Tacitus

[Robert Fischer]

I can't fault Ortiz for that trip...

Yea, if you had a time-machine, you'd try something different, given the known outcome...

He was sort of 'doomed' by the fact that he was on much the best horse.

You got the trainer telling him "just stay in the clear, baby"

You got everyone saying "oh, the post draw don't matter in the Belmont"

He's on the best horse, and he happens to be a sluggish one-paced sort. Joevia was ridden to win, not to be a rabbit. No one really made for a premature 'tackling' move. And the track itself was kind to the inside.

You just had this stubborn 'pack' of horses, and nowhere to really go. He could have galloped from the gate and took up a deep closing position, or he could have moved early and unexpectedly attended the pace. If you fired up the time machine (and then for some crazy reason used it to go back to the Belmont and not perhaps a more interesting point in time...), sure, knowing what we know now, you'd try an unorthodox tactic to see if you could change the outcome.

I wasn't good enough to visualize all that... 9/5 or whatever he went off at was a generous overlay in my radar. I can't fault Ortiz for not somehow visualizing the race better than myself, and then not applying that foresight to doing something unorthodox (which myself and others would criticize had he lost in a different fashion).

[Fightingirish51195]

Ran a better race than anybody in my opinion

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

According to Trakus, WoW: 57 feet or about 7 lengths
Tacticus: 65 feet or about 8 lengths
That about matches my own observation from the video.

People always say this but you're not going to get the perfect trip, so clearly it's not "put Tacitus 8 lengths ahead of his finish" it's more like

"What's the common extra ground a 2nd place finisher has compared to a 1st, or how many feet do closers give up typically by not running on or near the lead?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

People always say this but you're not going to get the perfect trip, so clearly it's not "put Tacitus 8 lengths ahead of his finish" it's more like

"What's the common extra ground a 2nd place finisher has compared to a 1st, or how many feet do closers give up typically by not running on or near the lead?

Although most figures attempt a level of precision that is difficult to actually achieve, certain heuristics can, at times, easily give a ballpark performance estimate.

Tacitus had a significantly below average trip, and his performance can be safely/conservatively said to have clearly been better than his literal result.

Even with the significantly below average trip, Tacitus only finished one length behind a rival who had a significantly above average ride/trip.

It's very easy to look at the race and say that Tacitus was clearly best.

It's less obvious to know what to do with Sir Winston and the other horses.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Although most figures attempt a level of precision that is difficult to actually achieve, certain heuristics can, at times, easily give a ballpark performance estimate.

Tacitus had a significantly below average trip, and his performance can be safely/conservatively said to have clearly been better than his literal result.

Even with the significantly below average trip, Tacitus only finished one length behind a rival who had a significantly above average ride/trip.

It's very easy to look at the race and say that Tacitus was clearly best.

It's less obvious to know what to do with Sir Winston and the other horses.

It's pretty easy to evaluate Sir Winston's performance as his figure does not require any adjustment for ground loss, pace or traffic problems. What you saw was what you got. A couple of others required some ground loss adjustment; Mister Fencer was far off the even pace but that's the only way he can race. War of Will was affected when cut off but he was not running his good race anyway, as Casse indicated. All in all, a pretty easy race to make figures for.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

People always say this but you're not going to get the perfect trip, so clearly it's not "put Tacitus 8 lengths ahead of his finish" it's more like

"What's the common extra ground a 2nd place finisher has compared to a 1st, or how many feet do closers give up typically by not running on or near the lead?

Those ground loss numbers already represent the extra ground covered by the 2nd and 3rd place horses covered compared to the winner. Not some perfect trip. That's how Trakus measures it.
That also has nothing to do with how close the horses were running to the lead during the race

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

It's pretty easy to evaluate Sir Winston's performance as his figure does not require any adjustment for ground loss, pace or traffic problems. What you saw was what you got.

That's where we disagree, on this one.

I think Sir Winston significantly benefited from his trip/ride.

(eased right over to the rail, cruised, moved up through a seam on the rail, aggressively swung 3-wide upon entering...)

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Those ground loss numbers already represent the extra ground covered by the 2nd and 3rd place horses covered compared to the winner. Not some perfect trip. That's how Trakus measures it.
That also has nothing to do with how close the horses were running to the lead during the race

I understand that. You don't understand my question, which is generally, "What figure does Tacitus really get in your mind?" given that he was by all accounts (for those in this thread) easily the "best horse" in the race?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

I understand that. You don't understand my question, which is generally, "What figure does Tacitus really get in your mind?" given that he was by all accounts (for those in this thread) easily the "best horse" in the race?

I dont use the Belmont for future handicapping in terms of figure. I cannot see how a figure at a 12F will relate to 8.5-9 F races which dominate the season.

However, to me his trip would be at least a 2-3 bump for the trip, and Sir Winston would be a 2-3 point deduction.

This factors in how good the rail was, not just the loss of ground.

[deelo]

Tacitus is the next Gun Runner. He'll do nothing but move forward the rest of his career.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by deelo

Tacitus is the next Gun Runner. He'll do nothing but move forward the rest of his career.

I disagree. Tacitus is a grinder who wants to go a marathon distance. Unfortunately for him, most top dirt races are 1 1/4 miles.

Gun Runner was special in his older years and could demolish fields with his speed. Tacitus will never be like that.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I disagree.

Same. I figure he's Tonalist Junior.

[deelo]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I disagree. Tacitus is a grinder who wants to go a marathon distance. Unfortunately for him, most top dirt races are 1 1/4 miles.

Gun Runner was special in his older years and could demolish fields with his speed. Tacitus will never be like that.

FINE then he's the next Guneverra lol

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

I understand that. You don't understand my question, which is generally, "What figure does Tacitus really get in your mind?" given that he was by all accounts (for those in this thread) easily the "best horse" in the race?

I had already posted the TG figures for the top Belmont finishers which take ground loss into account. I consider them to be accurate. The lower the figure the better the performance

Here are the TG figures for the Belmont top finishers:

1) Sir Winston 3
2) Tacitus 1
3) Jovia 3 3/4
4) Tax 3 1/4
5) Master Fencer 3 1/2
6) Spinoff 2 3/4

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

That's where we disagree, on this one.

I think Sir Winston significantly benefited from his trip/ride.

(eased right over to the rail, cruised, moved up through a seam on the rail, aggressively swung 3-wide upon entering...)

So we actually agree. Sir Winston got an excellent trip so he gets no extra points for ground loss, pace or trouble.