Stock Market Prediction

[ReplayRandall]

The all-time high Royal Gold stock closing price was 138.65 on September 04, 2019.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

4/9-Reuters The IMF chief says the pandemic will unleash the worst recession since the great Depression---Sounds Bad to me...right?--Market Gapped up-highest level yet since the fall......on bad news...

.

The market ripped on Friday (4/9) b/c of the Fed's announcements (Main Street Lending Facility details; plans to buy junk debt--outrageous; and plans to purchase munis). Take a look at HYG and JNK - those a high-yield (junk) credit ETFs. That was front-running of the Fed, which will now buy high-yield credit ETFs (outrageous). We're very close to the Fed buying equities, ala Japan.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

The market ripped on Friday (4/9) b/c of the Fed's announcements (Main Street Lending Facility details; plans to buy junk debt--outrageous; and plans to purchase munis). Take a look at HYG and JNK - those a high-yield (junk) credit ETFs. That was front-running of the Fed, which will now buy high-yield credit ETFs (outrageous). We're very close to the Fed buying equities, ala Japan.

They did in 2000's under BlackRock...

They just dumped 2 trillion out and going to add more...and at SOME point there's going to be hyperinflation....everything's going up...it's they only way they can kick the can down the road....til there's a reset...

[highernote]

Is the market going higher or will we see a double-bottom?

My model got a momentum based buy signal last Monday when the Value Line Index rose 4% from it's near term low.

As you recall it was very volatile in the weeks preceding last week. There were other buy and sell signals during these weeks.

I'm cautiously long, with 75% cash on the sidelines. I might go to 50% cash. I'll see what happens this week. Things are often better leading up to a holiday. Investors are oftentimes in a good mood as the long holiday weekend approaches.

[PaceAdvantage]

S&P Futures gapped up about 35 points above Thursday's close, but have been in a steady plunge ever since, and now about 50 points lower than Thursday's close (about 400-500 DOW points lower).

Not surprising considering the powers that be continue to try and prolong this shit as much as they can....and then there's all the economic damage and uncertainty the market has YET to process....

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

S&P Futures gapped up about 35 points above Thursday's close, but have been in a steady plunge ever since, and now about 50 points lower than Thursday's close (about 400-500 DOW points lower).

Not surprising considering the powers that be continue to try and prolong this shit as much as they can....and then there's all the economic damage and uncertainty the market has YET to process....

Our economy looks to be wrecked for a good while. What is food going to cost, I see farmers with crops rotting already? The bailout is covering them to some extent, but not the consumers paying for the wreckage. The commodities market will be like the Wild West.

[highernote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

S&P Futures gapped up about 35 points above Thursday's close, but have been in a steady plunge ever since, and now about 50 points lower than Thursday's close (about 400-500 DOW points lower).

Not surprising considering the powers that be continue to try and prolong this shit as much as they can....and then there's all the economic damage and uncertainty the market has YET to process....

SP500 on Friday was up 24.6% since March 23. It is probably good to blow off a little steam.

[FakeNameChanged]

GS announces that they think the market has reached a bottom, and the market drops 500+ pts. at this time. Maybe the market doesn't listen to their good news. Thanks GS

Our call of the day, from a team of Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin, says the worst of the market rout is behind us. A “previous near-term downside of 2000 [for the S&P 500] is no longer likely. Our year-end S&P 500 target remains 3000 (+8%),” says the team in a note to clients on Monday.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm gonna say this again.

We are now at a point on the daily chart (maybe just a little higher than where we are now...but close enough regardless) where we could EASILY see this thing turn to the downside and test the lows of this COVID-19 collapse...and then move way below that...but for now, I'll just talk about testing the lows.

In fact, the timing is right, economically...the market has been rebounding on news of the virus itself starting its retreat...new infections seem to be on the downtrend, for the most part, worldwide...although 4/14 was higher for the US than 4/13 in terms of number of new infections...but the US is still trending down along with the world in terms of new infections.

So the actual VIRUS part is losing its "market surprise effect."

