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05-13-2019, 10:42 AM
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#886
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
The yield curve just inverted again.
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I just checked bloomberg. They say 3-mo is 2.40 and 10 year is 2.41. Close to inverted, but not quite.
When were your rates last updated?
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05-13-2019, 10:47 AM
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#887
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
I just checked bloomberg. They say 3-mo is 2.40 and 10 year is 2.41. Close to inverted, but not quite.
When were your rates last updated?
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30 seconds ago. Link.
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05-13-2019, 10:57 AM
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#888
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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What are the bonds used for the benchmark -- 3mo/10yr or 3mo/30yr?
bloomberg now shows 3mo and 10yr both at 2.40
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05-13-2019, 11:57 AM
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#889
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
What are the bonds used for the benchmark -- 3mo/10yr or 3mo/30yr?
bloomberg now shows 3mo and 10yr both at 2.40
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3 mo/10yr
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05-13-2019, 11:59 AM
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#890
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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The sell signal was the onset of Trump's full-blown trade war. Remember, though, we're always only one tweet away from a big rally (or another 10% correction).
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05-13-2019, 12:22 PM
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#891
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Tim Knight did a pretty spot on analysis of the trade wars vis-a-vis the markets. Interesting read.
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05-14-2019, 08:58 AM
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#892
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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I got 3 sell signals yesterday from my model. I am going 33% into cash until this tariff dispute blows over. It is causing a lot of uncertainty which results in volatility. In the long run the market has a lot of headroom, but in the short run there could be a correction. If it takes a big dip then I'll be on the sideline with cash to jump back in at bargain prices. If it reverses course today and starts to rise I'll still be in a good shape and will just be taking some profits and taking some money off the table.
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05-28-2019, 02:49 PM
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#893
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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very quiet here
guess everyone is watching their SFOR , aka the Greatest Stock In The World holdings
long and strong!
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05-28-2019, 02:52 PM
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#894
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,533
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
very quiet here
guess everyone is watching their SFOR , aka the Greatest Stock In The World holdings
long and strong!
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What's the motivation? Before I start red carding for repetitiveness, or bullying... 
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05-28-2019, 02:57 PM
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#895
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
I got 3 sell signals yesterday from my model. I am going 33% into cash until this tariff dispute blows over. It is causing a lot of uncertainty which results in volatility. In the long run the market has a lot of headroom, but in the short run there could be a correction. If it takes a big dip then I'll be on the sideline with cash to jump back in at bargain prices. If it reverses course today and starts to rise I'll still be in a good shape and will just be taking some profits and taking some money off the table.
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this market may give you the opportunity to go long at some point soon on its way to 35,000. it may reach 22,000 first though. if right, 22 going to 35 would be a huge move within the next 4 years.
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05-28-2019, 04:44 PM
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#896
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
very quiet here
guess everyone is watching their SFOR , aka the Greatest Stock In The World holdings
long and strong!
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SP 2828 was a sell signal. I am 50% in cash niw
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05-28-2019, 04:56 PM
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#897
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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dunno, is there some parameter where we can mention this?
if it tripled, would it be ok?
-90% not ?
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06-03-2019, 07:27 AM
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#898
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
SP 2828 was a sell signal. I am 50% in cash niw
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SP is at 2743 now. Sell signal at 2828 was correct.
SP 2852 is the next buy signal.
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06-03-2019, 06:40 PM
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#899
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
SP is at 2743 now. Sell signal at 2828 was correct.
SP 2852 is the next buy signal.
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wow.
thats what, 100 s&p points away.
But you said, "If it takes a big dip then I'll be on the sideline with cash to jump back in at bargain prices"
How can you wait for a massive rally to happen , and also get back in at bargain prices ?
Maybe you meant 2752. 
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06-03-2019, 07:22 PM
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#900
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
wow.
thats what, 100 s&p points away.
But you said, "If it takes a big dip then I'll be on the sideline with cash to jump back in at bargain prices"
How can you wait for a massive rally to happen , and also get back in at bargain prices ?
Maybe you meant 2752. |
Nope. I meant what I wrote. I am on the sidelines with 50% cash in most of my accounts. If SP gets to 2852 it will still be well below its recent high.
To be honest, I use the Value Line Arithmatic Index because it is a little more sensitive than the SP, but SP is correlated with VL and SP is more well-known. So for paceadvantage purposes it is simpler to talk about the SP and its more easily understood.
Additionally, I use other indicators, but the SP and VL give off buy and sell signals most frequently.
Based on the major momentum buy signal I got in December I am still bullish. This trump noise with the tariffs will blow over eventually and the market should resume its upward trajectory, in my opinion.
I captured a lot of value from December until May and hope to do so when the trend reverses. In the meantime, no point in pissing into the wind.
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