Stock Market Prediction

[highnote]

VL at 6050. That's a buy signal.

Now... what to buy?

[AltonKelsey]

Absolutely, no reason to rush in at the bottom, thats for gamblers


Now that we are 100 ES points higher in a heartbeat, lets start buying NOW!!!!!

[highnote]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Absolutely, no reason to rush in at the bottom, thats for gamblers


Now that we are 100 ES points higher in a heartbeat, lets start buying NOW!!!!!

I picked up some OAKMX for my wife. Not sure what else to buy. I've been so busy with work that I haven't had time to look for stocks.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by highnote

VL at 6050. That's a buy signal.

Now... what to buy?

BRK-B is still relatively cheap at 207. I may buy some more of that. It's not likely to be a 10 banger, but it's probably a safe bet in a long-term retirement account.

[ReplayRandall]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savi...cid=spartanntp

The 'Buffett Yardstick' may be signaling the worst risk-reward setup ever

Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) says it’s “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

The “Buffett Yardstick,” as longtime money manager Jesse Felder of the Felder Report calls it, plots the total value of the stock market against the overall size of the economy. What makes it so valuable, he says, is that it’s good at telling investors what to expect from equities going forward.

What’s it telling them now?

“All of this leveraged speculation must at some point be unwound, usually via forced selling during a bear market,” he wrote. “The last two times it came even close to the current level the stock market suffered 50% declines.”

Felder warned that this time around, the pieces are in place for an even bigger drop. “In all, long-term investors are risking roughly a 60% decline to try to capture a 0% rate of return over the coming decade in the stock market, one of the worst risk-to-reward setups in history,” he wrote in a blog post.

[Half Smoke]

Nobody can predict market moves - nobody - not Jessie Felder or anyone else

poker writer David Sklansky called some poker players "freaks" - they start winning and keep on winning from the moment they sit down

in trading there are some "freaks" also - those who make tons of money trading while so many others fail - but their predictions are usually very short term and involve individual stocks not the entire market

the best the most of us can do is ride along with the market's well proven long term upward bias - with quality and a buy and hold strategy of well diversified mutual funds

personally, for me, it's index funds - I only buy - I never sell

there is an exception if I need funds for personal use to avoid paying exorbitant interest

[barn32]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

Nobody can predict market moves - nobody - not Jessie Felder or anyone else

[reckless]

I believe over 80 per cent of money managers fail to beat the broader market indexes, such as the Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the like.

I understand the article Randall posted but that emphasized beating the general, broader stock markets. Buffett isn't alone in achieving market-beating returns but is one of a select few, for sure. Buffett may (correctly) believe the overall market is expensive but he is regularly buying stock as we speak.

Selective investing of undervalued, individual companies mispriced in the market could provide better long term results than solely buying the general market such as the S&P or Russell.

I emphasize the words selective, undervalued and mispriced stocks, of course.

PS--I know Buffett isn't the subject of Randall's link, Felder is, but he is at the core of the story.

[Half Smoke]

Buffett is now saying that a person would do as well with the S&P index as they would with his Berkshire


from the article:


"Notwithstanding Buffett’s value-hunting prowess and dramatic lifetime outperformance, Berkshire has over the last 10 years underperformed the S&P 500 — the broad market index that tracks the largest stocks in the American economy."



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/buff...berkshire.html

[ReplayRandall]

Berkshire currently has over $112 Billion cash on hand, the most ever held by the company.....There's a huge reason why Buffett and Munger are currently situated like this....Big discounted buying opportunities are in the immediate horizon.

Bottom-line, the recent yield curve inverted Bond Market is about to blow, thus the dominoes(Housing and Stock Markets) will all start to fall....No exact date or month for the trigger. The FED will have few options to stop the events coming, if any.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Berkshire currently has over $112 Billion cash on hand, the most ever held by the company.....There's a huge reason why Buffett and Munger are currently situated like this....Big discounted buying opportunities are in the immediate horizon.

Bottom-line, the recent yield curve inverted Bond Market is about to blow, thus the dominoes(Housing and Stock Markets) will all start to fall....No exact date or month for the trigger. The FED will have few options to stop the events coming, if any.

Didn't you say that you would resist the urge to make any more prognostications?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Didn't you say that you would resist the urge to make any more prognostications?

No exact date or month for the trigger.

Does that look like a prediction?...Don't waste my time.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

No exact date or month for the trigger.

Does that look like a prediction?...Don't waste my time.

Sorry. In view of your extended vacation from here, I should have been aware of how valuable your time is.

[barn32]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Sorry. In view of your extended vacation from here, I should have been aware of how valuable your time is.

Touche!

[reckless]

Originally Posted by barn32

What's been the performance from 2007 to 2018/19?