Now it's time to survey the economic carnage left behind, and I don't think we're anywhere near understanding how badly the economy has been affected by all of this...which leaves PLENTY of motivation for the markets to head back down as this is revealed slowly over the coming days, weeks and months.

So be very careful...and don't think for a minute the worst is over in terms of downward pressure on the markets.

There is a HUGE unknown lurking just behind the corner...nobody has come to grips with what we have done to the economy not only here at home, but WORLDWIDE...this was a WORLDWIDE thing...it was absolutely gigantic...historic....a never before seen shock to the ENTIRE SYSTEM.

You need to wrap your heads around exactly what was done. I don't think most people realize what has happened because the media, for the most part, hasn't begun to cover the economic aftereffects of what we've done as a country and as a world.

They still want to focus on the virus itself...basically giving a courtesy nod to things like unemployment numbers etc...talking about "recession" like it's just any other ordinary recession in the economic cycle...it's certainly not.

Don't get lulled into a false sense of security just because the markets retraced 50% of the initial drop....this is a very important area of the chart and you need to stay on your toes.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I'm gonna say this again.

We are now at a point on the daily chart (maybe just a little higher than where we are now...but close enough regardless) where we could EASILY see this thing turn to the downside and test the lows of this COVID-19 collapse...and then move way below that...but for now, I'll just talk about testing the lows.

In fact, the timing is right, economically...the market has been rebounding on news of the virus itself starting its retreat...new infections seem to be on the downtrend, for the most part, worldwide...although 4/14 was higher for the US than 4/13 in terms of number of new infections...but the US is still trending down along with the world in terms of new infections.

So the actual VIRUS part is losing its "market surprise effect."

Now it's time to survey the economic carnage left behind, and I don't think we're anywhere near understanding how badly the economy has been affected by all of this...which leaves PLENTY of motivation for the markets to head back down as this is revealed slowly over the coming days, weeks and months.

So be very careful...and don't think for a minute the worst is over in terms of downward pressure on the markets.

There is a HUGE unknown lurking just behind the corner...nobody has come to grips with what we have done to the economy not only here at home, but WORLDWIDE...this was a WORLDWIDE thing...it was absolutely gigantic...historic....a never before seen shock to the ENTIRE SYSTEM.

You need to wrap your heads around exactly what was done. I don't think most people realize what has happened because the media, for the most part, hasn't begun to cover the economic aftereffects of what we've done as a country and as a world.

They still want to focus on the virus itself...basically giving a courtesy nod to things like unemployment numbers etc...talking about "recession" like it's just any other ordinary recession in the economic cycle...it's certainly not.

Don't get lulled into a false sense of security just because the markets retraced 50% of the initial drop....this is a very important area of the chart and you need to stay on your toes.

Absolutely agree, nobody knows the amount of destruction done. Tighten stops for anyone in the stock market. This will definitely not be any parabolic rise to the upside. I did hear some eonomist yesterday talk about a 10% reduction to the GDP, last week it was 40%. Their models vary as badly as the CV death toll. We're still not seeing any TP in the stores.

[lamboguy]

so far the dow has put in a CORONA low. the low that has worked 100% of the time to call dow bottoms is GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT lows which will be lower than the CORONA low.

and that is what i call a LIVING LOCK to happen.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Now it's time to survey the economic carnage left behind, and I don't think we're anywhere near understanding how badly the economy has been affected by all of this...which leaves PLENTY of motivation for the markets to head back down as this is revealed slowly over the coming days, weeks and months.

So be very careful...and don't think for a minute the worst is over in terms of downward pressure on the markets.

There is a HUGE unknown lurking just behind the corner...nobody has come to .

Completely agree. But what do Street estimates reflect? By 4Q20, the consensus has S&P 500 earnings just a smidge light of flat y/y. Barring hyperinflation, that's delusional, imo.

[Waquoit]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

That is, if the drop was due to this silly virus that people are freaking out over unnecessarily..

Bump

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Waquoit

Bump

Damn straight....HUGE drop wasn't due to virus...it was due to WHAT WE DID in response to it....not the same thing

[ReplayRandall]

Futures are a sea of red everywhere, except CHINA....I thought a second wave of CV was hitting them again?....Joke.

https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures