America's Day At The Races

[Redboard]

Use this thread to discuss anything related to this show that is currently running on weekends(THU-SUN) on FOX sports TV. Including comments about the show’s announcers, format, tracks being covered, races, etc. What's your opinion of the show, with its two track format? I really like it.

Here’s my take on today’s race 6 at Belmont, Friday 3:59pm.

Optional Claimer N2L for F&M three-year-olds and up, 9 furlongs on inner turf, field of eight.

Noor Sahara 3/1
I Ortiz/Chad Brown
This is Chad Browns world, everyone else is just passing through. This filly is running her first U.S. race after spending her entire career in La République where she earned two wins in eight starts. Her last three races were unspectacular and if it weren’t for the Trainer, would be double digits. Interesting enough her two wins were at the front end so look for her to TRY to wire this field.

Miss Munnings 4/1
J.Velazquez/Kimmel
Nothing to dislike about this 7-yr-old mare, with four wins out of her last six. Would be the chalk if it weren’t for Him. The only reason she qualifies for this N2L is the fact that she’s up for a tag. No luck stepping up in her last outing, but still scored a decent beyer.

Eliade 9/2
J Rosario/Chad Brown
Another French import that has had eight career races with two wins. This one is coming off a win last out. And as with Noor Sahara, her two wins were on the lead. Seems a little strange that He would enter two speedsters in the same race, but what do I know.
If you are looking to toss Him, He’s only 17% with shippers from Europe(1st N.A.).

Wegetsdamunnys 5/1
J Alvarado/ Clement
Deepest closer in the field here, so if you like those that come storming home at the last minute, this is your gal. Has done very well at this level but in her last four races, all stakes races, she just ran out of ground. Likes the soft stuff so pay attention to the weather(which is rated as good). The distance looks fine for her, she’s done well before at it and besides I like closers shortening up a little bit. Trainer is good at the long layoff (21%), almost as good as Him(28%).


Beau Belle 10/1
M.Franco/Albertrani
Dropping down in class from her last three outings which were all stakes. Draw a line through her last effort where she clipped heels. Scored her best Beyer at this track last year in a Grade 1. With the right trip, could be a contender.

Vortex Road 15/1
K.Carmouche/Levine
24 career starts for this plucky 6-yr-old mare with seven firsts, the last three wins on this course. If you like the “horse-for-the-course” angle, this is your gal. Will probably be more like 25-1 at post.

Matty's Magnum 15/1
D.Davis/Donk
Hasn’t won since 11/2018, with only one third place finish in that time.

Pace
The & duo will be out in front. has some speed but is more of the presser type.

Bets
To try to beat Him, or not to try to beat Him, that is the question. Well there’s no value putting either of His entries on top, so I’ll play for one of them to come in second, and the other to fade.

WIN
,

EXACTA
, / ,

TRIFECTA
, / , / , , ,

[Redboard]

Forgot

Beale Street 8/1
Castellano/ Matz
Did not fare well last race, a G3, starting from the rail. One can’t ignore JJ aboard in a turf race, but has much less experience at Belmont than most here, so I’m going to pass.

[Suff]

I thought they’d bet miss munnings to 5/2. Chad horses bet to 8/5 & 3-1 is a tell, but Miss Munnings beat some string fields 4-1 almost fair.

[Redboard]

Optional Claimer N2X for three-year-olds & up, state bred, 6 furlongs on dirt, field of nine.

Belmont, Friday June 19th, 5:04pm
Race 8

Eye Luv Lulu 5-2
J.Lezcano/R.Atras
ML favorite is also the oldest horse in the field (age 9), and has had 56 lifetime starts with 11 wins, 12 seconds, 8 thirds. Earned his connections over $900k — one would think that that would be enough — and yet he’s up for a tag here(needed to qualify). I guess things are tough all over.
As far as his chances, this is the lowest level he’s been at in his career. There were two Optional Claimers since 1/1/2019, but they were against open competition, this is a state bred. But his last race in February, was his worst finish in three years along with his worst beyer, and he is nine years old. Another thing to consider is that this is his first race without Jason Servis as his trainer. toss

Leaky Cup 4-1
J.Alvarado/J.Kimmel
Speedster that’s been having problems finishing since he’s been in Kimmel’s barn (last four races). The race before that, his last win, gate-to-wire, came in the slop at Saratoga, earned him a career-best 92 Beyer. But if the surface is dry on Friday, he’s in my toss pile (forecast calls for no rain, although it’s been somewhat unpredictable lately). toss

The Caretaker 4-1
L.Saez/T.Morley
Since 1/1/2019, owns the highest Beyer in the field— a 97 he scored on 12/29/2019 at AQU at the N1X level. His last race, a 2nd place finish, saw him almost catch at the wire, but he ran out of ground. Like all closers the race has to be set up for him. Tried stepping up, three-back, to no avail. With 30 career starts, he’s been running exclusively at NYRA tracks and of his six lifetime wins, only one came at Belmont. He did better at AQU and SAR. But if all goes well, he certainly has a shot.

Summer Bourbon 9-2
J.Rosario/R.Rodriguez
Had two nice wins in Feb. , off for 90 days, then Rudy ran him against open competition 12 days ago, for some reason. Most likely, he felt that the horse “needed one” after the layoff. The short rest this time concerns me, but Rudy has a good record (25%) for second time off the bench.

Steam Engine 8-1
J.Ortiz/B.Cox
Of his seven lifetime starts, he has two wins both at this track. Been off for the last eight months. His only effort at a N2X, two races back, was a bomb. toss

Castle Casanova 10-1
M.Franco/J.Englehart
Has been off for the last four months. “Spotty” workout pattern, with only three works since May first. Toss.

Kazmania 10-1
T.McCarthy/E.Jones
Another coming off a long, four-month rest. Low percentage trainer with zero wins at this layoff. toss

Nueva York 15-1
K.Carmouche/D.Cannizzo
Seven lifetime races with steadily improving Beyers. In his last four races, he’s hit-the-board , with two wins.

Frosted Ice 15-1
D.Davis/J Chapman
Career certainly started off with a bang as a two-year-old — broke his maiden at Saratoga then followed it up with a stakes win at Belmont, the following month. Only three efforts as a three-year-old, all bad, which brings us to his three races in 2020. Not much better. Even if you draw a line thru his last effort at CD, on the turf, his other two efforts won’t get it done here. toss

Pace
, , & should be battling for the lead.

Bets

WIN
, ,

EXACTA
, , / , , ,

TRIFECTA
, , / , , , / , , ,

[Tom]

NBC has racing from 3-6 pm.....does that mean no ADATR for three hours, or is NBC covering CD as well?

I like the CD card but the Belmont card has nothing I care to play other than the 10th.

[Redboard]

Probably. Looks like it's TVG2 only for CD. Which is ok, but sometimes my roku stick wont let me log onto tvg/tvg2 for some reason.

[hopbet]

ALCON:
FS1 will have coverage 11:30am till 2pm

HOPBET

[Tom]

Looks like NY only?

What is their hurry today- why start so early with no crowd?
Woody Stephens a disappointing race - typical Bel Stake - short field, no competition. One horse goes out, the rest social
distance.

Third looks to be a 2 horse races, but I'm taking a shot on the Forever Changed. But not a much of a bet - not much of a race.

[Robert Fischer]

getting warmed up and have 10 things going on at once

Good thread, will try to participate.

[Robert Fischer]

Decorated Invader is thought of as a Breeders' Cup type of horse.


This isn't a terrible field.

[Tom]

Using TFUS figs converted to Quirin, here is the Belmont Stakes
Par is 107-107, using the [13] in the race heading as the par


106-106
103-106 / 104-106
111-107 / 90/97
104-97
111-106
114-110 / 105-108
107-105
106-107

[burnsy]

Is NBC just talking heads only for hours? I bet the 7 th race at Belmont and never saw the thing. Good thing cause it was a debacle betting wise. But why even be on if you’re not showing the races? Did they run when I took a piss or got a beer? Back to the other channel, these guys just like hearing themselves talk for hours. Did I miss the race? C’mon man !

[Tom]

Looks the best in this one

Strong pace fig for a closer - I like horses like this. Good late pace figs, but will he be too far back or use some his pace to stay closer - he did pair up TF figs in his last to - ready to move ahead?

good numbers in last, but it was a while ago - can he improve on them of works alone?

Good TF late pace, but his jockey is new to the big Belmont track and I don't like his changes too much against him and not enough "horse" to look like he can overcome - but a shot for gimmicks.

Not much difference in the rest.

Odds will make the bets for me.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Is NBC just talking heads only for hours? I bet the 7 th race at Belmont and never saw the thing. Good thing cause it was a debacle betting wise. But why even be on if you’re not showing the races? Did they run when I took a piss or got a beer? Back to the other channel, these guys just like hearing themselves talk for hours. Did I miss the race? C’mon man !

NBC coverage is the WORST it has ever been - jut ignoring actual races for idiots jabbering about BS. Total IQ of the entire crew is under 30.

NYRA put together a sub-par card and arranged it to put shit races in the TV slot - really smart more. Graded stake going of just after noon - whoop di doo.


Worst Belmont day card I can remember, production and content.

We were better off with OP running with Tampa.

[Tom]

Finally a good race in the Jaiper. Last to first in the nick of time.