Stock Market Prediction

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Not as far as I could tell . But 140 S&P points u in two days will bring some selling. If you don't think Virus news is key see what happens if a comprehensive treatment is announced .

Didn't the president and all the state government officials warn us that this week figures to be the worst week coronavirus-wise that we have yet experienced? Do "news" get any more negative than THAT? And on the very first day of this "ultra-damaging" week...the Dow surges 1,700 points?? On what "news"? That some debatable reports suggested that the virus might be "flattening" in NY...even as masked shoppers throughout the country are standing in spaced-out lines OUTSIDE of the pharmacies and the supermarkets...waiting to get into the stores one-by-one? If the virus news dictate the direction of the stock market...and if the virus "flattening" reports are accurate...shouldn't we all be buying stocks with both hands right about now? And...if these "flattening" reports AREN'T accurate...how was the "all-knowing" stock market fooled so badly yesterday?

[PaceAdvantage]

In other news...isn't this whole virus thing played out already?

I mean...really...

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

In other news...isn't this whole virus thing played out already?

I mean...really...

You do know there's a lot more puppet MSM Bullshit still to be played out....The "wreckage" isn't severe enough yet, what will they think of next?..... How about this:

SAN BERNARDINO, Calif. — Residents in San Bernardino County are ordered to wear a face-covering when leaving home starting at midnight Wednesday, April 8, 2020.

According to the County Acting Health Officer, violation of the order is a crime punishable by up to a $1,000 fine or imprisonment up to 90 days, or both.


Read more:

https://www.vvng.com/san-bernardino-...irus-pandemic/

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Didn't the president and all the state government officials warn us that this week figures to be the worst week coronavirus-wise that we have yet experienced? Do "news" get any more negative than THAT? And on the very first day of this "ultra-damaging" week...the Dow surges 1,700 points?? On what "news"? That some debatable reports suggested that the virus might be "flattening" in NY...even as masked shoppers throughout the country are standing in spaced-out lines OUTSIDE of the pharmacies and the supermarkets...waiting to get into the stores one-by-one? If the virus news dictate the direction of the stock market...and if the virus "flattening" reports are accurate...shouldn't we all be buying stocks with both hands right about now? And...if these "flattening" reports AREN'T accurate...how was the "all-knowing" stock market fooled so badly yesterday?

The market is forward looking. This being the worse week is already in the market. I believe. I could be wrong it won’t be the first or last time. I do believe however that if NY sees a big spike down we go. As far as buying stocks go that would depend on the recession not turning into a depression. Unless you day trade which I don’t.
Having said all that if you want to buy look at software and healthcare.

[FakeNameChanged]

Watched Liz Klaman on CNBC give us more bad news that J.P.Morgan's economist said our economy is looking at a possible 40% decline. I could site numerous bad news reports in the last month on CNBC, and in every one the market has risen.

I mentioned back on 3/30 that my own indicators said the market was reversing, #1776 and again in #1858 that all indicators are green. The market leads the economy by 6-9 months. In other words the economy is a trailing or lagging indicator of the stock market. This market with all the bad news on the economy is a screaming BUY right now. Hopefully everyone has kept some powder dry.

[PaceAdvantage]

screaming buy?

I don't see how. Way too much uncertainty out there right now.

At this point, a retest of the lows could easily happen....the only reason the market has retraced almost 50% of its losses is because of positive virus news in the last 4 or 5 sessions.

Nobody really has a good assessment of the economic damage and how long that might take to repair.

I see it as way more likely we retest the lows then keep going up from here.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

screaming BUY

I agree with the "screaming" part not sure about the "buy."

[lamboguy]

at some point, the ounce price of gold will be even to that of the dow. if the dow is going to 5000, that will be where you find the price of gold. if the dow goes to 50,000, that also will be where you will find the price of gold.

this gold and dow have matched during the great depression and also in 1979. same thing gonna happen this time around.

your long term trade should be LONG GOLD and equal amounts SHORT DOW.

when this trade finally goes to even, it will be time to look for another one. my guess is that by that time gold will NOT BE any good either.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

screaming buy?

