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Old 04-20-2021, 01:19 AM   #16
classhandicapper
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Not to infer some mystical force at work, but watching lots of races I have no interest in has convinced me of strong, momentary dynamics in play. Dynamics that can nullify race-flow, trips, strategy, and even how horses travel. And I don't think it traces to class or should necessarily influence how we interpret performance.

.
One thing to keep in mind is that we don’t have times for all the subtle 1/16th mile battle or moves that occur, subtle changes in the track condition that can occur and make the track more or less tiring during the card and then maybe back depending on what maintenance is doing, how certain horses get stressed battling, running between horses, in large fields etc.. There are things going on we sort of know about that we can’t measure and they are note the same for every horse.
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Old 04-20-2021, 06:13 AM   #17
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From the best handicapping book ever written...

Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburg Phil -- by Edward Cole (1908)

During the running of the race my glasses never leave the horses engaged. I see every move they
make. I can see that this one is not in his stride, or is running unnaturally, or is being ridden
poorly. I can see if a horse is sulking, what horse is fit, what horse is unfit. After the race is run,
it is sometimes said a horse has had a bad ride, or that the trainer has sent him to the post in an
unfit condition, or anything and everything, except the truth.
Knowing the disposition of all the good horses, I am able to say pretty clearly that the failure of a
horse to do better was due to chance, or unintelligent handling, perfectly innocent in themselves.
Possibly the jockey had given him a cut of the whip at the post, which made him sour; possibly
the track did not suit him. His post position, the size of the field or a bump in a jam may have
taken away his courage. He may have been bumped on the start, shut off, pocketed, roughed, or
interfered with in a dozen ways. Whatever it was I tried to locate the trouble and record it for the
future. Take an illustration of this - Eugenia Burch was a mare that would run an exceptionally
good race if she could have an outside position and was not bothered in any way. It was this fact
that made her somewhat erratic, as they say, in her running. In a small field, with an outside
position she could be expected to show her best form. She could run around her field very
impressively. She was naturally a slow beginner and she always had to go around her field. Now
if she were in a big field and had an inside position, where she would be bumped and knocked
about in the early stages, she would never extend herself until the coast was clear, and then it was
usually too late. Thus she had been beaten often by horses inferior to her, and there had been
some comment on that fact by persons who did not understand the mare.



What I take from this is what we're seeing during the running always needs to be viewed in context otherwise we're apt to draw incorrect conclusions. The good trip handicapper is not viewing these trips in a petri dish.
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Old 04-20-2021, 06:52 AM   #18
Andy Asaro
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From my experience there are a lot of things that I as a handicapper see that the connections sometimes don't. AND there are a lot of things that connections (jockey, trainer, owner) see and know that I as a handicapper don't know.

Just about everyone sees trouble into and through the stretch but IMO the most valuable trip/video information is in the first couple furlongs.


Good luck
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Old 04-20-2021, 09:25 AM   #19
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I think the first step for me to understanding trips at least a little better was to get away from the "time trial" model of thinking about races where you adjust the final time for the trip and switching to the individual speed, stamina, and total energy model of thinking about horses.

For example, imo it's a mistake adjust a horse's figure for ground loss because he was 4 wide. That ground loss could have been almost meaningless or it could have been brutal. It depends how much energy was consumed and the individual horse.

It's the same with pace and bias.

The impact depends on the energy consumed and the individual horse's balance between it's speed and stamina. There isn't a one size fits all formula because the horses are all different.
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Old 04-20-2021, 10:13 AM   #20
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"current form and or innate superiority trump trips, flow, and visual observation."

"winners are exploiting sharp form, that is transient, even momentary superiority."

"Who would know more about what happens and why in a horse race?"

This train of thought, along with Nitro's observations re: following money lead me to the conclusion that "intent" becomes the intangible factor. Otherwise, how could the smart money follow that transient/momentary superiority?

Intent is a pretty grey word in that it can mean a strict training regiment, untimed workouts, adjusting jockey tactics, adding equipment, or other less scrupulous tactics...which are the ones that REALLY produce the momentary superiority, IMO.

