Meadow calls Sartin con man

[46zilzal]

The addition of what was called the LONGSHOT detector did that

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...picking a single past performance line as a barometer for judging the ability of a horse is the height of folly.

AGREE wholeheartedly

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...picking a single past performance line as a barometer for judging the ability of a horse is the height of folly.

It also isn't too easy to look at a series of races and determine how to weigh them or what to expect today for that specific horse given all the different possible race conditions and trips in his prior races, all the possible form patterns, the age and experience of the horse, the trainer, etc...

You can put yourself into a coma.

I tend to focus on a horse's last race. If it's vague because of an extreme trip or the wrong conditions, I'll look further back for clarification. Then I'll look at the horse's overall record and try to figure out how likely the horse is to run back to that race (or better or worse).

It's tough to be consistent without some guiding rules, but it's tough to create rules that apply to all horses.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The con men only exist because people like to be lied to. The truth is often very discouraging to hear...so...people will readily pay someone to tell them irresistible lies.

I used to look down at the con man...hastily accusing him of criminally fleecing the gullible public of funds which they might otherwise have needed for other, more "worthwhile" things. It took me many years to realize that the con man provides a valuable service...for which he deserves to be handsomely rewarded. He supplies "hope" to a group of people who can't face the reality of life as it is...and who need to live in the fantasy world that only lies could provide. None of us can live without hope.

I think the same would apply to psychics.

EDIT: NO POLITICS

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Back in 1988, after experiencing a big winning summer playing 5 days a week, but experiencing no significant growth in my BR, I called Howard and asked for a psychological consult.

At first he wanted to talk about my handicapping and betting. He was shocked when I told him that I really logged every bet. When had I proven to his satisfaction that I was hitting 67% winners (2 horses or 1 horse win/place) with average odds of 6/5, he turned to the psychological side.

He suggested that I call my mother and ask for permission to win.
I told him that it would be a long distance call since she had died 13 years earlier.

He said, "So, write her a letter. And does it really matter? She'd want you to win, right?"

He went on to say, "If you were actually my psychological client, I would recommend what is called re-parenting, or re-scripting your early childhood."

This became a real milestone in my life in December, 1989. It was at that time I was given one of those "pick something from this catalog" gifts. As I browsed through the catalog, one item caught my eye.

The Subliminal Winner

The 2nd tape in the series was titled: Re-parenting: Rescripting Early Childhood. I ordered the set and it literally changed my life.

Life was... difficult back then. Two teenagers, sharing a bedroom, and a 6-year old girl sleeping on the couch of a 2-bedroom apartment.

I was programming day and night then and was completely immersed in those tapes. I literally listened to them all day while I was programming.

On day 3, one of my sons walks in and says... "Dad, what's going on with you? Something is different." He asks me to stand up.

He says, "You really look different. You're standing more erect. Your shoulders are back. It's like you're a different person."

I am telling you that they changed my life.

If I had not heard DOCTOR Sartin's words, those tapes would probably not have been my selection from that catalog.


Dave

PS: For the record, I have found those tapes to be the ONLY Subliminals that ever had any positive effect on me. I believe that most are pure garbage. These are different.

Great post, Dave! I guess each person is different but I've been helped by certain books and tapes that had inspirational messages. In fact, if not for Norman Vicent Peale's classic book, The Power of Positive Thinking, I would never have become a professional handicapper. Besides the positive thinking, Peale outlined a way to get your foot in the door of the industry you coveted. I followed his step-by-step instructions exactly the way he said to implement them and within months I had a job in the racing business.

About two months ago I read a quote by former Navy Seal Dave Goggins on Facebook and I was intrigued enough to buy his book, Can't Hurt Me: Master Your Mind and Defy The Odds on kindle. Since I read that book, my workouts are harder and I went from working out two or three days a week to working out almost every day, and I get my work done earlier because I'm more focused.

