Speed Figures Revisited

[highnote]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

When you say "do you use", does that include looking for situations where the popular figures are wrong?

I like to bet against "fast" horses a lot of people will like and on "slow" horses that people will underrate if I think the figures are wrong or misleading.

One of my biggest exacta scores happened as a result of betting against Thorograph sheets. Two of my acquaintances were using them. I liked other horses than they liked from the sheets. In that instance I was correct. They were incredulous. Thinking back on it, I remember they kind of thumbed their noses at me and thought I was just lucky. Maybe I was? LOL

I am sure the sheets are very good most of the time. Nobody is right every time.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by highnote

One of my biggest exacta scores happened as a result of betting against Thorograph sheets. Two of my acquaintances were using them. I liked other horses than they liked from the sheets. In that instance I was correct. They were incredulous. Thinking back on it, I remember they kind of thumbed their noses at me and thought I was just lucky. Maybe I was? LOL

I am sure the sheets are very good most of the time. Nobody is right every time.

So I guess that your friends handicapping was so bad that a good strategy was betting against anything they liked.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

So I guess that your friends handicapping was so bad that a good strategy was betting against anything they liked.

In that case, yes. I wish it was that easy all the time!

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Well, I checked 3 myself, so yes.

So how are we supposed to interpret the results? When one speed figure gets lots of votes is it supposed to mean people like them to bet on them or are they poor bets and bets againsts?

[Tom]

After you get enough votes, the relative favorability of each will sort itself out.
I'm going to start a thread about one of the figures and seek input, but I want to see which one will be of most interest.

[Speed Figure]

You really should redo it and add HDW.

[Tom]

Just vote other.

[pandy]

As someone who did speed figures for all the major tracks for about ten years, I'll say that there are more turf races now, particularly at certain tracks. There are more at Woodbine, more at all of the NYRA tracks. I'm not sure what the percentage change is nationwide but there are certainly a higher percentage of turf races than there was when I was doing figures back over twenty years ago.

And that means that the speed figures for the main track races are likely to be LESS accurate, less reliable. For instance, if there are 10 races on a day and only three are dirt races, the chances of having an accurate track variant is much less than if you had 7 or 8 dirt races to work with.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by pandy

As someone who did speed figures for all the major tracks for about ten years, I'll say that there are more turf races now, particularly at certain tracks. There are more at Woodbine, more at all of the NYRA tracks. I'm not sure what the percentage change is nationwide but there are certainly a higher percentage of turf races than there was when I was doing figures back over twenty years ago.

And that means that the speed figures for the main track races are likely to be LESS accurate, less reliable. For instance, if there are 10 races on a day and only three are dirt races, the chances of having an accurate track variant is much less than if you had 7 or 8 dirt races to work with.

That is a big problem.
Even bigger is NYRA having two courses at each track, you might get 1 sprint on the inner and two on the main in one day.
Unless you make figs like CJ, having multiple data points, yo are up against it.
I just started trying to do pace figs for turf sprints, and the results are mixed. A lot of days, the inner and main are close enough to have fairly reliable figs, but other days, one race is way out of line and you just have no idea if the figs is good or not.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

To me , as long as the figures have structure and validity ...
you can make them work with a "scientific" approach....

some of you will understand what I'm saying

Mike

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEPmA3USJdI

[PhantomOnTour]

I made figs for almost 15yrs and finally gave up. Too time consuming for me, and the reason stated above by Pandy is why I quit.
My game hasn't been the same since.

I'll say this having used the free BRIS pp's for the past few years:
NO THANK YOU! In my humblest of opinions, BRIS fits are not very good.
I've seen too many runners with competitive BRIS figs look like also rans when I look at other numbers for the same race.

The best thing about making pace & speed figs is that it forces you to look closely at every race every day. You will undoubtedly discover things about your track, your horses and your connections at whatever track you're making figs for.

It's time I started making my HumNums again (Humble Numbers)

[pandy]

Yes, as Phantom says, when I did speed figures, I did know more about the horses and saw things that I certainly would miss now. I was particularly aware of things at other tracks, like bias and trips, that really helped with shippers. Some of that I can make up with online replays, but doing my own figures did give me a perspective that's hard to replace. But, I wouldn't do it again, too time-consuming and tedious and DRF Plus gives you each horse's last three Beyers, so if you are using Brisnet or Timeform, you can subscribe to DRF Plus, which is a bargain, and compare them.

[sjk]

I still make figures. Have not bought a racing form since 1994.

I have always played only the dirt races and in the past there were plenty of playable races nearly every day.

Between the reduced number of dirt races carded and the smaller field size (and fewer races run overall) there are not that many days when playing the races seems like a good use of my time.

[bpiets]

I use the track times final times but mostly who each horse ran against but the owners and trainers of the horses play a big part of the evaluations....the jock is also an Important part when a top joc gets onto a horse in the graded races and of course if a leading joc has not won for a few days as they all want to be leading jock at the end of a meet....etc...as do owners / trainers...

[PressThePace]

In years past, there were ample opportunities to make $$ for those with the ability to make good figures. Today, the advantage gained (in terms of profit) are negated in my opinion. I've used dirt figs from BRIS for a while. TFUS figs are exceptional for turf races, making races on the lawn more playable for me.