However, I can't go down that logical path or else I will become too cynical or conspiracy minded to enjoy those rare occurrences where my past performance analysis, trip handicapping, and physical observations lead me to a winner.

(That being said, I no longer ignore money flow in the WPS and EXA pools anymore...because I'm not going to cut off my nose to spite my face)
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Old 04-20-2021, 10:52 AM   #21
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I think the first step for me to understanding trips at least a little better was to get away from the "time trial" model of thinking about races where you adjust the final time for the trip and switching to the individual speed, stamina, and total energy model of thinking about horses.

For example, imo it's a mistake adjust a horse's figure for ground loss because he was 4 wide. That ground loss could have been almost meaningless or it could have been brutal. It depends how much energy was consumed and the individual horse.

It's the same with pace and bias.

The impact depends on the energy consumed and the individual horse's balance between it's speed and stamina. There isn't a one size fits all formula because the horses are all different.
I opened one show last season by advising viewers to avoid "quantifying" trips.
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Old 04-20-2021, 11:51 AM   #22
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Guys, I'm talking about how many races-and winning trips, in particular-defy conventional thought on cause and effect during the running. And I'm not at all sure that trotting out our most personalized and advanced theories on visuals can really address this.
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Old 04-20-2021, 11:54 AM   #23
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One thing to keep in mind is that we don’t have times for all the subtle 1/16th mile battle or moves that occur, subtle changes in the track condition that can occur and make the track more or less tiring during the card and then maybe back depending on what maintenance is doing, how certain horses get stressed battling, running between horses, in large fields etc.. There are things going on we sort of know about that we can’t measure and they are note the same for every horse.
Start by trying to predict the winner 3 fur out. I mean during races you have no interest in nor preconceptions concerning. You'll be wrong far more often than you might expect. And that hinted, to me at least, of dynamics in play we know little of.
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Old 04-20-2021, 12:09 PM   #24
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race watching is a source of useful info, and is a significant model


most races are driven by a few things rather than many little things

learning curve involved in becoming competent at race watching

once competent, the biggest pitfalls are cognitive bias, and separating significant absolutes, from abstract eye-tests

the 'value' stuff is an ever-present issue and going to be important whether you are a trip handicapper, or a pace handicapper or a class handicapper, or some polytheistic approach


Two people can watch the same race and come off with totally different insights and beliefs



One person may leave a race and say "Ohh the came back on the rail, he fought back, willing competetitor, likes to win, has another gear, put the on my watch-list for a future bet"
and another person may watch the same exact race and say "Ohh the hung in the stretch, he had a good setup and weakened late, the was co fav and didn't break on the lead as expected, I want to put the on my watch list to see if he's a bet-against at low odds in the near future"
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Old 04-20-2021, 12:27 PM   #25
v j stauffer
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One thing has made me STACKS over the years. Betting against horses who in the previous start hung on their left lead through the stretch. It's amazing how often it signals a decline in form. GOLDEN
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Old 04-20-2021, 02:02 PM   #26
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One thing has made me STACKS over the years. Betting against horses who in the previous start hung on their left lead through the stretch. It's amazing how often it signals a decline in form. GOLDEN
Same here, sir, i am HUGE on factoring in how a horse traveled last start..but it's sooo curious to note the surprising number of horses who win on the left lead...and that very disconnect between today's race and that VERY next outing speaks somewhat to the dichotomy I alluded to..

another big no no with me is a horse that bobbles, however slightly, while in full stride...NOT a sign of soundness...


and isn't soundness the dominant undercurrent of t-bred performance that so often masquerades as "form cycles," deterioration or improvement??

