2- 2000M C1 (10F)T…..1-3-9 W/ 6-2

[Hypnotist1]

I had 1 6 9 2 3 was dead in last 5 minutes

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE---R#2- 2000M C1 (10F)T…..1-3-9 W/ 6-2

1-6-9-2 – Dutch WIN 72% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $18.10 Quinella & $81.20 Triple BX & ($245.40 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!

[Hypnotist1]

3 dead in combo pool and win pool Toss

[Hypnotist1]

Nitro don't your numbers show 3 getting worse at your last reading of 3 mtp

[Hypnotist1]

1 6 9 2 3 0 2 mtp


1 6 2 9 3 0 5 mtp


1 9 6 3 2 0 8 mtp


1 3 6 9 2 0 15 mtp

[Hypnotist1]

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Odds #
2.9 2.5 1.8 3.2 3.8 3.1 1.8 1
2.2 1.1 2.6 1.2 0.9 1.1
8.3 7.9 10.6 14.0 10.0 4.1 6.0 3
0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6
4.6 5.7 9.0 5.4 1.4 7.4 3.5 6
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 3.6 0.4
4.4 4.2 6.8 3.5 7.2 4.2 4.5 9
0.7 1.4 0.9 1.3 0.7 1.1
6.6 5.7 7.9 5.4 12.6 6.8 5.0 2
0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.1


see 3 odds go up

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

Nitro don't your numbers show 3 getting worse at your last reading of 3 mtp

Yes they do, but I'm still waiting for Time Warp to steal another one and I wasn't looking much past #1. #3 pumped up the Dutch Win %.

[Hypnotist1]

# Odds 19 18 17 16 15
2 0.5 1.2 0.5 2.2 1.1 2.4
2 0.5 0.9 4.7 0.9 5.6 1.4
1 2.5 3.8 6.2 7.3 2.5 3.0
1 2.5 1.8 0.7 2.1 0.7 5.9
5 5.0 5.7 14.6 11.6 9.7 13.5
5 5.0 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.3
4 13.0 8.5 11.3 2.9 13.0 5.4
4 13.0 0.2 1.5 6.5 0.6 2.2
6 22.0 9.9 28.9 3.2 11.5 3.4
6 22.0 0.8 0.8 3.4 0.7 4.8


4 pounded early

[Nitro]

R#3– 1600M GR2 (8F)T…….….1-2-5 W/

4-1-5-6– Dutch LOSS 0% Profit Margin - PASSED / Not much action on the LS Winner #4

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

# Odds
4 pounded early

Not when compared with the 1, 2 & 5!!!

[Hypnotist1]

Well I guess a 2.9 odds plunge at 17 mtp from a opening odds at 20 mtp of 13 is no action on the winner #4