[pandy]

I never met or communicated with Doc Sartin but I did talk to Jim The Hat a few times. I think there's a place for velocity style ratings, especially for players who want to look for big longshots in exotics. I use them for that purpose. I don't use MPH, I developed my own ratings. They have their flaws but so does everything else.

[classhandicapper]

The biggest issues I have with velocity and similar ratings is that they put more value on quarterly times than some other pace ratings.

1. The run up is especially critical to the 1st quarter times and we don't always have good run up data

2. It's hard to know how to adjust for turns.

22 on a straight is not the same at 22 on the turn, but I have yet to find a formula that tells me how much to adjust times on the turn for both how much the turn tends to slow a horse down and what the difference in energy consumed is if the times are the same.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's hard to know how to adjust for turns.

22 on a straight is not the same at 22 on the turn, but I have yet to find a formula that tells me how much to adjust times on the turn for both how much the turn tends to slow a horse down and what the difference in energy consumed is if the times are the same.

Correct, as you won't find a formula for the turns....Replays are the answer, that's it.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by pandy

I never met or communicated with Doc Sartin but I did talk to Jim The Hat a few times. I think there's a place for velocity style ratings, especially for players who want to look for big longshots in exotics. I use them for that purpose. I don't use MPH, I developed my own ratings. They have their flaws but so does everything else.

It goes to prove a very COMMON thing: THERE IS NO ONE WAY TO DO ANYTHING THAT ACTUALLY WORKS

[Half Smoke]

to me, betting horses is not an endeavor where I'm trying to look at various issues re speed and pace with exact calculations

I'm looking for an advantage (pricing error in the odds) that is fairly substantial - that normally won't be affected by fractional calculations

I see a perceived tiny fractional advantage as likely to disappear in the reality of a race with all the multitude of possibilities that can occur


in using the word fractional I'm not referring to the timed fractions of a race
I'm referring to calculations of some sort that reveal tiny differences

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

to me, betting horses is not an endeavor where I'm trying to look at various issues re speed and pace with exact calculations

I'm looking for an advantage (pricing error in the odds) that is fairly substantial - that normally won't be affected by fractional calculations

I see a perceived tiny fractional advantage as all but disappearing in the reality of a race with all the multitude of possibilities that can occur

AGREED wholeheartedly...So many start to split hairs over and over on the handicapping side and forget to spend as much time on what this ultimately IS: GAMBLING

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by cj

I think it had more to do with limitations of computing power (or human computing power and the time involved). It would be silly to rely on one line and ignore the rest of the data with the tech available today.

using 1 or 10 pace lines, would never have been limited by computing power.



maybe manual data entry .

[cj]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

using 1 or 10 pace lines, would never have been limited by computing power.



maybe manual data entry .

As late as 2003 when I was stationed in Saudi Arabia and working on my old Pace Figures program, it would take 4 to 5 minutes to complete a race card of 10 PP lines (max) for each horse. I could never be sure if the program was hanging due to a coding error or just not finished yet. On a day like the Derby with huge fields it make take 10 minutes. On a machine now, it takes mere seconds.

And the early stuff I saw computerized by Sartin guys was WAY before 2003. I can only imagine how long your typical home computer back then would have taken. And the manual entry was the standard back then which was my main point.

[46zilzal]

Took a very long time with manual entry (I started with Phase III) and after a few days your finger tips were very sore.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The con men only exist because people like to be lied to. The truth is often very discouraging to hear...so...people will readily pay someone to tell them irresistible lies.

I used to look down at the con man...hastily accusing him of criminally fleecing the gullible public of funds which they might otherwise have needed for other, more "worthwhile" things. It took me many years to realize that the con man provides a valuable service...for which he deserves to be handsomely rewarded. He supplies "hope" to a group of people who can't face the reality of life as it is...and who need to live in the fantasy world that only lies could provide. None of us can live without hope.

"Honest your honor. I was performing a public service"