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Old 04-20-2021, 02:08 PM   #27
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For example, imo it's a mistake adjust a horse's figure for ground loss because he was 4 wide. That ground loss could have been almost meaningless or it could have been brutal. It depends how much energy was consumed and the individual horse.
We see it time and again where one closer rounds the turn along an opening on the rail, while another closer takes his rally 4-wide at the same time. The horse on the outside is traveling an appreciably longer distance of ground, and in a game where races are won and lost by scant margins this can never be considered "almost meaningless", IMO. The mistake is in failing to recognize that other "dynamics" in the race hinder a horse's performance as well.

In my own handicapping I ignore nothing that's up to me to assess. If a piece of handicapping information is available to me and I consider it meaningful...then I make an allowance for it in my handicapping, in one way or another. And my biggest enemy is TIME. When horseplaying, I don't abide by the "KISS" principle.

I'll never forget what the only true professional horseplayer I've ever met told me many years ago. I asked him what separated him from me in the handicapping skill department...and his reply to me was, "How can you expect to be as good as me when I am at home studying the game while you are at a grocery store stacking bananas?" Another thing that he told me took DECADES to sink in...but it turned out to be just as accurate. "In this game, there is no profit left on the table for the hobbyist"...he kept telling me. And I kept ignoring him...to my own detriment.
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Old 04-20-2021, 04:42 PM   #28
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Start by trying to predict the winner 3 fur out. I mean during races you have no interest in nor preconceptions concerning. You'll be wrong far more often than you might expect. And that hinted, to me at least, of dynamics in play we know little of.
I'm certain I'd be wrong a LOT of the time on winners, but I think I'd be able guess where the winner was going to come from (front or back) fairly well if I handicapped the race, knew the horses and styles well, and could visually see to race to determine if the development was extreme.

A lot of my plays are related to race flow and bias either from analyzing past races (upgrades and downgrades), projecting an advantage or disadvantage today, or my preference which is an insight about both in the same race. I have a large database data I've been studying for years to refine my thinking and test ideas.

IMO it's just the nature of the game that there are some extreme setups and biases that almost dictate the results, but more often than not I think these things are only impactful enough to separate otherwise similar horses and don't help bad horses enough for them to win or stop the really superior ones.
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Old 04-20-2021, 05:06 PM   #29
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We see it time and again where one closer rounds the turn along an opening on the rail, while another closer takes his rally 4-wide at the same time. The horse on the outside is traveling an appreciably longer distance of ground, and in a game where races are won and lost by scant margins this can never be considered "almost meaningless", IMO. The mistake is in failing to recognize that other "dynamics" in the race hinder a horse's performance as well.
1. IMO, there's a huge difference in the energy cost depending on whether the horse was lollygagging in the back while wide or being "used" to maintain or improve his position while wide.

2. IMO, it's easier for horses to run faster when making wider turns on a banked surface which to some degree offsets the ground the horse is losing.

IMO, the difference between an early quarter in 26 on the rail and 26 while 3 wide for a very good horse is not particularly significant in terms of energy consumption. Either way it's just some rider holding the position he wants without using the horse.

IMO, the difference between an early quarter in 23 on the rail and 23 while 3 wide being used to maintain position can be large.

So what I suggesting is that imo the superior way of thinking about ground loss is to think in terms of the energy consumption and not the extra feet traveled. (and of course none of this takes into account how the track was playing that day)
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Old 04-20-2021, 08:07 PM   #30
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I'm certain I'd be wrong a LOT of the time on winners, but I think I'd be able guess where the winner was going to come from (front or back) fairly well if I handicapped the race, knew the horses and styles well, and could visually see to race to determine if the development was extreme.
Watch races in which you have NO knowledge of the horses. This really underscores-extreme scenarios excepted-how many events become pure battles of attrition as seemingly beaten runners re-rally, pace-occupants running under wraps fold just several strides later, and dismissed runners muster one final surge.

Horse races are gut checks that find certain runners pushing on through extreme pain and fatigue (which often has ZERO to do with "reserve racing energy") while others give in. Gut checks sometimes determined by forces we can't explain, much less predict. Gut checks that defy lots of what we hold true (myself INCLUDED..in fact, we ALL focus on flow, both past and predicted) from a visual perspective.

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