I don't see how. Way too much uncertainty out there right now.

At this point, a retest of the lows could easily happen....the only reason the market has retraced almost 50% of its losses is because of positive virus news in the last 4 or 5 sessions.

Nobody really has a good assessment of the economic damage and how long that might take to repair.

I see it as way more likely we retest the lows then keep going up from here.

Well I am "somewhat" hearing impaired. What about at least 4 or 5 really bad virus news days recently and the market soared upward? But I don't want to get into an argument. Everybody has to call it as they see it. And I listen to pretty much everyone.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

at some point, the ounce price of gold will be even to that of the dow. if the dow is going to 5000, that will be where you find the price of gold. if the dow goes to 50,000, that also will be where you will find the price of gold.

this gold and dow have matched during the great depression and also in 1979. same thing gonna happen this time around.

your long term trade should be LONG GOLD and equal amounts SHORT DOW.

when this trade finally goes to even, it will be time to look for another one. my guess is that by that time gold will NOT BE any good either.

Your track record with gold in the past has not been too good. I recall you calling for $2000 an oz. back in 2017-18?. And RGLD is still underwater. But you could hit one eventually.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

screaming buy?

I don't see how. Way too much uncertainty out there right now.

At this point, a retest of the lows could easily happen....the only reason the market has retraced almost 50% of its losses is because of positive virus news in the last 4 or 5 sessions.

Nobody really has a good assessment of the economic damage and how long that might take to repair.

I see it as way more likely we retest the lows then keep going up from here.

I agree with you about a retest. However another view is that this was the retest. The Dow S&P and the transports all have double bottoms with the December 2018 low. If that's case then the bottom is in.
Which is correct ? Who knows.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Well I am "somewhat" hearing impaired. What about at least 4 or 5 really bad virus news days recently and the market soared upward? But I don't want to get into an argument. Everybody has to call it as they see it. And I listen to pretty much everyone.

Actually it's been good news. New York continually reports that the numbers are expected to be nowhere near earlier projections. The hospitals aren't as pushed to the max as was feared...new case rates continue to fall in many countries around the world...I was under the impression that the virus news was more positive than negative...anyway, we all have our 2 cents, and those are mine.

The market will have the final say on who is right and who is wrong.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Actually it's been good news. New York continually reports that the numbers are expected to be nowhere near earlier projections. The hospitals aren't as pushed to the max as was feared...new case rates continue to fall in many countries around the world...I was under the impression that the virus news was more positive than negative...anyway, we all have our 2 cents, and those are mine.

The market will have the final say on who is right and who is wrong.

I totally agree news has been better than expected as to death counts. Economy not so much. Here just a couple quick examples I found if interested. Most if not all of these news clips were in the morning while the market was in session and one was over the weekend.

3/26-CNBC jobless claims soar to 3 million, record high.----BAD, right? Monster Up day

3/30-CNBC reports that Fed says job losses could hit 47 million, UE hit 32%-Terrible, Right? Another UP day in the market.

4/5- US news reports highest single day CV death toll-BAD? right.--Monster up day.
4/6- same day Janet Yellen says GDP could decline by 30%! -really bad--See above, Monster Up day.

4/9-Reuters The IMF chief says the pandemic will unleash the worst recession since the great Depression---Sounds Bad to me...right?--Market Gapped up-highest level yet since the fall......on bad news...

This took me about 30 minutes to find, and I can't disagree that they are wrong about our economy, but the stock market is not the economy , meaning it doesn't go hand in hand with the economy, it's usually leading it.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Your track record with gold in the past has not been too good. I recall you calling for $2000 an oz. back in 2017-18?. And RGLD is still underwater. But you could hit one eventually.

i think if you look back you will see that RGLD went to all time highs on January 2, 2020 before it pulled back and took off again.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i think if you look back you will see that RGLD went to all time highs on January 2, 2020 before it pulled back and took off again.

I think we're using different charts. you touted them on 10/5/19 when it closed at 128, on Jan 2, it was at 120.75 and dropping throughout the month finally dropping all the way to 60, and now back at 105. Posts #44 & #46 below

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...45991&page=3\\